NFL draft order 2026 takes shape heading into the final week as the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders battle for the coveted No. 1 overall pick with identical 2-13 records. Both teams carry historic losing seasons into Week 17, with their head-to-head matchup on Sunday potentially deciding who controls the draft’s top selection. Strength of schedule becomes the tiebreaker in this rare “toilet bowl” showdown.
🔥 Quick Facts
- The Giants and Raiders both finished 2-13, tied for the worst record in the NFL entering Week 17
- Strength of schedule is the tiebreaker, with the Giants currently holding the No. 1 pick after facing the weaker schedule
- Both teams have nine-game losing streaks heading into Sunday’s matchup at Allegiant Stadium
- The likeliest third overall pick goes to the Cleveland Browns at 3-12, with the New York Jets close behind at 3-12
Giants vs. Raiders: NFL’s Lowest Point Comes to Vegas
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The New York Giants travel west to face Las Vegas in what may be the strangest high-stakes contest in football. Not a playoff spot hangs in the balance—both teams are mathematically eliminated—but instead, the right to select first in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Giants have had one of their worst seasons in franchise history, managing just two wins under the leadership of head coach Brian Daboll. The Raiders, meanwhile, struggled through their own disastrous campaign under first-year coach Pete Carroll. Both organizations will be betting on high draft picks to rebuild.
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According to CBS Sports, the Giants have a 32.6% chance of landing the No. 1 pick while the Raiders sit at 27.6%, showing how close this race truly is with just one game remaining.
Strength of Schedule Determines the Draft Order Tiebreaker
When two teams finish with identical records, strength of schedule (SOS) becomes the deciding factor in draft order placement. The Giants entered Week 17 with .531 SOS while the Raiders possess .543 SOS, giving New York a slight advantage on the tiebreaker.
However, the outcome of this game could dramatically shift the picture. If the Raiders defeat the Giants, Las Vegas moves ahead and claims the No. 1 selection. If the Giants win, they improve to 3-13 but the Raiders fall to 2-14, a record that matches the worst single-season performance in franchise history dating back to 2006.
| Team | Record | SOS | Current Draft Position |
| Giants | 2-13 | .531 | No. 1 (via SOS) |
| Raiders | 2-13 | .543 | No. 2 (currently) |
| Browns | 3-12 | .492 | No. 3 |
| Jets | 3-12 | TBA | No. 4 (currently) |
Injuries and Missing Stars Add Chaos to the Draft Showdown
Both teams enter this game severely depleted by injuries. The Raiders will be without tight end Brock Bowers, one of their best players, after he was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury this week.
Maxx Crosby, the Raiders‘ standout pass rusher, is also out after being placed on injured reserve with a knee injury requiring offseason surgery. The Giants are not immune to roster problems, with offensive tackle Andrew Thomas (hamstring), cornerback Cor’Dale Flott (knee), and center John Michael Schmitz (hand) all dealing with injuries.
These absences underscore how dysfunctional both franchises have been, yet neither team appears particularly motivated to tank further heading into a contest that could determine draft position for years to come.
What Happens to the No. 1 Prospect with Giants or Raiders?
The 2026 NFL Draft features several top quarterback prospects including Shedeur Sanders of Colorado and other high-impact talent. Whichever team claims the No. 1 overall pick will have the opportunity to reshape their franchise around elite talent moving forward.
New York has indicated interest in addressing its wide receiver position, while Las Vegas may prioritize either quarterback or offensive line help. Both organizations are in complete rebuild mode after disastrous 2025 seasons, making this draft pick potentially franchise-defining.
The winner of Sunday’s game will have more control over their future than the loser, though both teams need massive roster overhauls regardless of draft position. History will remember this matchup as one of the strangest high-stakes contests in modern NFL history.
“Strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker for draft order, and the team with the easier schedule gets the higher draft pick.”
— The New York Times Athletic, NFL Draft Coverage
Why This Week 17 Matchup Matters More Than Any Playoff Game
In most seasons, Week 17 games between playoff-eliminated teams are meaningless. However, this Giants-Raiders contest carries enormous significance for both organizations’ futures. Drafting first overall in 2026 could be the difference between five more losing seasons and building a contender around elite young talent.
The loser of Sunday’s game will occupy the No. 1 spot, while the winner moves to No. 2 and likely watches the draft unfold from a position of weakness. Both teams’ executive staffs understand that this single game has legacy implications far beyond the current season.
Expect both teams to play their backups and injury-plagued rosters in a contest that resembles practice more than professional football, yet the stakes could not be higher for long-term franchise building.
Sources
- ESPN – 2026 NFL Draft Order Projections and Week 17 Coverage
- The New York Times Athletic – Draft Analysis and SOS Tiebreaker Explanation
- CBS Sports – Giants-Raiders Draft Pick Odds and Implications
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.