Arizona State vs Duke prediction: Upset threat emerges on New Year’s Eve as ACC champion faces Sun Bowl shocker

Arizona State vs Duke plays out tonight on New Year’s Eve in the 92nd Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, as the ACC champion Blue Devils meet the upset-hungry Sun Devils. Both programs arrive with disappointing seasons, making this matchup a chance for redemption before the calendar flips.

Duke’s Unlikely ACC Crown Masks Inconsistent Season

The Blue Devils finished 8-5 with five losses that raised questions throughout the season. Coach Manny Diaz’s team had opportunity after opportunity to establish itself as a playoff contender but stumbled repeatedly in games they should have won.

Despite the inconsistent record, Duke found its moment when it mattered most. The Blue Devils defeated Virginia in overtime in the ACC Championship game, claiming their first conference title in program history. However, that historic achievement wasn’t enough to crack the 12-team College Football Playoff, a reality that stings for the program.

The loss to the playoff snub makes the Sun Bowl feel like a consolation prize for Duke. Nevertheless, the Blue Devils carry the prestige of being ACC champions into El Paso on Wednesday, December 31 at 2 p.m. ET on CBS.

Arizona State Faces Biggest Test Without Stars Opting Out

The Sun Devils arrive at 8-4 but face a crucial shortage of offensive firepower. Stars Jordyn Tyson, Raleek Brown, and Chamon Metayer are all departing for the NFL Draft and declined to play in this bowl game.

Tyson was Arizona State’s leading receiver and a projected first-round pick. Brown rushed for 1,141 yards and explosive plays throughout the season. Their absence forces the Sun Devils into a different offensive identity. Quarterback Jeff Sims will lead Arizona State’s approach, likely relying more on a methodical run-heavy attack without the deep-threat options.

Despite these losses, Arizona State remains competitive enough to threaten Duke. The Sun Devils have talented pieces remaining and are desperate to prove they belong in high-profile bowl games. A victory gives Arizona State a shot at 20 wins over two seasons, a major program milestone.

Category	Duke	Arizona State
Record	8-5 (ACC Champion)	8-4 (Big 12)
Spread	-3.5 Favorites	+3.5 (56.8% to win)
Key QB	Jeff Sims (dual-threat)	Jeff Sims (dual-threat)
Kickoff	Wednesday, Dec 31 – 2 p.m. ET on CBS

Defense Shapes Contrasting Play Styles in El Paso

Duke’s defense played a crucial role in winning the ACC Championship. The Blue Devils showed up in crunch time against Virginia and now face a critical test against Arizona State’s offensive scheme.

Arizona State is notably without its top three cornerbacks for this game, weakening an already vulnerable pass defense. That defensive shortage creates an opportunity for Duke to establish tempo through the air. Without Tyson’s deep-threat capabilities, the Sun Devils must rely on different tactical approaches.

The matchup will likely feature methodical offensive drives from Arizona State, grinding yards through their ground game since explosive passing lanes are limited. Duke’s three-loss season and missed playoff spot make this game critical for ending the year on a positive note.

“The ACC and Big 12 clash in the 2025 Sun Bowl on Wednesday as the Duke Blue Devils take on the Arizona State Sun Devils.”

— CBS Sports, Game Preview

Why Does This Bowl Game Matter So Much for Both Teams?

Duke’s playoff snub makes redemption urgent. The Blue Devils proved they could win the ACC but couldn’t convince the selection committee they belonged in the final 12. Every win moving forward is a statement that the conference championship carries weight and their program belongs among elite teams.

Arizona State, meanwhile, carries the weight of expectations from a program that won the Big 12 Championship just last year and made the College Football Playoff. Falling to 8-4 feels like a step backward. A dominant bowl victory restores confidence heading into the 2026 season with renewed roster. For Arizona State, this is about proving last year wasn’t a fluke and rebuilding momentum after key contributors depart for professional opportunities.

Both programs hunger for a strong finish. Duke wants to show the playoff committee should have picked them. Arizona State wants to demonstrate they’re still a West program that can compete with established powerhouses despite losing stars mid-season.