Phoenix Suns 118, Houston Rockets 110

By rahat huq | January 7, 2010 at 9:09 am

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Despite the result, this was one of the most entertaining games of the year.

The Suns burst out of the gates, building a double digit lead before Aaron Brooks caught fire and brought the Houston Rockets back.  The Rockets offense exploded upon Carl Landry and Chase Budinger’s entrances and the team built its own cushion.

The Rockets’ draft class of 2007 went nuts in this one combining for 65. Aaron Brooks had 34 points with 6 triples, while Carl Landry poured in 31 off the bench.

The Rockets choked in the end, but this was a fairly productive win.

Random Musings:

If I can’t write the entire post until the morning after, I like to at least put up a very brief recap immediately after the game to allow any of our readers the opportunity to vent in that critical period.  I withheld from even this last night out of fear that my anger would pollute my entire thought process and overcome my better judgment.

Once again last night, I made the decision to make no mention of Trevor Ariza.  Despite another maddening performance, I stuck to my guns and made no notes.  This was until I was left with no choice at the 50 second mark of the 4th.  I really wish I was making this stuff up at this point, but those of you who watched this game know of exactly what I’m speaking.  After what transpired, I was overcome with an anger that I hadn’t felt this entire season.

After falling behind by ten, the Rockets once more valiantly fought their way back, miraculously cutting the lead to four with just 50 seconds remaining.  Having possession of the ball, the team somehow still had a chance to win this game.  The red hot Aaron Brooks dribbled on the left wing, looking inside for the equally hot Carl Landry.  Having nowhere to go, Brooks passed back out top to Ariza.  It pains me to even revisit what then took place.

Ariza didn’t just shoot the ’3′ against coverage.  While that would have been maddening enough, that action would have been innocuous in comparison to what he really took the liberty to attempt.

With 50 seconds remaining in the game, with his team down by 4, with his team having the momentum, with his two nearest teammates having combined for over 60 points, having himself gone 5-13 from the floor up to that point, and having no basketball capacity for anything more than the utter basics, Trevor Ariza decided to square up his defender – Tracy McGrady 2003 style – hold the ball for what seemed like eternity, and then rise up for the contested 3 pointer, killing his team’s chances in a game they deserved to win.

It’s reached the point with Ariza where I’m starting to question my own assumptions.  It’s not about poor shooting.  A lot of guys shoot bad, but, while it hurts the team, its at least tolerable because it comes within the framework of their responsibilities.  Rafer Alston is a classic example.  He hurt the team many a nights, but from an analytical perspective, it wasn’t too painful because it was clear to understand what was going on: the defense was rotating off of Alston and thus Alston had no choice but to continue shooting those open shots.  The greater point here is that poor shooting, even poor play is tolerable.

What’s difficult to understand is when a player is given freedom of which he has no business having.  There’s just no excuse for allowing Trevor Ariza to actually square up his defender late in a close game as if he has even a modicum of capacity for the feat.

So naturally, I’m beginning to wonder if I’m wrong about this whole thing and Rick Adelman has given his blessing and told Trevor he is this team’s best player.  I don’t know but that’s the only real plausible explanation.  Enough on this topic as it has taken a toll on my blood pressure.

Carl Landry was again unhuman, winning his matchup with Amare Stoudemire.  I hesitate to say it, but Landry is actually more skilled than Stoudemire.  He’s not better (at least not yet…gulp) as Stoudemire possesses a superior combination of size and power, but it was painfully clear which of the two has the more diverse repertoire.  Carl basically showed us everything last night: jump hooks, drives, dunks, and some very impressive power moves where he threw off his defender by delivering a hard initial blow after receiving the ball.  The man just continues to amaze.

Chase Budinger also looked very good in his 22 minutes, scoring 9 points off the bench.  The Rockets’ offense simply just looks the way it was envisioned to be run when Budinger is on the court.  It comes as no surprise then that he is a part of the team’s 3 most efficient offensive 5 man units.  Chase was almost tailor-made for the Princeton offense.  He can shoot the ’3′, shoot jumpshots off screens, slash off the ball, pass, and already has one of the highest IQ’s on the team.  He’s the anti-Ariza and I think he will be a starter in this league at some point.

Final note: There was an absolutely awesome camera angle with 1 minute remaining in the 3rd quarter for which I am very grateful to the Phoenix Suns‘ television producers for providing.  If there was to be a DVD about the 2009-2010 Houston Rockets, this sequence would suffice as far as actual game footage.

The camera angle was from beneath the hoop. We saw Carl Landry face up against Robin Lopez out on the block.  He then drove and lost control of the ball at the rim.  He regained it and missed.  Andersen grabbed it and missed.  Landry once more snared the board and missed.  Lowry then came flying in and brought down the board.  All amidst a sea of white jerseys.

My description does no justice to the possession.  It was microcosmic of the determination and grit that has punctuated this team’s surprise season and the camera angle really captured those qualities to their fullest.  The Suns’ announcer remarked, “I have never seen a team show more tenacity.”  I would have to agree.

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Chronicle recap

game flow

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LA Lakers 88, Houston Rockets 79

By rahat huq | January 6, 2010 at 9:36 am

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No surprises here: the Houston Rockets exhibited their usual valor and lost to the defending champion LA Lakers.

Carl Landry led the way with 19, including 13 in the 1st half, almost singlehandedly keeping the team in the game in the 2nd.  Andrew Bynum was too big inside for the Rockets as he finished with 24 points.  Lamar Odom had 17 points and 19 rebounds.  Kobe Bryant had a rough shooting night going 9-23 from the field for 22 points.

The flow of this one was pretty odd as there were at least 5 occasions when the team went down by double digits, only to come roaring back within minutes.  As Ernie Johnson described during a break from the NBAtv studio, “Houston is like a boxer.”

Random Musings:

  • I had some mixed feelings when the news broke that Pau Gasol would not be in uniform.  As a fan, I want this team to succeed and so naturally, am pleased by any factor that might facilitate that outcome.  At the same time, the subjective emotions that characterize ‘fandom’ are anathema to any type of analytical integrity.  I already knew this team was pretty good, but I wanted to see how far they still had to climb.  To that end, a game without Gasol is pretty much a waste of time.
  • Interesting stat: the Lakers’ announcers mention prior to tip-off that the Houston Rockets are an astonishing 11-1 this year in games following a loss.  Incredible – especially for such a young team.  It really quantifies a certain level of focus that we can already observe with our eyes.
  • My main observation from this game pertains to one Carl Landry.  He showed two moves last night that made my jaw drop; we’re talking shades of Hakeem Olajuwon.
  1. With 3:31 remaining in the 2nd, Carl faced up on the right block, drove hard to his left, put on the breaks, and then flipped back around (off his right pivot foot) for the short hook.  This is a move for which only the top 99th percentile of big men in the league have the capacity to attempt.  In fact, I’ll go as far as to say that I’ve only seen Hakeem actually pull this off.  Landry usually spins with the dribble – a fairly easy move to pull off and done routinely by most wings.  The distinction here is that he actually turned after stopping, exhibiting the footwork to gather himself fluidly enough for the shot attempt.  I don’t think he actually made the shot, but process overrides result.  As far as I’m concerned, this was the most significant play of last night’s game.  We didn’t even know he had this in him…
  2. With 7:22 remaining in the 4th, Carl faces up once more, drives with his right hand, spins back to his left, and fades away for the shot.  My jaw drops.  He misses this shot as well, but again, he’s showing us moves that we didn’t even know he had.

  • The evolution of Carl Landry has easily been the most striking theme of this season.  He’s gradually revealing jump hooks, driving spins, and driving fadeaways, to add to the jumpshooting and grab-the-board-against-4-guys-putback abilities we already knew he had.  It’s as if, prior to the season, he wrote a novel, and is now following his plan to release it piecemeal.  At this rate, I’m almost expecting to see a ‘Dreamshake’ by the first week of March.
  • I want to explain how I write these recaps.  I sit down with my laptop while watching the game and jot down notes if anything catches my eye.  I then put meat on those general notes after the final buzzer.  What I just failed to mention is the internal battle I wage on a daily basis.  Prior to tip-off each night, I calmly tell myself, “Rahat, just don’t mention Trevor.  Focus on other aspects; don’t beat a dead horse.”  Ariza always forces me into losing this battle with my conscience.  He was 5-14 tonight, but these numbers don’t do justice to just how bad he was.  He took a ‘3’ from the corner against heavy coverage early on that just left me shaking my head.  After he actually fell down on a post-up with 3:10 remaining in the 4th, a thought came to mind: before Trevor Ariza, never before did the phrase “he has bad footwork” have such literal meaning.  He’s not just awkward.  The guy actually routinely slips and falls while making his moves.  It’s just reaching laughable proportions right now.  Early on, he showcased his signature ‘stop-and-slide’ on multiple occasions, a quickly rising favorite of mine from his arsenal.  The ‘stop-and-slide’ basically entails Trevor stopping, losing his balance, and actually sliding off the other foot as he struggles to regain balance.  I couldn’t make this up if I tried.  I think Ariza serves as the perfect foil to Carl Landry in this strange season, as, while the latter almost seems to be holding back to further tease his audience through the season’s advance, the former finds new means for futility on a nightly basis.

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box score

Chronicle recap

LA Times piece on Rockets

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Discerning Morey’s Philosophy – Part 2

By rahat huq | January 4, 2010 at 10:51 pm

This post is a continuation of a series entitled ‘Discerning Morey’s Philosophy.’

On Draft Night 2006, I had described news of the Battier-Gay trade as “the moment I had completely lost faith in the competence of management.”

It’s rather humorous to consider just how much my tune has changed.

After a decade of mismanagement, the team appears headed back in the right direction under the guidance of Daryl Morey.

Morey’s is an unprecedented approach.  Yet still, so little is known of his philosophy.

If success is borne from some madness, does this not beseech the quest for its method?

More Questions to Ponder

A natural starting point for our discussion is Daryl Morey’s decision to continue building this team around Yao.  Prior to his latest setback, the center had already had an extensive injury history.  Even more troubling were the odds he faced – most ‘giants’ in NBA history have had their careers shortened by foot problems.

Daryl Morey was certainly aware of this and had had the opportunity to trade Yao last year while he was in good health and for his full market value.  Yet he still retained him.  Why?

On the surface, this does not seem like a rational decision.  Every time Yao Ming steps onto an NBA court, his value depreciates because his risk for injury increases [with the added wear.] It’s certainly possible that Morey felt that because dominant low post scorers were so scarce and valuable that this risk was justified.  Still, I have a difficult time accepting that a mind like Morey’s would invest such a significant proportion of his cap space into such a volatile asset.

The more plausible explanation points to the lucrative Chinese business partnerships Yao’s presence on the roster affords to owner Les Alexander.  If the call to retain Yao was ownership imposed, this stands as the closest comparison in our study to the financial constraints placed upon Billy Beane.  In a league with no limit, Beane had no money.  Through keeping Yao, Morey might just have been forced to operate with less in a sport with a cap.

With the decision on Yao backfiring, we are brought to the strategy for replacing him.  In the 7’6 center, the team lost its only shot blocking and low post presence.  Yet Morey’s response was to sign a jump shooting Australian rookie and insert the 6’6 Chuck Hayes into the starting lineup.  Wouldn’t common sense dictate that he at least try to acquire an established inside presence?

Speaking on the loss of slugger Jason Giambi, Billy Beane once said that “the important thing is not to recreate the individual….the important thing is to recreate the aggregate.”

With the limited resources at his disposal, Daryl Morey could have never found a player that could duplicate all of Yao’s talents.  Rather than trying to replace Yao with a similar but inferior player, perhaps the most efficient solution was to put a premium on the attribute of Yao that most critically needed to be replaced?

The numbers suggest that Yao’s greatest impact was on the defensive end.  It could very well have been determined that extending defensive specialist Chuck Hayes’ minutes was the one route which would most significantly impact the team’s expected total output.

Whatever the case, rather than trying to mimic the recipe from last year, Morey decided that things would have to be done very differently this season.

Speaking of last year, I should also touch on the decision to trade veteran point guard Rafer Alston in midseason.  Few general managers would have had the gumption to deal their starting point guard in the middle of a playoff run.  One might surmise that the Rockets had mailed it in upon the announcement of McGrady’s surgery, but were that the case, the team surely would have also dealt the soon-to-be free agent, Ron Artest.

Alston had been the starter for four years while his eventual replacement, Aaron Brooks, was still being confused with the former New Orleans Saints’ quarterback.  Unless Alston was just that bad, maybe what we revere as ‘experience’ really isn’t as critical as conventional wisdom would suggest?  After all, what exactly defines experience?  How does one quantify its benefits in relation to the production brought by a younger, more talented player?

If we’re delving into basketball existentialism, then now would probably be an appropriate time to ask what exactly is a ‘shooting guard.’  No other general manager would start both Trevor Ariza and Shane Battier in tandem at the wings.  The two are unequivocally the worst ball-handling swingman duo in the league.  Daryl Morey knows this.  Does this decision illustrate contempt for the traditional basketball roles?

Might there be a belief that what is typically expected to come from one particular source can simply be replaced in the aggregate from other avenues?  Perhaps Ariza and Battier’s combined defensive impact was projected to offset the sacrificed expected output of an average conventional ball-handling wing?  This line of reasoning would render the traditional basketball role obsolete.

One could again counter that the team’s decision to start Trevor and Shane in tandem was rooted in apathy; that they didn’t care to compete in this lost season.  But were that the case, wouldn’t Morey have simply dealt Battier for younger players?

So we must now explore the decision to retain veterans such as Luis Scola and Battier while simultaneously ushering in this era of rebuilding.  It reeks of confidence, but would the team have not been better off in the long run by selling off its aging parts and positioning itself for a higher lottery pick?

Perhaps Daryl Morey is saying that lottery picks are overvalued commodities; that they are not worth their price of acquisition: lost time.  Perhaps the odds of finding a contributor later in the draft are comparable to the odds of finding one in the late lottery?

If you feel that the odds of landing a ‘star’ player through the lottery aren’t relatively high, and you know that using your methods, you can find a contributor at a later draft slot, is it not rational to place a higher premium on the culture developed through competitiveness than on the slim chance of landing a ‘star’ by ‘tanking’?

Finally, we’ll close with the issue of that which we call a ‘star.’  No team in the modern era has boasted a roster wherein each player’s production proportionately correlated with his earnings.  But does precedent in a changing game serve as a sufficient ideological deterrent?

Intellectual competitive advantage in an inefficient market might make the prospect of winning through unconventional means as probabilistic as ultimate success through the sacrifice of time in the quest for a true ‘star.’

We don’t know if this is the case, but of course, with our subject, Daryl Morey, so very little is truly known.

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New Orleans Hornets 99, Houston Rockets 95

By rahat huq | January 3, 2010 at 8:26 am

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Houston Rockets 97, Dallas Mavericks 94; A Note on Iguodala

By rahat huq | December 31, 2009 at 9:35 pm

In my opinion, this was the most significant win of the season for the Houston Rockets.

Aaron Brooks led all scorers with 30 points including 6 triples.  Dirk Nowitzki was held to 3-12 from the field for just 11 points.

After surrendering a double digit 3rd quarter lead, the Rockets held on in the 4th to secure the victory.

Random Musings:

Typically, I offer my perspective of each game in the form of independent observations.  Today, that will not be the case because the significance of this win was as a whole:  I thought this was the biggest victory of the year for the Houston Rockets.

With wins over the Lakers and Cleveland, Houston has beaten teams superior to the Dallas Mavericks.  But in my opinion, this win carries far greater implications.  The Lakers are a team against whom the Rockets had already proven [in last year’s playoffs] to match up favorably.  This particular Rockets team, without Yao Ming and Artest, prior to the win against Cleveland, had no track record against the Cavaliers, so there was no extant barometer to indicate team progression.

Last night’s win over Dallas stands as the biggest of the year because it came over a team against whom the Rockets had struggled earlier.  The win at Dallas showed mettle, but it came without Dirk in the lineup.  This win signified an ability to adjust against a superior foe.  The game really invokes the memory of the Francis-era Rockets for whom the complete opposite was the case.

In beating a Mavericks squad at full health, this win, against the very fitting backdrop of the New Year, marked the most significant milestone to date of the Rockets’ season.

Only the early win at Utah compares in gravity as a true ‘turning point.’  After giving off the appearance of a sure-fire lottery finish [on opening night against Portland] the domination against the Jazz was the night when the Houston Rockets signaled that this season, they would not lay down.  Last night, they told the basketball world that they were something more than just an overachiever.

An important element of the game was that the Rockets actually choked.  The team went cold in the 3rd quarter, squandering a double-digit lead to find themselves trailing.  It appeared to simply be a different rendition of the same script.  Yet the Rockets found a way to recover and win, and even more importantly, they actually looked decisive in the process.

Rockets fans have become far too familiar with the sight of the offense bogging down late in close games, the players standing hesitantly, all after flowing so smoothly through three quarters.

On Thursday night, they had a plan.  The team ran an unconventional lineup featuring the two small guards (Brooks, Lowry) in the backcourt, with Ariza, Battier, and Landry up front.  Most striking was that the team continued to look to Landry in the post late in the game on consecutive sequences.  A mere few weeks ago, this would not have been the case.

Carl’s emergence as an actual post-up threat has been the most significant theme of the year, in terms of player-development.  Last year, Landry was used exclusively off the ball, if even in the game in the 4th.  Earlier this season, if he ever received it, he was facing up.  Over the past few games, we have now seen the team committed to establishing Landry with his back to the basket and he has delivered.

The team is establishing its 4th quarter identity.  They Rockets want to attack with Lowry along the baseline and sides, Brooks up the middle, and Landry in the post.  These are the team’s three best offensive players.

Another striking element of last night’s win was the fact that I didn’t record any plays concerning Ariza toward which I held great objection.  Obviously, he still looked very awkward in spots, but that is to be expected.  However, it really seemed as if the leash had been shortened as I don’t recall seeing Trevor allowed to create.  Let us hope that this is not simply due to the injury suffered against Cleveland, but rather another significant turning point of the season.  I would add that the greatest benefit to the Brooks-Lowry backcourt is that it takes the ball out of Ariza’s hands by default.

Another important aspect of last night’s game was the fact that Dirk Nowitzki was completely contained down the stretch without Chuck Hayes. Unfortunately however, I will refrain from attaching any analytical implications to this feat as I suspect that Dirk is still being bothered by the thick padding covering his elbow.

Aaron Brooks was invaluable in providing 30 points, but it came by way of 6 triples.  He got very hot as he often does, and the team always plays well when he is effective from long range.  However, it is very concerning that so much of the team’s success on any given night is dependent upon Aaron’s accuracy with the ‘3’.  Brooks is now shooting 46% from ‘3’ in wins, and 30% in losses.  This calls for a closer look at team-wide correlation, but at first glance, there would appear to be a troubling direct relationship between Aaron’s 3 point shooting and the team’s success.

Final note for today comes on the trade front.  From the Philadelphia Inquirer:

So what’s it going to take to get the Houston Rockets’ Tracy McGrady and his $23 million expiring contract?

It’s going to take a deal involving, as its main piece, 76ers swingman Andre Iguodala.

According to a source close to the situation, the Houston Rockets have said they would only consider shipping McGrady to Philly if the Sixers “knocked the Rockets over” with the amount of talent they included in the deal.

This source said the Rockets have made it clear they will not — in any way — consider trading McGrady to the Sixers for power forward Elton Brand ($14-15 million this year, 3 years left after this one) and center Samuel Dalembert ($12 million, one year left after this one). According to this source, the Sixers are trying very hard to unload Dalembert (not a surprise) and Brand (not a huge surprise, either).

The problem is not many NBA teams are willing to take on money right now. This source named only three NBA teams possibly willing (Houston, Dallas, and Cleveland).

According to this source, the Rockets have expressed interest in a deal involving Iguodala, but he must be paired with better, younger talent than Dalembert. (Read: a deal involving possibly Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, etc.).

Again, the Rockets are willing to take on money, but it’d have to be a special package and a 3rd team might even need to be involved. This source said this would be the kind of deal where both teams needed approval from ownership because of the amount of money and players involved.

The source also said that the Rockets and Sixers have not talked in “more than a week”, making a deal unlikely, but said any deal involving Iguodala “has a chance.”

So there’s the latest on the NBA’s most talked about trading chip: Tracy McGrady.

The problem with the Sixers making a deal involving Iguodala and young talent is that they’d be getting rid of some good young guys and remain with Brand and Dalembert, which is sort of the opposite of the point of making such a trade.

–Kate

Trading Iguodala without including Dalembert/Brand is the logical equivalent of paying someone $1000 to clean the dog feces off your front porch and then letting them take the money without doing the task.  But stranger things have happened (see: Gasol, Pau).  He’s not the creator we seek, but I can’t think of a better haul (other than the Chris Paul dream scenario Bill Simmons has been pushing) for this team than Andre Iguodala.  A young, big, physical guard who plays relentless ‘D’ like Iggy would fit so well onto this team that it’s almost scary.  My guess though is that this report is merely a leak of the Rockets’ stated dream scenario (for bargaining leverage) and that we won’t see any real reports of anything palatable to both sides until closer to the deadline.  Common sense would dictate that any deal involving Iguodala would most definitively involve one of Dalembert/Brand in some capacity (whether to Houston or a 3rd team).

Still, it is extremely encouraging that there are whispers of a potential haul this size (as opposed to the New York – based “Jared Jeffries Blockbuster” scenario making the rounds in the northeast.)

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