NFL draft order: Giants locked in No. 1 pick, but what Raiders and Titans will do in final week changes everything

The NFL draft order is taking shape heading into the final week of the 2025 season. With the New York Giants occupying the prized No. 1 overall pick, the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans are locked in a tight battle for position. Who claims the top slot could be determined by strength of schedule in this wide-open race.

How Strength of Schedule Determines the Giant’s Grip on No. 1

The New York Giants maintain their edge for the top pick primarily through strength of schedule calculations. Teams with identical records use remaining opponent winning percentages as a tiebreaker. The Giants face a favorable closing stretch that keeps them ahead of the Raiders and Titans, who have the same 2-12 mark.

Every remaining game matters for draft position purposes. A loss helps teams stay near the bottom, while an unexpected win could shift the order significantly. The Giants’ Week 17 matchup against the Raiders represents a crossroads moment for both squads chasing the top selection.

Mock drafts and analyst projections heavily favor the Giants maintaining the No. 1 overall selection. CBS Sports polling shows the Giants have strong probabilities of keeping pole position through Sunday’s finale.

Three-Team Race for Destiny in Final Week

This year’s NFL draft order features an unprecedented three-team tie at the bottom of the standings. The Giants, Raiders, and Titans all finished with identical 2-12 records after Week 16 action. The Cleveland Browns sit just one game ahead at 3-11, presenting opportunities for movement.

Tennessee’s strength of schedule was slightly tougher than Las Vegas, placing them third in the race. However, a strong finish by any of these franchises could alter the final order arrangement. The New York Jets, also at 3-11, round out the top five.

Analysts project continuing volatility through Sunday. ESPN’s projections show the Giants with a strong grip on the top selection, but the battle for picks 2-5 remains fluid heading into Week 17 matchups.

Rank	Team	Record
1	New York Giants	2-12
2	Las Vegas Raiders	2-12
3	Tennessee Titans	2-12
4	Cleveland Browns	3-11
5	New York Jets	3-11

Rueben Bain Jr. Emerges as Consensus No. 1 Prospect

Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. has established himself as the likely top overall selection candidate despite being at over 275 pounds. The high-motor prospect brings advanced technique and natural strength that scouts consistently rank as elite. ESPN’s Mel Kiper lists Bain as the second-ranked prospect on his Big Board behind Auburn’s Keldric Faulk.

Bain could anchor an elite pass rush for whichever team secures the No. 1 pick. His ability to hold up against the run at his size presents advantages over traditional edge rusher archetypes. Scouts describe him as a high-effort player with exceptional motor and competitive fire.

The Giants have their quarterback situation settled with Daniel Jones Dart, meaning they may not pursue a signal-caller if they keep the top selection. An elite edge rusher like Bain could represent the perfect fit for New York’s defensive rebuild.

Ravens and Falcons Watch External Factors Impact Final Order

Beyond the five teams at the absolute bottom, the Baltimore Ravens at 7-7 and Atlanta Falcons at 4-10 occupy the Next tier positions. These teams face scenarios where strong finishes could help them climb or drop in the first-round order. Every playoff implication cascades downward through the draft sequence.

The Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, and New Orleans Saints all sit in positions where strength of schedule and final results will determine their draft positioning. Trades could further shake up the final first-round alignment before April’s selection event.

How does the NFL draft order landscape continue shifting during Week 17 action?

Sources

• ESPN – 2026 NFL Draft Rankings and Projected Order
• NFL.com – 2026 Draft Order and Team Needs
• Yahoo Sports – Updated Draft Order After Week 16