Texas State enters Saturday’s matchup favored by 20.5 points over LA-Monroe in a pivotal Sun Belt Conference battle. The Bobcats (4-6) need wins to secure bowl eligibility for the third straight season. Quarterback Brad Jackson leads the offense after a dominant 41-14 win over Southern Miss. The game kicks off at 5:00 PM on November 22, 2025 at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos.
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🔥 Quick Facts:
- Texas State is 20.5-point favorite, with moneyline at -1205
- Brad Jackson has 2,568 yards, 14 TDs, and 6 INTs this season
- Texas State ranks 21st in scoring with 35.3 PPG, ULM at 15.8 PPG
- Series history dates back to 1986, ULM leads 13-8 all-time
- Game airs exclusively on ESPN+
Head-to-Head Record & Recent Form
Texas State and LA-Monroe have created one of college football’s most interesting rivalries.
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The Warhawks (3-7) have fallen on tough times after a 3-1 start. They’ve lost six straight games and are eliminated from bowl contention. Their defense has been porous, allowing 32.2 PPG while scoring just 15.8 PPG on offense. Quarterback Aidan Armenta has thrown 9 TDs against 8 INTs with only 1,152 yards passing.
Texas State dominated last year’s matchup. Jackson rushed for 119 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries in a 38-17 victory in a rainstorm. Over their last four meetings, Texas State has won three. Since joining the Sun Belt in 2013, both teams have split 12 contests evenly with six wins apiece, featuring seven one-possession thrillers.
| Category | Texas State | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Points Per Game | 35.3 | 15.8 |
| Passing Yards | 2,568 (Jackson) | 1,152 (Armenta) |
| Rushing Leader | Lincoln Pare: 855 yd | McReynolds: 539 yd |
| Points Allowed | 32.7 PPG | 32.2 PPG |
| All-Time Series | 8 wins | 13 wins |
Why This Spread Matters
The 20.5-point spread is significant because it reflects Texas State’s dominance despite both teams struggling. Let me explain what this means for your bets and predictions.
Texas State’s defense has given up 32.7 PPG, placing them 125th nationally. They rank 110th in total yards allowed at 412.0 per game. Still, UL Monroe’s offense ranks 126th in the FBS at just 303.8 YPG. The Warhawks convert only 30.3% of third downs, ranking 132nd in the country.
Oddsmakers favor Texas State heavily because the matchup is lopsided. Jackson ranks 42nd nationally in passing with 258.2 YPG. His team scores on 91.5% of red zone trips, placing them 22nd in the nation. ULM averages nearly 20 points less per game, a fatal gap in college football.
Key Storylines to Watch
- Jackson’s momentum: The freshman QB rushed for 49 yards and 2 TDs last week while completing 82.4% of passes against Southern Miss.
- Defense dominance: Texas State forced 3 turnovers last week while holding opponents to season-low scoring.
- Bowl desperation: The Bobcats need just 2 wins to reach a third straight bowl game.
- Conference standings: James Madison leads Sun Belt at 7-0; Texas State sits 1-5 in conference play.
- Road warrior test: ULM couldn’t bounce back from bowl elimination, losing six straight after that 3-1 start.
Can UL Monroe Pull off the Upset?
Statistically? It seems almost impossible given the gulf in talent and execution. UL Monroe hasn’t beaten Texas State since 2011, before the Bobcats even joined the Sun Belt. The Warhawks lack offensive firepower with Armenta struggling as a passer.
What could help ULM stay competitive? Stop the run. Lincoln Pare has 855 rushing yards this season. If the Warhawks can contain the ground game and force Jackson into errors, they might keep it closer than 20.5 points. But they’re 123rd in FBS with a -9 turnover margin, meaning they lose the ball frequently and don’t force enough takeaways.
The reality is Texas State’s path to a 5-6 record and potential bowl eligibility runs through games like this. Expect the Bobcats to dominate behind Jackson’s dual-threat ability and a defense that found confidence last week. The question isn’t whether Texas State wins, but by how much.
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.