NBA Top Picks & Props: Bet Big on Jalen Johnson, RJ Barrett Tonight!

The NBA is back in action this Friday after a Thanksgiving break, presenting a full slate of NBA Cup Group Play games.

I’ve set my sights on three particular bets in the prop market for these games, especially with the presence of double-digit point spreads and important players potentially missing the action.

Here’s a detailed look at the plays for Nov. 29!

Record of NBA Top Picks to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 62-59-1 (+1.49 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1072-1004-23 (+39.59 units)

Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Today’s NBA Best Bets

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

• RJ Barrett OVER 20.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Josh Hart OVER 11.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Jalen Johnson OVR 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

RJ Barrett OVER 20.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

RJ Barrett has been performing well this season, averaging 22.8 points per game with a shooting accuracy of 43.2% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc.

Despite not being at his most efficient, Barrett has had to shoulder more of the offensive load due to injuries to key players like Immanuel Quickley, Bruce Brown, and Scottie Barnes for much of the season.

With Barnes returning but Quickley, Brown, and sophomore sharpshooter Gradey Dick still sidelined against Miami Heat, Barrett is likely to get even more opportunities to score.

Given his high usage rate and the volume of shots he’s been taking, I’m confident in backing Barrett to surpass 20.5 points in tonight’s game against Miami’s robust defense.

He has achieved this in nine of his 16 games this season.

Josh Hart OVER 11.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Knicks player Josh Hart continues to score reliably, averaging 14.0 points per game even as the fifth scoring option in the starting lineup.

Hart has consistently scored 12 or more points in his last seven appearances, and tonight he faces a Charlotte Hornets team missing several key players, including LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges.

Given his extensive playtime of over 37 minutes per game and an average of 9.0 shot attempts, I believe Hart will continue his scoring streak tonight.

Jalen Johnson OVR 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson has been exceptional this season, justifying the team’s decision to extend his contract.

The former first-round draft pick is posting averages of 20.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game, with a shooting percentage of 48.8% from the field and 34.5% from three-point range.

Following a strong performance in his last game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, where he recorded 22 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists, I believe Johnson can surpass 33.5 points, rebounds, and assists again this Friday.

Here’s a summary of Johnson’s performance in his last 10 games:

• @ CLE: 22 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists – 38 PRA
• vs. DAL: 28 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists – 42 PRA
• vs. CHI: 25 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists – 43 PRA
• vs. GSW: 15 points, 14 rebounds, 4 assists – 33 PRA
• @ POR: 25 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists – 33 PRA
• vs. WAS: 18 points, 13 rebounds, 7 assists – 38 PRA
• @ BOS: 18 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists – 40 PRA
• vs. CHI: 20 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists – 31 PRA
• @ DET: 20 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist – 30 PRA
• vs. NYK: 23 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists – 45 PRA

Johnson has exceeded 33.5 PRA in six of these games, consistently scoring 30 or more PRA – a solid track record that makes him a reliable bet for tonight’s game.

This season, he has surpassed 33.5 PRA in 10 of his 18 games, averaging over 35 PRA per game. I’m betting on his continued success tonight.

Odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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