Wales face the All Blacks on Saturday, November 22nd, 2025 at Principality Stadium in a match that could finally end a 72-year drought. The hosts haven’t beaten New Zealand since December 19, 1953. The All Blacks arrive as heavy favorites but wounded after a 33-19 defeat to England last week. This is a chance for Welsh rugby to make history.
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🔥 Quick Facts:
- Wales haven’t beaten New Zealand in 37 encounters across all formats.
- All Blacks have won 34 of those 37 Tests, with 3 Welsh victories.
- Scott Robertson’s All Blacks lost to England, 33-19 at Twickenham last week.
- Wales just beat Japan, 24-23 to end a 10-Test home losing streak.
- Kick-off is 3:10 PM GMT. The stakes couldn’t be higher for Welsh pride.
A Wounded All Blacks Side Seeking Redemption
New Zealand has made massive changes ahead of Cardiff. Only Scott Barrett (captain), Simon Parker, and Will Jordan retain spots from the loss to England. Coach Scott Robertson insisted his side had some positives. But the scoreboard tells the real story—three losses in 2025 have put immense pressure on the head coach.
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What makes this different? Wales will play without pressure while New Zealand plays under intense scrutiny. Robertson knows this fully. He said his team must be “right on it” against a Welsh side with “nothing to lose.” The All Blacks need to win with style and substance, not just victory.
The heavily rotated All Blacks lineup shows Robertson is willing to blood new talent. Yet big names will watch from the sidelines. Beauden Barrett (starting fly-half) and others are sidelined. This squad has youth mixed with experience, but it’s facing perhaps its biggest test of the tour.
Wales Believing in an Upset After Japan Win
Wales emerged with 24-23 victory over Japan last Saturday courtesy of a late kick. That win—just their first under Steve Tandy—ended a 10-game losing streak in Cardiff. The momentum matters hugely for a side ranked 12th in the world rankings. Home advantage inside Principality Stadium is undeniable.
Coach Tandy has made five changes from that Japan match. Flanker Harri Deaves gets his debut, fresh from working as a roofer in his early professional days. His inspiring journey shows what’s possible at Wales. Centre Joe Hawkins returns after missing action since the 2023 Six Nations. Full-back Blair Murray earned Robertson’s respect—the All Blacks coach coached Murray at Crusaders and knows his abilities.
But let’s be honest—Wales have conceded 50-plus points to England and Argentina at home this year. That’s stark. Yet Dafydd Jenkins believes his squad can pull off an upset. The lock said recently there’s genuine belief inside the squad. When Wales play the All Blacks with “nothing to lose,” they historically find something special.
Head-to-Head Record Favors New Zealand Heavily
All Blacks: 34 wins | Wales: 3 wins | Draws: 1
| Statistic | Wales | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| Test Match Wins | 3 | 34 |
| Last Welsh Victory | December 19, 1953 (13-8 at Cardiff, led by Bleddyn Williams) | |
| Winning Percentage (Wales) | 8.1% | 91.9% |
| Last 5 Meetings | 0 wins | 5 wins |
The statistics paint a grim picture for Wales. Over 37 encounters, the All Blacks have dominated completely. The bigger winning margins have been brutal—52 points is New Zealand’s largest victory margin over Wales. Yet that 1953 win shows it’s been done. Bleddyn Williams led that historic 13-8 triumph at Principality. If history repeats, this would be the moment.
Key Matchups and Prediction Angles
Betting markets price All Blacks at 70-75% win probability, leaving considerable underdog value for Wales. Experts have split opinions. Some analysts predict Wales 10-52 New Zealand. Others see upside for the hosts given the pressure Robertson’s team faces.
- Full-back battle: Blair Murray vs Ruben Love (covering for fly-half duties)
- All Blacks offensive power: Can they operate complex attack patterns with new combinations?
- Welsh defense: Must shut down New Zealand’s expansive play and intercept opportunities
- Set piece battle: Both packs will compete fiercely at lineout and scrum
- Air dominance: Murray’s aerial skills tested against All Blacks back three
Can Wales Finally End 72 Years of Pain?
The story writes itself perfectly. Wales just got a morale boost from Japan. New Zealand arrives wounded and under pressure. The odds are long. But rugby thrives on these moments—when underdogs have absolutely nothing to lose.
Robertson acknowledged it plainly. Put Wales at home, under the roof, singing the anthem, and they’ll “dig deep” and “find their best.” When you’re ranked 12th globally playing the second-ranked team, the pressure works in your favor. Can Harri Deaves, Joe Hawkins, and the Welsh pack deliver something momentous on November 22nd?
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.