North Texas favored to crush Rice with 87% win probability, 17.5-point spread Nov 22

North Texas walks into this matchup as a massive favorite. The #22-ranked Mean Green sit at 9-1 this season. Rice has struggled at 5-5. Oddsmakers are backing the hype with North Texas -17.5 on the spread.

Head-to-Head: North Texas Dominates Recent Meetings

Here’s where things get lopsided. North Texas is 6-1 against Rice on the moneyline since 2016. The Mean Green have simply owned this rivalry over the past decade. Looking at the all-time series, North Texas leads 8-5 overall. But the recent trend tells a clearer story—dominance.

In their last 10 matchups, the Mean Green have gone 7-3, including a win in October 2013 through November 2022. North Texas also covers the spread frequently. The sportsbooks know this history. That’s why they’re asking for nearly 18 points of spread cushion.

Form Analysis: North Texas in Elite Shape

North Texas has been nothing short of dominant lately. At 9-1, they’ve earned their #22 ranking—the team’s first AP Poll appearance since 1959. That’s historic. The Mean Green are playing winning football with dangerous offensive weapons. Key threat Wyatt Young has 48 receptions for the season, making him a security blanket for quarterback Drew Mestemaker.

Rice, meanwhile, sits at 5-5 with real bowl eligibility concerns. In their last matchups, Rice lost to Memphis 38-14 and beat UConn 37-34 in double overtime. That inconsistency screams “upset alert prevention.” The Owls are struggling to string together wins in AAC play where they’re 2-4. North Texas is 5-1 in conference. That’s a massive gap.

Key Players & Tactical Matchups

This comes down to talent disparity. Drew Mestemaker at quarterback for North Texas has been a revelation. A redshirt freshman who walked on without big recruiting stars, he’s posting record-setting numbers. His arm talent plus Wyatt Young‘s receiving ability creates matchup nightmares. Rice quarterback Cole Jenkins has been inconsistent. He’s thrown 100 yards recently in losses and struggled to manage games consistently.

Defensively, North Texas has been solid. Rice’s offense ranks lower in the conference. When you combine elite offense against weaker defense, you get blowout potential. That 87% win probability starts making sense real quick.

What Could Go Wrong for North Texas?

North Texas isn’t immune to bad games. Here’s what matters: Are the Mean Green looking ahead to bowl games? Will they overlook a struggling team? Those mental lapses happen in college football. Rice plays at home in Houston, which provides some advantage. Humidity and field familiarity matter in November games. But honestly, the talent gap feels insurmountable.

The weather could impact passing games. If North Texas gets slowed down, Rice might steal a quarter or two. Still, 9-1 don’t play 5-5 close games often. The 17.5-point spread seems realistic given the form, talent, and motivation levels here.

Does North Texas Cover the Full Spread?

Stats suggest yes. North Texas has been covering games against inferior competition. Rice gives up points in chunks. When defenses are porous and offenses are loaded, spreads get smashed. Look for North Texas to pressure early, build a lead, and potentially put this away by halftime. The 87% projection reflects Vegas confidence. All the data points one direction here—should North Texas show up ready to play, covering becomes likely.

Sources

• ESPN – College Football Schedule and Team Statistics
• ActionNetwork – North Texas vs Rice Prediction and Odds
• Sports-Reference – Historical Head-to-Head Records

Michael Brown

Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.