Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US explodes to $121.6 billion, but the real shocker is what’s happening to FDI inflows

Vietnam’s trade surplus with the United States surged to a record $121.6 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, defying Trump’s 20% tariff threat and signaling the Southeast Asian nation’s dominance in U.S. imports. Foreign direct investment simultaneously hit a five-year high of $23.6 billion, demonstrating investor confidence despite growing economic headwinds.

Vietnam’s Record Trade Surplus Challenges Trump Administration

Vietnam’s trade surplus with its primary export market, the United States, jumped to $121.6 billion during the first 11 months of 2025, eclipsing the total surplus the nation achieved throughout all of 2024 ($104.5 billion). This remarkable growth occurred despite the Trump administration’s decision to impose 20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods beginning in August.

The surge demonstrates Vietnam’s resilience in global trade as the nation continues repositioning itself as a critical alternative to China for U.S. manufacturing and imports. Officials credit improved capacity to absorb foreign capital and sustained confidence from multinational enterprises in Vietnam’s economic fundamentals.

Exports Accelerate Despite Monthly Slowdown

While the year-to-date figures show extraordinary momentum, monthly data reveals emerging signs of cooling. November saw shipments to the U.S. fall 7.3% compared to October, marking the fourth consecutive month of month-on-month declines.

Vietnam’s overall November trade surplus narrowed to just $1.09 billion from $2.6 billion in October, highlighting the nation’s heavy dependence on the American market. Exports to all destinations dropped 7.1% month-over-month, suggesting tariff pressures and global demand weakening may finally be taking effect on Vietnamese shipments.

FDI Reaches Peak Performance Despite Economic Headwinds

Category	Amount (USD Billion)
FDI Disbursement (Jan-Nov 2025)	$23.6
Processing & Manufacturing	$19.56 (82.9%)
Real Estate Sector	$5.72 (20.7%)
Total New Projects Licensed	3,695 (up 21.7%)

Foreign direct investment inflows marked a dramatic rebound, hitting $23.6 billion through November, the highest level recorded during the 2021-2025 period. Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang announced the achievement alongside warnings about mounting economic challenges from U.S. tariffs and devastating flooding.

Singapore led foreign investor rankings with $4.29 billion (26.9% of new investment), followed by China with $3.4 billion (21.3%), Hong Kong with $1.66 billion (10.4%), and Japan with $1.56 billion (9.8%). Swedish and Taiwanese firms injected $1 billion and $951 million respectively.

Vietnam’s Trade Deficit with China Deepens Significantly

While Vietnam celebrated record gains in its American trade relationship, its balance sheet darkened elsewhere. The trade deficit with China surged 38.1% year-on-year to $104.3 billion in the January-November period, nearly offsetting all positive balances with the U.S., European Union, and Japan.

Vietnam’s total trade surplus across all partners reached $20.53 billion, with overall exports rising 16.1% to $430.14 billion and imports climbing 18.4% to $409.61 billion. The widening Chinese deficit presents growing pressure on Vietnam’s overall trade position despite stellar U.S. performance.

How will Vietnam maintain growth momentum as monthly exports slow?

The challenge ahead centers on sustaining the extraordinary 11-month performance while monthly trends suggest deceleration. Vietnam continues negotiating a formal trade agreement with Washington following their October framework deal, hoping to secure long-term stability and potentially renegotiate the 20% tariff rate.

“Foreign investment inflows in the January-November period rose 8.9% from a year earlier, while pledges were up 7.4%, reflecting robust investor interest despite increasing economic challenges.”

— Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang, National Statistics Office announcement

Sources

• Reuters – Vietnam’s trade surplus with US hits record as exports surge despite tariffs
• Vietnam Plus – FDI disbursement hits five-year high during first 11 months
• Business Today Malaysia – Vietnam’s Trade Surplus With US Hits Record US$121.6 Billion Despite Tariffs