Melania paces for $8M opening weekend, doc struggles despite $40M deal

Melania paces for a surprising $8 million opening weekend at the box office. Yet the $75 million documentary funded by Amazon MGM Studios is already facing theater cancellations. A massive bet on the First Lady is turning into a cautionary tale.

Inside the $40 Million Deal That Shocked Hollywood

Amazon MGM Studios outbid Disney, Netflix, and Paramount with a record $40 million offer for documentary rights. The price was $26 million higher than Disney’s second bid. Melania Trump received $28 million from the sale, securing theatrical release and a follow-up docuseries. No documentary had ever commanded such a price tag before.

The combined spending of $75 million represents an enormous gamble in documentary distribution. Industry observers questioned whether theatrical audiences would materialize. Early ticket sales suggest concerns were warranted.

Opening Weekend Tracking Surpasses Initial Estimates

Just days before release, projections ranged from $1 million to $5 million. By Thursday afternoon, estimates climbed to $8 to $9 million across nearly 1,800 theaters. Friday gross reached approximately $2.85 million with no preview screenings. Third-place positioning sent mixed signals to the market.

The documentary format typically draws modest crowds at multiplexes. Melania opened stronger than expected for nonfiction, yet far below break-even given its staggering budget.

Critical and Commercial Challenges Mount

Metric	Status
Runtime	1 hour, 48 minutes
Rating	PG
Theater Count	1,778 to 1,800 venues
Location Timeframe	20 days before 2025 inauguration

WIRED’s analysis of nearly 1,400 Friday showtimes revealed only two sold-out screenings, both before 3 PM. Critics roasted the film as shallow propaganda, with NYT reviewer noting it kept the First Lady behind her facade. Variety’s assessment called the entire venture $75 million of wasteful spending.

Theater cancellations began immediately: Minnesota’s Mann Plymouth Grand 15 pulled the film entirely. South Africa’s distributor withdrew it citing undefined recent developments.

“Melania documents 20 days in the life of the First Lady before inauguration, revealing little beyond her focus on appearance and controlled presentation.”

— NYT Film Critic, The New York Times

Director Brett Ratner Defends the Controversial Documentary

Brett Ratner, returning to filmmaking after years absent, defended the $75 million price tag. He emphasized this wasn’t about political corruption but artistic vision. The acclaimed director behind Rush Hour, X-Men, and music videos sought to create an intimate chronicle of the First Lady.

Yet critical consensus suggests the film failed its mission. Reviewers found it stage-managed, superficial, and overproduced. Amazon’s investment appears increasingly difficult to justify given weak box office performance and negative reception.

Is This Documentary Investment Model Sustainable for Streaming Giants?

The Melania documentary raises serious questions about theatrical releases for prestige nonfiction. Streaming services have historically found documentaries more valuable on platforms than in multiplexes. Why did Amazon demand theatrical exhibition over Netflix and Paramount’s streaming-only offers?

Early returns suggest the high-budget theatrical documentary gamble may redefine expectations. Future investments will likely emphasize platform-native strategies. The Melania case demonstrates that star power alone cannot guarantee box office success, especially when critics pan the final product.

Sources

• The Hollywood Reporter – Exclusive box office tracking and opening weekend projections.
• The New York Times – Financing background and critical film review.
• Deadline – Real-time box office reporting and industry analysis.