Liverpool favored to beat struggling Nottingham Forest 62% win probability at Anfield

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By: Michael Brown

Liverpool enters as heavy favorites against Nottingham Forest on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025. The Reds host the struggling Forest at Anfield with a 62% win probability. This clash pits a home side desperate to climb the table. Meanwhile, Forest arrives winless in their last five away games.

🔥 Quick Facts:

  • Kick-off: 3:00 PM GMT, Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025
  • Venue: Anfield, Liverpool
  • Liverpool’s form: 6-0-5 record, 8th place with 18 points
  • Forest’s form: 2-3-6 record, 19th place with 9 points
  • H2H record: Liverpool leads 4-2 in their last 7 meetings

Head-to-Head Record: Liverpool Dominates Recent Matchups

Liverpool holds a clear advantage against Forest. In their last 7 encounters, the Reds have won 4 times. Forest claimed just 2 victories, with 1 draw between them. Across those meetings, Liverpool scored 25 goals while Forest managed 14. The most recent clash came in January 2025. That match ended 1-1 on Merseyside. Diogo Jota grabbed a second-half equalizer that day.

Statistic Liverpool Nottingham Forest
Last 5 Games (W-D-L) 1-0-4 0-1-4
Home/Away Record 4W-0D-1L (Home) 0W-1D-4L (Away)
Goals Scored (Avg) 1.8 per game 0.9 per game
H2H (Last 7) 4 wins, 25 goals 2 wins, 14 goals
Current League Position 8th place, 18 points 19th place, 9 points

Current Form Analysis: Liverpool Seeks Consistency at Home

Liverpool enters this match looking to stabilize after a rough spell. Their record of 6 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses leaves them sitting 8th place on 18 points. Yet at home, they’re stronger. Anfield has been a fortress with 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss. They’re scoring 2.0 goals per match at home—nearly double their away average.

Nottingham Forest are genuinely struggling this season. With only 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses, they occupy 19th place with just 9 points. Most concerning? Their away form is dreadful. Forest have failed to win in their last 5 away matches. They recently lost 3-1 at home to Leeds. Under new manager Sean Dyche, they’re trying to tighten up. That defensive organization worked early. But the goals haven’t come.

Why Liverpool Are Heavily Favored

The gap between these sides is massive right now. Liverpool boast a 9-point advantage in the standings. More importantly, they’re the superior home team. Anfield has been genuinely difficult to break down this campaign. Forest’s away record is genuinely alarming—they haven’t won on the road in a month. Plus, most prediction models give this Liverpool a 2-0 or 2-1 victory. Expert betting sites favor Liverpool by a wide margin. The 62% win probability reflects both the home advantage and recent form.

Historical data backs it up too. Liverpool have won 4 of their last 7 against Forest. And at Anfield specifically, that advantage grows even steeper. Forest need a miracle performance here. That said, Sean Dyche’s tactical setup has earned them respect defensively. Even so, grind-it-out draws rarely happen when one team is 9 points clear.

Key Factors That Could Decide This Match

  • Anfield atmosphere: Liverpool’s home fans drive them forward. Forest struggle away.
  • Liverpool’s attacking pace: Forest haven’t faced many high-tempo attacks lately. Speed could expose them.
  • Defensive set pieces: Dyche sets Forest up to be compact. Breaking them down takes patience.
  • Goal-scoring efficiency: Liverpool net 2.0 goals at home. Forest struggle to convert chances.
  • Injury news: Liverpool recently suffered a double injury blow from international duty. Watch team news updates closely.

What Should Football Fans Expect?

Expect Liverpool to control the game from the start. Arne Slot’s men should dominate possession and create chances. Forest will likely set up defensively and hope for a set piece. This isn’t a thrilling tactical battle—it’s a clash between a strong home team and a team fighting relegation.

The betting markets reflect the reality here. Liverpool at home favorites make perfect sense. Forest would take a point gladly. But this match is Liverpool’s to lose. Expect goals, expect dominance, and expect the Reds to climb the table with a victory.

Official Previews and Analysis

Check out Liverpool FC’s official preview show on YouTube. They break down team news, tactical setup, and predicted lineups. Arne Slot’s press conference also aired recently, where he confirmed updates on injuries and selection decisions.


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