NFL MVP odds: Stafford’s the favorite, but Drake Maye’s heating up

Matthew Stafford sits on top as the NFL MVP favorite. But Drake Maye is charging fast. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback holds +150 odds at most sportsbooks. The New England Patriots rookie trails closely at +190. This race looks tight through the final 6 weeks.

What Happened in the Race

Stafford took over the favorite spot after a strong performance against the Seattle Seahawks in early November. The veteran threw for 27 touchdowns while tossing just 2 interceptions—an elite ratio. At 37 years old, he’s playing mistake-free football.

Maye emerged as a serious threat starting in October. The rookie has been remarkably accurate. His 71.9% completion percentage leads the entire NFL. He’s thrown 21 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. The Patriots have him in first place in the AFC East.

Both quarterbacks show distinct strengths. Stafford leads in pure efficiency and TD production. Maye excels in accuracy and decision-making. The gap between them remains razor-thin in Vegas odds.

Why This MVP Race Matters

You’re watching one of the most competitive award races in years. Stafford winning would make him the oldest MVP winner since Brett Favre. That’s a historic moment for the veteran.

Maye‘s season has energized New England. A rookie MVP winner would be shocking. It hasn’t happened in decades. His accuracy translates to wins—the Patriots are among the league’s best teams.

The race extends beyond just these two. Josh Allen (+475) won MVP last year. Jonathan Taylor (+700) leads all rushers with explosive performances. The 2025 MVP race rewards different excellence.

Head-to-Head Comparison

Stat	Stafford	Maye
MVP Odds	+150	+190
Passing Yards	2,557	3,130
Touchdowns	27 (1st)	21
Interceptions	2	6
Completion %	TBA	71.9% (1st)
Age	37	23 (Rookie)

The stats reveal different narratives. Stafford‘s 27 TDs to 2 INTs ratio stands out. Maye actually has more passing yards through their respective games. His accuracy story stays compelling.

Maye also adds value with his legs. The rookie rushed for 307 yards and added 5 rushing TDs. Stafford doesn’t contribute rushing yards. Modern MVP voters value dual-threat capabilities.

What’s Next in the MVP Race

• The race continues through Week 18 ending December 29, 2025.
• Stafford faces pressure to maintain elite efficiency.
• Maye needs consistency to bridge the odds gap.
• Allen, Taylor, and others can still make moves.
• Voters typically reward team success too—check playoff positioning.

Injuries could shake everything up. A key starter going down changes narrative. Weather impacts late-season performances. Fantasy managers will track trends closely. Smart bettors watch for odds movements daily.

Who Will Actually Win the MVP?

The smart money sits on Stafford right now. His combination of excellence and consistency checks all boxes. The veteran proved he can deliver when it matters most. But history keeps changing.

Don’t count out Maye though. Rookies rarely win. But when they display this level of accuracy? Voters take notice. The Patriots leading the AFC East helps his case. Team success drives MVP voting.

This race remains genuinely open heading into the final sprint. One bad game could shift odds dramatically. One explosive performance flips the conversation. That’s what makes this 2025 MVP race so captivating. Will the veteran or the rookie claim the hardware?

Sources

• ESPN – Official 2025 NFL MVP odds and statistics
• FOX Sports – Weekly MVP race updates and analysis
• USA Today – Comprehensive MVP prediction coverage