Vikings vs Packers favored by 6.5 points, but Minnesota won’s last two matchups against Green Bay

Green Bay enters as the favorite against Minnesota but the Vikings have won their last two matchups against the Packers. The Week 12 showdown happens on Nov. 23, 2025 at Lambeau Field. Green Bay sits at 6-3-1 while Minnesota struggles at 4-6.

Head-to-Head: Vikings Edge Recent Matchups

Here’s where it gets interesting for Minnesota. The Vikings have dominated the recent rivalry. They beat Green Bay 31-29 back in September at Lambeau. Fast forward to December ‘24 and Minnesota won again 27-25.

Over the last 10 years, the Vikings own this matchup 11-7-1 overall. That’s significant momentum entering Sunday. The Packers know they’re vulnerable here. Green Bay‘s recent record doesn’t match their playoff credentials either.

Statistic	Minnesota	Green Bay
Current Record	4-6	6-3-1
Last 5 Games	L-L-W (against Green Bay, then Baltimore)	3-1 in last 5
Last Meeting	W 27-25 vs Green Bay (12/29/24)	L 27-25 to Minnesota (12/29/24)
10-Year H2H	11-7-1 advantage	7-11-1

Current Form Analysis

Minnesota hit a rough patch lately. They lost to Chicago 19-17 on Nov. 16. Before that came a 27-19 loss to Baltimore on Nov. 9. The Vikings are struggling right now but showed life beating Detroit 27-24 back on Nov. 2.

The Packers looked solid through their recent stretch. Green Bay went 3-1 in the last five games. Still, they’re against the spread is concerning—just 3-7 ATS this season. That matters for bettors.

Plus, Minnesota has Justin Jefferson healthy and explosive. Green Bay has Josh Jacobs possibly out with a knee issue. That’s valuable depth missing.

Key Injury Concerns

The Packers injury report screams trouble. CB Nate Hobbs is ruled out with a knee injury. WR Jayden Reed is also out with a foot/shoulder issue. RB Josh Jacobs is questionable with a knee problem.

Many Green Bay receivers are listed as questionable. Matthew Golden, Dontayvion Wicks, and others could miss time. For Minnesota, Jonathan Greenard and Ryan Kelly have been monitored. Still, the Packers have way more uncertainty.

Team	Key Out/Questionable	Impact Level
Green Bay	Hobbs (OUT), Reed (OUT), Jacobs (Q)	High
Minnesota	Greenard (Q), Kelly (Q)	Moderate

Betting Lines & Market Direction

Vegas has this one pretty simple. Green Bay is -6.5 favorites across the board. The moneyline? -286 for the Packers, which equals +231 for Minnesota.

The total sits at 41.5 points. That’s fairly low for modern NFL standards. Both defenses getting the respect here. Bettors like the under against these teams right now.

Smart money sees value with Minnesota at +6.5. The Vikings beat Green Bay twice already. Getting six-and-a-half points with the better recent track record looks appetizing. Question is whether Green Bay‘s talent shows up when it matters.

What’s the Real Edge Here?

So what actually gives the advantage here? Minnesota has beaten Green Bay the last two times they met. The Vikings own the decade matchup record. Justin Jefferson still plays at elite level. The Packers have serious injury concerns entering this game.

But Green Bay plays at home. Lambeau Field is tough. The Packers are solid recently winning 3 of 5. Jordan Love remains one of the league’s best young quarterbacks. The spread of 6.5 might be right since Vegas respects both teams.

Think Minnesota covers the spread? The Vikings have beaten these guys twice. Getting nearly a touchdown? That could be money. Can the injury-depleted Packers slow down Jefferson without full personnel? Sunday tells the story.