Patriots vs Broncos clash Sunday for AFC Championship berth

Patriots vs Broncos clash Sunday in the AFC Championship Game where backup Jarrett Stidham will start for Denver. The New England Patriots face the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on January 25 with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Here’s everything you need to know about this critical matchup.

Patriots Heavily Favored Despite Broncos’ Resilience

ESPN’s FPI projection gives the Patriots 60% win probability, with the opening line favoring New England by 7 points. The Patriots just defeated the Texans 28-16 in the divisional round, powered by rookie QB Drake Maye and standout receiver Kayshon Boutte. Meanwhile, the Broncos outlasted the Bills 33-30 in overtime, but lost starting quarterback Bo Nix to a fractured ankle, forcing backup Jarrett Stidham into the spotlight for the most important game of the season.

The Patriots lead the NFL in passing offense, and Drake Maye led the league in QBR during the regular season. The Broncos’ pass defense allowed 57.8% completion rates and plays fourth-best red zone defense in the NFL, but stopping a healthy Patriots offense without their starting quarterback creates massive challenges for Denver’s defense.

Stidham’s Historic Challenge Looms Large

Jarrett Stidham, a 2019 Patriots draft pick, hasn’t started a game since Week 17 of the 2023 season, when he threw for 272 yards in a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. When the AFC Championship Game begins, it will mark 749 days since his last pass attempt, more than double the longest span for any QB starting a playoff game since 1950.

Stidham took just four offensive snaps all season, never attempting a pass. He will become the ninth quarterback since 1950 to make his first start of the season during the playoffs. The other eight quarterbacks went 1-7 in those situations, with only one victory recorded. Notably, Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels coached Stidham in both New England and Las Vegas, providing valuable insight into the backup’s tendencies and strengths.

Defensive Showdown Sets the Stage

Factor	Patriots	Broncos
Record	14-3, #2 AFC Seed	14-3, #1 AFC Seed
QB	Drake Maye (Rising Star)	Jarrett Stidham (Backup)
Pass Defense Ranking	13th in pass block win rate	3rd in pass rush win rate, 2nd in pressure rate
Key Player	Kayshon Boutte, WR	Pat Surtain II, CB (DPOY)

Denver’s defense posted 68 sacks during the regular season, leading the entire NFL by 11 sacks. Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II anchors a secondary that allowed just 57.8% completion rates to opposing QBs. Edge rusher Nik Bonitto and defensive tackle Zach Allen rank among the league’s elite pass rushers, but the Patriots’ offensive line ranked 13th in pass block win rate.

“We’ll rise up for the next challenge.”

— Sean Payton, Denver Broncos Head Coach

Broncos’ Historic Home Field Advantage Could Prove Critical

The Broncos own a 4-0 all-time playoff record at home against the Patriots, and Denver is 3-0 at home in AFC Championship Games. Their only conference championship loss came in 1983 on the road against the Raiders, giving them one of the best playoff home records in NFL history. Altitude advantage and crowd noise could slow down the Patriots’ offense, but that benefit diminishes significantly without Bo Nix leading Denver’s attack.

The Broncos’ offense allowed 1,136 penalty yards this season, most in the NFL. They must avoid costly penalties against the Patriots’ defense, which welcomes back nose tackle Khyiris Tonga after his recent return. Wide receiver Mack Hollins is eligible to return from injured reserve this week, potentially adding weapons for Drake Maye and the New England offense.

Can Denver’s Defense Overcome Quarterback Disadvantage to Reach the Super Bowl?

The Broncos’ resiliency was on full display in their overtime victory against Buffalo, where they recorded their 13th comeback win of the season, fifth-most in a single season. They scored 68 sacks this season while posting fourth-best red zone defense in the NFL, surrendering touchdowns on just 42.6% of opponent red zone drives.

Without Bo Nix, Denver’s path to the Super Bowl rests entirely on their elite defensive unit. Pat Surtain II, safety Talanoa Hufanga, and nickel back Ja’Quan McMillian must contain Drake Maye and the Patriots’ passing game. Success hinges on whether Jarrett Stidham can manage the game without turnovers, allowing Denver’s defense to dominate New England’s inexperienced rookie quarterback.

Sources

• ESPN – AFC Championship Game preview, FPI projections, and playoff analysis
• Denver Broncos Official – Team records, playoff history, and championship game details
• The Boston Globe – Patriots vs Broncos matchup preview and key storylines