(Apologies for the short preview today – I am running a bit behind schedule)
The regular season is nearing its end, and so the Rockets travel to the desert for a game that could guarantee them the 6th seed. The equation: win tonight and if the Warriors lose one of their last two games (vs San Antonio and @ Portland) then they’re locked into their spot. While there is a school of thought that says they would be more likely to advance against a banged-up Spurs team, the Nuggets (who only need to win one more game to guarantee the third seed) have their own injury problems and that match-up is likely to be ridiculously entertaining. The Rockets management has given no indication they’d prefer to strategically lose, so I can’t imagine we’ll see anything other than 100% from the team tonight.
That said, it is the second night of a back-to-back, a scenario in which the Rockets have been poor this year (6-14 record in games where they’ve played the night before). Fortunately, their romp against Sacramento was comprehensive enough that the starters could be rested in the 4th quarter, so they should hopefully have something left in the tank.
Their opponents this evening are in full-on tank mode at the moment. The Suns have had nothing to play for for some time – historically an unusual feeling out in Phoenix – and now have an eye on getting lucky with the lottery. Since they beat Houston on the 9th of March, they’ve gone 2-15. In their defense, it should be noted that Marcin Gortat has been injured for the entirety of that stretch, and his absence leaves them with a gaping hole at centre. But despite his noises about returning, it seems likely given their current situation that he will be shut down for the rest of the season.
Key Questions:
- This is the second team in a row with several former Rockets on the roster. In the teams’ last meeting they played very well – can the Rockets limit them this time around? Particularly Scola, who’s wily post moves will make life difficult for whichever of the Rockets’ many PFs ends up with the majority of the minutes.
- Beasley is one of those players who is usually terrible but every once in a while can take over a game. Will we see disinterested, pull-up-for-bad-jumpers Beasley, or dangerous, attacking-the-rim and making-baskets Beasley? These days it’s usually the former, but if the latter shows up, watch out?
- Will Lin and Harden have the energy to turn on the driving game? The Suns have a few competent defensive players in Dragic, Dudley and Tucker who could make it difficult to get that initial penetration, particularly on tired legs. But once that’s been surmounted the interior Suns defense is porous. O’Neal is experienced but his abilities are on the decline, and neither Morris twin is a particularly good help defender. If the Rockets’ guards can get past their men, they should profit.
- Who will be making their threes? As we know by now, the Rockets can struggle if the three ball isn’t falling. If a few players can make some outside shots, particularly if they’re at the 4, then it will make the game a lot easier.
- Have the wings got back to fitness? We’ve seen that when healthy Parsons and Delfino help to turbo-charge the Rockets’ offense. However, both have been struggling with injuries lately and that has left a void at the wing positions. They need to get back to their midseason form for the Rockets to stand a chance of progressing in the playoffs, and that starts with working their way back to that level in games like tonight.