Inter vs Milan: Nerazzurri looking to extend 6-game home win streak, favored despite Milan’s 3-0 April shock

The Derby della Madonnina is here. Inter Milan host AC Milan on November 23 at San Siro. The Nerazzurri are riding a 6-game home win streak. But that 3-0 shock from April 2025 is still fresh.

Head-to-Head: Who’s Won More?

Inter hold the edge historically. Across 244 previous meetings in all competitions, the Nerazzurri have 91 wins. AC Milan trail with 82 victories. The remaining 71 matches ended in draws.

But recent form tells a different story. Milan haven’t lost an away derby in their last two attempts. That includes their stunning 3-0 Coppa Italia win on April 23, 2025. The Rossoneri will remember this. Two goals came from Luka Jovic that night.

Still, Inter‘s home record this season is brutal. They’ve won their last 6 consecutive matches at San Siro. That’s a significant advantage they’re looking to extend.

Current Form Analysis: Can Anyone Stop Inter At Home?

Inter’s season has been dominant. They sit in 2nd place with 24 points from 11 games (8 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). That’s an impressive 2.18 points per game average. At home, they’re even stronger: 5 wins and just 1 loss from 6 home matches.

Meanwhile, AC Milan have been inconsistent. Their record shows 6 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss in 11 Serie A games. That’s solid but nowhere near Inter’s consistency. Did you notice the draw heavy record? Milan draws 4 games versus Inter’s zero. This suggests Milan struggles to close out matches.

Statistic	Inter Milan	AC Milan
Record (W-D-L)	8-0-3	6-4-1
Points	24	22
Home Record	5-0-1	TBA
Shots on Target	60	53
Goals Conceded	12	9

What jumps out? Inter are allowing more goals conceded (12 vs 9), yet winning more games. That suggests clinical finishing on offense. Milan’s defense is sharper, but the attack isn’t converting chances.

Key Injuries & Team News Heading Into Sunday

Here’s where things get interesting for Inter. Reports suggest Denzel Dumfries is dealing with an ankle injury. This is a massive concern since Dumfries is central to Inter’s right flank strategy. If he’s unavailable, Carlos Augusto would likely shift to the right side.

AC Milan face their own problems. They’ll be without Santiago Gimenez and Zachary Athekame. These are notable absences for a team already struggling with consistency. Massimiliano Allegri has already confirmed both will miss the derby.

Beyond injuries, momentum matters. Inter are surging at home. Milan come off a 2-2 draw with Parma last time out. That’s the kind of result that doesn’t build confidence in a player’s head.

What To Watch For

• Rafael Leão vs Inter’s defense: Can Milan’s winger terrorize the home side?
• Lautaro Martinez striking form: Inter’s star needs to finish clinical chances late
• Possession battle: Inter typically control the ball. Does Milan counter effectively?
• Set-piece threats: Both teams dangerous from corners. Who converts first?
• Penalty decisions: Derbies always get intense. Expect attention to controversial calls

Why Can Inter Exploit Their Home Advantage?

Here’s the thing about the San Siro on derby day—it’s electric. Inter haven’t lost a home game all season. They’ve won 6 straight matches at their headquarters. Milan haven’t won an away derby in their last two attempts either.

Statistically and psychologically, the numbers tilt Inter’s way. Betting markets installed Inter as favorites at -109 to -102 moneyline odds, depending on the sportsbook. That means for every $109 wagered on Inter, you’d win $100.

But Milan’s upset victory in April proves derbies are unpredictable. Can Inter maintain their home dominance? Or will Milan’s hunger for revenge upset the odds? That’s what makes this 245th meeting so compelling for fans worldwide.