Capitals vs Senators clash today with Washington looking to snap losing streak, but Ottawa has one surprising edge experts are missing

The Washington Capitals travel north to Ottawa today looking to carry their momentum into the new year, squaring off against the Senators who are desperately trying to snap a three-game losing streak. Both teams begin what promises to be a high-scoring affair at the Canadian Tire Centre at 1:00 PM EST on the first day of 2026.

Capitals Bring Winning Momentum Into New Year

The Capitals ended December on a positive note, winning two of their last three games before crushing New York 6-3 on Wednesday. The timing couldn’t be better for Washington, who struggled through much of December but found their rhythm just in time.

Tom Wilson was absolutely electric in that victory, scoring twice (including his historic 200th career goal) while adding an assist. Justin Sourdif also potted two goals, and goaltender Charlie Lindgren made 22 saves in the dominant performance. Wilson even recorded a Gordie Howe hat trick (goal, assist, and fight), showcasing the complete game that makes him invaluable to the lineup.

The Capitals also received excellent news this week when both Wilson and goalie Logan Thompson were named to Team Canada’s roster for the 2026 Winter Olympics. That kind of recognition and momentum often translates to heightened focus and intensity on the ice.

Senators Searching for Confidence After Brutal Home Loss

The Senators are heading in the opposite direction, dropping three straight games (0-2-1 record) to close out 2025. Their most recent setback came at home against Columbus, a 4-1 defeat that frustrated head coach Travis Green to the point where he called it “probably one of our worst games of the year.”

What made the loss particularly frustrating was the effort level in the final two periods. Ottawa outshot the Blue Jackets 21-10 after falling behind early, but goaltender Leevi Merilainen couldn’t recover from the early damage. The team’s defense left him exposed, and Columbus pulled away with two third-period goals to seal the victory.

The bright spot for the Senators was the return of Shane Pinto, who came back from a 10-game absence due to a lower-body injury. Center Tim Stutzle has been carrying the load offensively, extending his point streak to 10 games with eight goals and nine assists, but the team desperately needs complementary scoring and defensive stability.

Matchup Analysis: Offensive Firepower vs. Defensive Desperation

Category	Washington Capitals	Ottawa Senators
Overall Record	21-14-5	18-15-5
Scoring Rank	5th in NHL	14th in NHL
Recent Form	Winning momentum	Three-game skid
Key Goaltender	Logan Thompson (2-4-1 in last 7)	Leevi Merilainen (0-6-1 in last 7)

This matchup features a significant talent discrepancy in offensive depth. Washington’s superior scoring output, combined with their recent chemistry following the Rangers game, puts them in the driver’s seat. Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin, and the Capitals’ dynamic forward group should generate plenty of scoring chances against an Ottawa defense that has been vulnerable.

The key factor for Ottawa is whether Tim Stutzle‘s individual brilliance can elevate the entire team’s performance. His 10-game point streak shows he’s capable of carrying the offensive load temporarily, but without better team defense and goaltending contributions, the Senators will struggle to keep pace with Washington’s firepower.

Head-to-Head History and Thompson’s Advantage

These teams have already met once this season, with Ottawa shocking Washington with a dominant 7-1 victory back on October 25 in Alex Ovechkin’s 1,500th career game. Dylan Cozens and Drake Batherson each scored twice in that dominating performance, a result the Capitals are surely motivated to avenge.

However, Logan Thompson has a significant edge in the matchup history. He holds a perfect 5-0-1 record against Ottawa with a 2.30 goals-against average and .931 save percentage. That’s exactly the kind of performance the Capitals need today. On the other side, Merilainen actually has experience against Washington, taking an overtime loss in his only career appearance against the Capitals on January 16, 2025, stopping 25 of 26 shots in a tight contest.

Ullmark’s absence due to a leave of absence means Merilainen could once again be called upon despite losing six of his last seven games. Thompson, meanwhile, has been inconsistent over his last seven games (2-4-1), but his track record against this opponent suggests he could be sharp today.

What Will Determine Today’s Winner in Ottawa?

Will the Capitals’ offensive depth overwhelm an Ottawa team desperate to end their losing streak, or can the Senators find the defensive structure and goaltending they’ve been missing? Washington enters with all the momentum, fresh off a convincing victory and carrying confidence from their Olympic roster selections. But the Senators are at home, which has historically been a strong venue for them, and they simply must show improvement from their “worst game of the year” against Columbus.

The prediction markets favor Ottawa at +145 odds with a 59% implied probability, suggesting this game will be closer than the talent gap suggests. However, expect a high-scoring affair with both teams’ offenses creating plenty of chances throughout the afternoon.

Sources

• Reuters – Game preview and team statistics
• NHL.com – Official game information and projected lineups
• Fox Sports – Team records and offensive rankings