The New England Patriots come in as 7.5-point favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12 action on Sunday, Nov 23 at 1 PM ET. The Patriots bring an impressive 9-2 record and an 8-game winning streak to Paycor Stadium. Meanwhile, the Bengals sit at 3-7 and are reeling without star receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
Cagliari faces Lecce tonight in Serie A showdown, Rossoblu seek top-half push
Girona faces Barcelona tonight in La Liga showdown, Barcelona chases lead
🔥 Quick Facts:
- Patriots favored by 7.5 points with 9-2 record on 8-game win streak
- Bengals are 3-7 without Ja’Marr Chase (suspended) and Joe Burrow (toe injury)
- Game airs on CBS and Paramount+ at 1 PM ET from Paycor Stadium
- Over/under set at 50.5 points per BetMGM
- Patriots cover spread in 52% of computer simulations with predicted score Patriots 30, Bengals 21
What’s Happening on Sunday
The Patriots head to Cincinnati riding one of the hottest streaks in football. New England has won 8 straight games under new head coach Mike Vrabel and currently own the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Quarterback Drake Maye is playing MVP-caliber football in his second year as the full-time starter.
East Texas A&M faces Southeastern in Family Fun Day matchup today
Macclesfield faces Brentford tonight in FA Cup fourth-round showdown
The Bengals, however, face serious obstacles heading into this matchup. Star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is suspended for this game, and quarterback Joe Burrow is out due to a toe injury. Without their two biggest offensive weapons, Cincinnati will lean heavily on backup quarterback action and the running game to manufacture points.
These teams actually met in Week 1 last season, and the Patriots pulled off a shocking 16-10 victory. That win came thanks to two critical Cincinnati turnovers that shifted momentum. A lot has changed since then—both teams look completely different.
Why This Game Matters
For the Patriots, this is a chance to extend their winning streak and solidify their position atop the AFC East. They’re already tied with the Denver Broncos at 9-2, so winning out becomes crucial as we head toward the playoffs. A victory here keeps New England in the hunt for the top seed.
The Bengals need this win desperately. Cincinnati sits at 3-7 and is trying to make a late playoff push, but losing both Chase and Burrow makes that mission nearly impossible. Still, the Bengals have shown some fight at home, so they won’t go down without a battle.
The betting market has priced in the Patriots‘ dominance. New England is a 7.5-point favorite with the over/under sitting at 50.5 points. The Patriots also enter as -375 favorites on the moneyline, meaning you’d need to bet $375 to win $100.
Key Statistical Matchups
The computer models have run 10,000 simulations of this game, and the results heavily favor the visitors.
| Statistic | Patriots | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Cover Spread Probability | 52% | 48% |
| Win Probability | 68% | 32% |
| Moneyline Odds | -375 | +310 |
| Predicted Final Score | 30 | 21 |
| Current Record | 9-2 | 3-7 |
The Patriots cover the 7.5-point spread in 52% of the simulations, while the Over on 50.5 points hits in 49% of scenarios. Interestingly, computer models believe the Bengals are worth backing on the moneyline as underdogs—they win outright in 32% of simulations, offering value at current odds.
What to Watch For Sunday
Several key factors could shift this matchup:
- Drake Maye’s efficiency: The Patriots QB must protect the ball and attack the Bengals’ depleted secondary
- Cincinnati’s ground attack: Without Chase, the Bengals need big production from TreVeyon Henderson and backup QB options
- Injury management: Both teams reported multiple players on final injury designations heading into Sunday
- Field position: Turnovers will be critical—New England converts mistakes into points efficiently
- Defensive pressure: The Bengals’ pass rush must force Maye into bad decisions to stay competitive
How to Watch Patriots vs. Bengals on Sunday?
The game gets underway at 1 PM ET on Sunday, Nov. 23 from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. Fans can watch on CBS or stream via Paramount+. Regional affiliates like WBZ-TV Channel 4 will carry the broadcast in Boston. You can also stream on NFL Sunday Ticket via YouTube if you have a subscription.
The Patriots have too much momentum and too many advantages here. Drake Maye is playing at an elite level, New England‘s defense is solid, and Cincinnati without Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase looks like a team in free fall. Will the Bengals surprise us with a desperate home stand, or will the Patriots roll to victory No. 9?
Sources
- CBS Sports – Computer model simulations and betting odds analysis
- USA Today Sports – Game information and injury reports
- Fox Sports – Prediction data and statistical analysis
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.