Bengals vs Patriots odds heavily favor New England’s 8-game winning streak, Burrow out

New England Patriots dominate the betting market heading into Sunday Nov. 23 against the Cincinnati Bengals. The 9-2 Patriots sit as heavy 7.5-point favorites. Crucially, Joe Burrow is OUT with a toe injury. This sets up a massive matchup for Drake Maye and the streaking Patriots.

Why New England’s Dominance This Season Is For Real

The Patriots looked headed for another rebuild just weeks ago. Now? They’re absolutely rolling. Mike Vrabel has transformed this team in his first year as head coach. New England won more games already than they did over the entire last two seasons combined.

That’s not a typo. The 9-2 record represents a complete turnaround. Vrabel becomes just the third NFL coach in 55 years to orchestrate an eight-game winning streak in his debut season. The locker room believes. The organization believes.

And Drake Maye? He’s leading this charge with elite precision. Through 11 games, the young quarterback has thrown for 2,836 passing yards and maintained just 5 interceptions against 20 touchdowns. His 73.2 QBR ranks 2nd in the entire league. That’s MVP-caliber performance from a rookie.

Cincinnati’s House of Cards Without Joe Burrow

The Bengals can’t catch a break. Joe Burrow underwent toe surgery on Sept. 19 after suffering a turf toe injury in Week 2. He was initially expected to return within three months. But as of Saturday Nov. 22, the Bengals officially ruled him out for this matchup.

Joe Flacco will make his sixth straight start. The veteran has done decent work in relief, but this is a tall mountain. The Patriots defense ranks near the top in the league. Flacco hasn’t faced a lineup quite this stingy all season long.

Cincinnati sits at just 3-7. Their playoff hopes are fading fast. A loss here essentially ends their season. And without their star quarterback, the odds feel stacked against them.

Head-to-Head: Patriots Hold Clear Edge

History favors New England. The teams have met 28 times, with the Patriots dominating the all-time series 18-10. That’s a 64.3% win rate for the visitors today. But the real story? The Patriots have had better form recently. Their last five games show consistent excellence.

Matchup Factor	Patriots	Bengals
All-Time Record	18-10	0-0 (this game)
Current Record	9-2	3-7
QB Situation	Drake Maye (20 TDs)	Joe Flacco (backup)
Winning Streak	8 games	Struggling

The Patriots are favored to extend their success. Don’t be shocked if they dominate early. Cincinnati has fought hard but faces an uphill battle without its franchise quarterback.

Can the Bengals Avoid Complete Collapse?

Here’s what’s at stake: A Bengals loss essentially kills their playoff hopes. They’re already 3-7, sitting in last place in their division. The offense has struggled all season. Defense has been porous at times. Joe Flacco is a solid veteran, but he’s not the answer for this franchise long-term.

Plus, the betting market doesn’t believe in them. Bengals are +270 on the moneyline. That means a $100 bet would return $270 profit if they pull off the upset. But at 7.5 points down, most experts see this as a Patriots win waiting to happen.

Cincinnati needs a complete performance. The defense must create turnovers. Flacco can’t have a bad game. And somehow, the offense needs to score more than the Patriots. None of that seems likely given current form.

Will Drake Maye Hit 21 Touchdowns This Weekend?

Drake Maye is on an absolute tear. He’s already at 20 touchdowns through just 11 games. If he throws one more, he hits a milestone. And hey, against a Bengals defense ranked 31st in pressure rate? It’s totally possible.

The young quarterback doesn’t just manage games. He dominates them. Stefon Diggs and Brandin Cook have been reliable targets. The running game with Rhamondre Stevenson adds balance. This is a complete offensive system under Vrabel.

Can he keep the momentum rolling and the touchdown machine working? Everything points to yes. The Patriots will likely control this game from start to finish. Maye should get chances to extend that touchdown total.

What to Expect on Sunday

• Patriots win by 7-10 points based on spread
• Drake Maye throws 2+ touchdowns
• Joe Flacco manages game without major mistakes
• New England extends streak to 9 games to make franchise history
• Final score lands somewhere near 28-21 Patriots

Sources

• ESPN – Latest odds and NFL statistics through Nov. 23, 2025
• CBS Sports – Betting analysis and injury reports
• NFL.com – Official injury designations and player statistics