The Cowboys vs Commanders prediction has Dallas favored by 7 points as both teams face off on Christmas Day. Despite playoff elimination, the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders will battle for NFC East pride and bragging rights in a Week 17 showdown at Northwest Stadium on December 25, 2025.
🔥 Quick Facts
- Kickoff Time: 1:00 PM ET on Netflix from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland
- Cowboys Record: 6-8-1 and officially eliminated from playoff contention after the Eagles’ win over Washington
- Commanders Record: 4-11 and playing on Christmas Day for the first time in franchise history
- Spread & Odds: Dallas favored by 7.0 points with an over/under set at 50.5 total points
Cowboys vs Commanders: Matching Up the Key Storylines
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The Dallas Cowboys come to this matchup riding a three-game losing streak after dropping their last encounter to the Los Angeles Chargers 34-17. Despite being eliminated from playoff contention, quarterback Dak Prescott has remained adamant about playing the remaining games. Prescott threw three touchdown passes in the earlier 44-22 victory over Washington in Week 7, showcasing the Cowboys’ potent offensive capability.
The Washington Commanders find themselves in a difficult position with their 4-11 record, but head coach Mike Daniels has kept his team engaged despite the challenging season. The Commanders’ defense has struggled significantly, ranking in the bottom five defensively across the league, a factor that could benefit the prolific Cowboys offense led by CeeDee Lamb and Prescott.
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Dak Prescott has been playing at a high level despite the team’s disappointing season, with CeeDee Lamb emerging as one of his favorite targets. In their first meeting in October, Prescott connected with Lamb on a stunning 74-yard touchdown that showcased the chemistry between the two. The Cowboys’ offense will look to establish early dominance against a Washington secondary struggling defensively.
With no playoff stakes for Dallas, Prescott has emphasized his commitment to finishing strong. The Cowboys starters have received no limitations for the Christmas game, indicating they’ll go all-out despite their playoff elimination. This competitive mentality sets the tone for what promises to be a high-scoring affair between two teams with potent offenses and vulnerable defenses.
Defensive Weakness: Both Teams Ranked Among NFL’s Worst
| Category | Cowboys | Commanders |
| Overall Record | 6-8-1 | 4-11 |
| Key QB | Dak Prescott | Jayden Daniels |
| Top Receiver | CeeDee Lamb | George Pickens |
| Playoff Status | Eliminated | Eliminated |
Both the Cowboys and Commanders rank in the bottom-five defensively when measured by defensive EPA this season, setting up what fantasy analysts project could be another high-scoring matchup. The first meeting between these teams resulted in a 44-22 Cowboys victory, a scoreline that suggests both offenses can light up the scoreboard when given even modest time to operate.
The defensive coordinators who started the season with both teams have since been replaced, indicating structural changes in how each squad approaches defending the football. This instability on defense could play directly into the hands of the leagues’ more prolific passing attacks, and both the Cowboys and Commanders possess quality receivers ready to exploit these weaknesses.
Weather, Rest, and Netflix’s First Christmas NFL Game
The matchup will stream exclusively on Netflix, marking a significant moment for the platform as it broadcasts its first NFL Christmas Day game. Playing in Landover, Maryland on December 25 brings weather considerations that could impact passing games, though both teams have shown they’ll attempt to move the ball through the air regardless.
For the Washington Commanders, this represents a historic occasion—their first-ever Christmas Day game in franchise history. Despite playoff elimination, both teams have indicated their starters will play significant snaps, rejecting any notion of resting players in meaningless games. This commitment to competition suggests fans will see the best versions of both offenses battling it out on the holiday.
Which Team Emerges Victorious in This NFC East Christmas Showdown?
The seven-point spread favoring Dallas reflects the Cowboys’ offensive superiority and their superior record, though the Commanders’ home-field advantage at Northwest Stadium could provide some advantage. Dallas’ breadth of receiving options, led by CeeDee Lamb, gives them an edge in what projects to be a pass-happy Christmas afternoon.
Washington’s resilience despite a 4-11 record should not be underestimated, but the Cowboys’ three-game losing streak should be viewed as motivation rather than concern. With both teams eliminated from playoff contention, pride and professional integrity take center stage, but the talent advantage appears to rest with the Dallas side. Expect an offensive showcase on Christmas Day 2025 as both teams look to finish their disappointing seasons on a positive note.
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.