Brian Moynihan, the chief executive officer of Bank of America, delivered a mixed economic message Sunday morning. He warned that American consumers are becoming more cautious amid Trump’s policy uncertainty, yet simultaneously forecast robust 2026 growth driven by artificial intelligence investment.
🔥 Quick Facts
- Bank of America forecasts 2.4% GDP growth in 2026, up from approximately 2% in 2025
- Moynihan appeared on Face the Nation on December 28, 2025, reflecting growing economic caution
- Consumers show concern about tariffs and immigration policies, impacting short-term spending decisions
- Artificial intelligence investment expected to drive economy, offsetting consumer hesitation
Consumer Caution Amid Policy Uncertainty
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Moynihan highlighted growing consumer concern during his appearance on the morning news program. He indicated that American consumers are being more careful about spending decisions, reflecting heightened anxiety about Trump administration policies including tariffs and immigration enforcement.
The Bank of America CEO pointed to internal spending data from the bank’s 68 million customers as evidence of shifting consumer behavior. Despite economic strength through 2025, households are adopting a more cautious approach heading into the new year, particularly in response to policy uncertainty and potential tariff impacts on pricing.
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Bank of America’s economic research team projects surprisingly robust growth for 2026. The 2.4% GDP growth forecast exceeds both 2025’s expected performance and consensus estimates from other major financial institutions.
Moynihan emphasized artificial intelligence as the primary growth engine. The CEO noted AI investment acceleration is creating meaningful economic tailwinds that will counterbalance consumer caution. Technology infrastructure spending by corporations investing in AI capabilities should drive employment and economic activity throughout 2026.
Economic Outlook and Market Positioning
| Metric | 2025 Forecast | 2026 Forecast |
| U.S. GDP Growth | ~2.0% | 2.4% |
| Primary Growth Driver | Consumer Spending | AI Investment |
| Consumer Sentiment | Confident | More Cautious |
| Policy Environment | Stable | Uncertain (Key Risk) |
Bank of America’s economists expect the artificial intelligence boom to create what Moynihan described as “a new phase of growth.” Unlike 2025’s consumption-driven expansion, 2026 growth will likely shift toward capital expenditure-driven investment as technology companies accelerate AI infrastructure buildout.
The forecast assumes stable monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve holding interest rates relatively steady. Moynihan’s comments suggest that even amid consumer caution, underlying economic fundamentals remain solid enough to support above-consensus growth trajectories.
Trump Policy Impacts On Business Confidence
Moynihan’s warnings centered on policy risk, not economic fundamentals. He specifically cited concern over tariff uncertainty and immigration enforcement affecting consumer and business planning. Companies operating internationally face pricing challenges from potential trade barriers, which could ripple through supply chains.
The Bank of America CEO balanced this pessimism with acknowledgment that markets and the economy are adjusting to the new policy environment. Historical precedent suggests that once clarity emerges around actual tariff rates and implementation timelines, business confidence could stabilize.
What Does 2026 Actually Look Like For Your Finances?
Moynihan’s paradoxical message reflects genuine economic complexity. Consumers should prepare for mixed signals throughout the coming year: headlines about AI-driven prosperity alongside caution about spending due to inflation and policy uncertainty.
For investors and savers, the Bank of America outlook suggests opportunity exists in technology and AI-adjacent sectors where capex spending will accelerate. Consumers advised to maintain flexibility given policy uncertainty, while households with stable employment should continue normal spending patterns. The contradiction between caution and growth may define 2026’s economic character.
Patrick Graham is a business and finance journalist translating Wall Street’s complexities into stories that matter to everyday readers. With extensive experience in financial journalism and economic analysis, this expert journalist provides sharp insights on market trends, corporate developments, and the economic forces affecting daily life. His reporting helps readers make sense of the business world’s biggest moves.