NFL MVP odds show Matthew Stafford pulling away with three weeks left, Drake Maye’s loss to Bills changes everything

NFL MVP odds show Matthew Stafford pulling away from the competition as three weeks remain in the regular season. The Rams quarterback holds a commanding lead at -300 odds, giving him a 75% implied probability of winning the award. Behind him, the race tightens between Drake Maye and Josh Allen.

Stafford’s Dominant Season Puts MVP in Sight

Matthew Stafford has delivered one of the best seasons of his career with the Los Angeles Rams. Through 14 games, the veteran quarterback has thrown for 3,722 passing yards and leads the entire league with 37 touchdown passes. His 5 interceptions rank among the best in terms of ball security.

The Rams have established themselves as the NFC West favorites with their 11-3 record. Stafford surpassed 60,000 career passing yards this season, becoming the second-fastest quarterback to reach that milestone behind only Matt Ryan. With just three weeks left, his odds have only strengthened.

The consensus among sportsbooks shows a clear gap between Stafford and the second-place candidate. His dominance in the second half of the season, combined with elite efficiency and volume, makes him the overwhelming favorite entering the final stretch.

Maye’s Bid Takes Hit After Divisional Defeat

Drake Maye entered Week 15 as a close second in the MVP race, but the Patriots’ 35-31 loss to Buffalo shifted momentum in the betting markets. The New England quarterback recorded 3,567 passing yards and 23 touchdowns this season, which remains an impressive sophomore campaign over a full season.

The Patriots held a 21-0 lead at one point against Josh Allen, but failed to close out the game as Allen orchestrated a remarkable comeback. This loss dropped Maye’s odds from what appeared to be a two-candidate race to a clear third position. Sportsbooks moved his line from around +200 to +425 following the defeat.

Candidate	Odds	Record
Matthew Stafford (Rams)	-300	11-3
Drake Maye (Patriots)	+425	10-4
Josh Allen (Bills)	+550	9-5
Bo Nix / Jordan Love	+7500	Long shot

Allen Makes Dramatic Late-Season Push in MVP Race

Josh Allen’s remarkable 21-point comeback against Drake Maye and the Patriots catapulted the Bills quarterback back into genuine MVP contention. Allen orchestrated an incredible offensive display, leading the Bills on five consecutive touchdown drives to overcome a 21-0 deficit. The victory pushed Buffalo to 9-5 and kept their AFC East title hopes alive.

The Bills signal-caller has earned his 86th career win, tying him with Tom Brady and Russell Wilson for the second-most wins by a quarterback in his first eight seasons. His odds have climbed from around +1400 early to +550 currently, representing a dramatic surge in betting favor over the past week.

Allen’s ability to orchestrate comebacks and elevate his performance in crucial moments reminds voters why he won the MVP award in prior seasons. However, even his heroic efforts against New England leave him well behind the frontrunner.

The Path Forward for Each MVP Contender

Matthew Stafford and the Rams control their own destiny with the NFC’s best record and the most compelling individual statistics. His 37 touchdown passes provide a clear benchmark that captures voter attention. Stafford would need to collapse spectacularly in the final three games to lose his favorite status.

Drake Maye’s path requires either a dominant close to the regular season or a major collapse from Stafford. The Patriots’ loss damaged his momentum likely beyond repair at this stage. Josh Allen’s scenario involves winning out and capitalizing on any weakness from the other two, though his 9-5 record provides less favorable context than his competitors.

The final three weeks will determine whether Stafford’s commanding lead holds or if momentum can shift in this late-season sprint.

What Does This Mean for the 2025 NFL Season’s Most Prestigious Award?

NFL MVP voting occurs after the season concludes, but oddsmakers have consistently identified the three likeliest winners. Stafford’s dominance in both volume and efficiency separates him from the field heading into the final stretch. The Rams quarterback leads in touchdowns, maintains elite consistency, and plays for a winning team—the traditional formula for MVP consideration.

While Maye’s rookie-to-sophomore development and Allen’s comeback heroics provide compelling narratives, neither provides the statistical edge that Stafford commands. The historical precedent suggests that -300 odds with three games remaining essentially locks in the frontrunner unless dramatic circumstances shift the narrative.

Sources

• DraftKings Sportsbook – Current NFL MVP odds and betting lines as of December 18, 2025
• ESPN – Season statistics and game recaps for Stafford, Maye, and Allen
• NFL.com – Official team records, player statistics, and game results