Air freight rates have surged to record highs as the industry enters peak holiday shipping season. Global cargo demand climbed 5% in November 2025 compared to the same month last year, while capacity remains critically tight across major trade routes, driving prices sharply higher.
🔥 Quick Facts
- Global air cargo demand surged 5% year-on-year in November 2025, continuing stronger-than-expected peak season trends
- Rates from Hong Kong to North America jumped to $6.18/kg in November, up from $5.70/kg in October
- Asia capacity remains tight with freighter supply declining 2% year-on-year since May 2025
- Industry forecasts predict demand growth of 3-4% for 2025 but capacity struggles to keep pace
Record Demand Crushes Already-Tight Capacity
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The air cargo market is experiencing a perfect storm of surging e-commerce demand and constrained belly-hold capacity. October 2025 delivered historic records with cargo traffic measured in freight tonne-kilometers reaching all-time highs according to IATA data released on November 28.
Demand increased 4.1% in October 2025 while global capacity expanded only 20% year-on-year, but that growth masks a critical problem. Freighter aircraft supply has declined sharply, with double-digit drops in dedicated freighter availability reported across major logistics networks.
Freight Rates Climbing Across Asia-Pacific Routes
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The rate increases are most pronounced on major Asian export corridors serving North America and Europe. Hong Kong to North America routes climbed from $5.70/kg in October to $6.18/kg in November, representing significant jumps for shippers dependent on fast air delivery for perishables and electronics.
European routes are experiencing parallel pressures with Transatlantic lanes up nearly 25% in dollar terms year-on-year, according to November data from the TAC Index. Strong e-commerce flows and peak holiday shipping are pushing rates to levels not seen since the post-pandemic recovery period.
| Metric | November 2025 Status |
| Global Air Cargo Demand (YoY) | +5% growth |
| Hong Kong-North America Rate | $6.18/kg (up from $5.70/kg) |
| Transatlantic Lane Increase | Up ~25% in dollar terms YoY |
| Global Freighter Capacity Trend | Down 2% YoY since May |
Why Capacity Cannot Keep Up with Holiday Demand
The imbalance between supply and demand reflects structural constraints in the aviation sector. Dedicated freighter deliveries remain delayed due to manufacturing bottlenecks affecting Boeing and Airbus, while existing aircraft aging fleets require maintenance downtime during peak season.
Airlines are struggling to add cargo capacity through passenger belly-hold space, though some growth is expected on European and Middle Eastern routes through late 2025. However, this supplemental capacity cannot match the surge in holiday shipping demand from e-commerce retailers flooding the system with last-minute orders.
December 2025 Tightens Further as Peak Season Accelerates
Industry analysts predict December will see even tighter conditions as peak holiday shipping extends through mid-December with retailers pushing final delivery deadlines. The Baltic Air Freight Index remained firm in early December despite slight weekly fluctuations, signaling sustained rate pressure.
Forwarders report that Asia capacity remains particularly constrained with widespread space challenges for shipments to North America and Europe. Shippers are paying premium rates to secure guaranteed capacity, with some booking freight months in advance.
What Does This Mean for Shippers and Logistics Companies?
Rising air freight costs are forcing companies to make difficult choices about supply chain strategies for 2026. Higher air rates push importers toward ocean freight alternatives despite slower transit times, according to market updates from Maersk and other major forwarders.
The imbalance between demand growing at 4-6% annually while capacity expands only 3-4% suggests elevated rates could persist into early 2026. Logistics providers who locked in capacity early are gaining competitive advantages, while those dependent on spot market pricing face margin pressures.
Patrick Graham is a business and finance journalist translating Wall Street’s complexities into stories that matter to everyday readers. With extensive experience in financial journalism and economic analysis, this expert journalist provides sharp insights on market trends, corporate developments, and the economic forces affecting daily life. His reporting helps readers make sense of the business world’s biggest moves.