NFL MVP race heats up as Josh Allen’s odds plummet after worst game of season, Matthew Stafford takes control

The NFL MVP race took a dramatic turn Sunday night as Josh Allen delivered one of his worst performances of the 2025 season. His MVP odds plummeted significantly following Buffalo’s narrow 23-20 victory over Cleveland on December 21, 2025. The defending champion quarterback now faces an uphill climb to repeat as league MVP.

Josh Allen’s Worst Statistical Night of the Season

Allen struggled mightily against Cleveland’s defense on Sunday, completing just 130 passing yards with no touchdowns in the Bills’ 23-20 victory. The performance represented his worst outing since his rookie season in 2018.

To make matters worse, Allen injured his ankle during the game, which further limited his effectiveness as both a passer and runner. He added only 17 rushing yards to his total, far below his season averages. Multiple analysts noted that the quarterback overthrew open receivers and failed to influence the game as he typically does.

Matthew Stafford Extends MVP Favorite Status

Matthew Stafford continues to dominate the MVP conversation, as his odds moved to -400 at DraftKings following Sunday’s action. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback threw for three touchdowns and 457 yards against Seattle’s elite defense just days earlier.

Stafford has maintained his lead heading into the final three weeks of the regular season. Multiple sportsbooks now imply he possesses a 75 percent chance to win the award. Drake Maye of the New England Patriots remains the only other legitimate challenger, sitting at +400 to +425 depending on the sportsbook.

MVP Race Current Standings and Implications

James Cook Steps Up as Allen Struggles

With Allen hampered by poor performance and an ankle injury, running back James Cook carried the offensive load for Buffalo. The star back rushed for 117 yards on 16 carries, averaging 7.3 yards per carry with both of the team’s touchdowns.

Cook’s dominant performance allowed the Bills to escape Cleveland despite Allen’s ineffectiveness. The victory marked Buffalo’s fourth straight win, improving their record to 11-4 heading into the final stretch. Greg Rousseau also shined defensively, recording 2.5 sacks and two tackles for loss to shut down the Cleveland offense.

Can Josh Allen Salvage His MVP Hopes in the Remaining Weeks?

With three weeks remaining in the regular season, Allen faces an enormous challenge to recover his MVP candidacy after Sunday’s historically poor outing. His odds suggest bettors have effectively written him out of the conversation.

The Bills quarterback was surging earlier in December, jumping from +2500 odds to +450 after back-to-back comebacks against elite opponents. However, that momentum evaporated instantly with his worst game of the 2025 season. Allen will need multiple dominant performances down the stretch to even enter the conversation again, something that appears increasingly unlikely given Stafford’s commanding lead in betting markets.

Michael Brown

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