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Glance at Trevor Ariza’s Scoring Efficiency this Year

Just a quick look at Houston Rockets guard Trevor Ariza’s scoring efficiency (in terms of true shooting%) over the course of this season:

The red line represents league average true shooting% (about 54%).  It is rare indeed when Ariza is able to match this number; he has done it only 9 times this season.

And here we show the distribution over these games:

The “norm” curve represents the expected distribution of TS% for 45 games, the number of games Ariza has played thus far, based on season average TS% (about 46%) and the standard deviation (about 13%).  The green curve represents the corresponding expected distribution for the following 6 comparable players: Richard Hamilton, Rudy Gay, Luol Deng, O.J. Mayo, Andre Iguodala, and Caron Butler. They were chosen because they are the 6 wing players who’ve played at least 1000 minutes this season that get the closest number of scoring attempts per game to Ariza (about 17).  Over the games for these 6 comparable players, the mean TS% for them was 52% and the standard deviation was 13%. You can think of the green curve as representing the distribution of TS% we should expect from Ariza considering how often he shoots.

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