Johnny Rocket

I think there is good reason to be optimistic about Lawson's three-point shooting.  He shot threes very well at the beginning of his career (over 40 percent, though with limited number of shots), and then once he became more of the focal point of Denver's offense, he shot more three pointers for a far worse percentage.  I'm betting that a lot of those additional three pointers were of the "shot clock is running down, time to jack it" variety.  The stats on NBA Reference.Com provide some support for that assumption.  In his first two years in the league (when he shot the three ball well), 20-25 percent of his three-point shots were from the corners; last year less than 10 percent of his three-point shots were from the corners. It seems reasonable to predict that working with Harden he is going to get a lot of wide-open spot up threes, and that he's going to hit more than 40 percent of those.  And teams will have to be very careful about their run outs since Lawson is so proficient in driving to the rim.

 

The Rocket offense is going to be very, very difficult to stop.

I'm still not quite sure why the consensus seems to be that D-MO is superior to TJ.  I totally get that there are major questions about TJ--he's disappeared for two years in the playoffs now, he may be a bit undersized to defend some biggers PFs, and his three-point shot (to be charitable) needs a lot of work.  But D-Mo also has a lot of question marks.  He's never posted a league-average PER, he was unreliable after the All-Star break last year, he's not a good rebounder, and he's coming back from major back surgery.  He was pretty bad in the regular season against key playoff teams such as GS and LA Clippers (look the splits at NBA.com), which does not give and one great confidence that he would have been that much better than TJ in the playoffs.  At the end of the day, you have two young PFs brimming with potential, but with a lot of "known unknowns" that will have to be sorted out.  The Rox should be patient and see how each develops over the season.

D-Mo is a strong rotation player who has great defensive positioning, excellent post moves, and a very good three-point shot.  As Rockets Best Fan points out, he has some important weaknesses.  He's a bit too slow to cover small-ball fours, and his post game isn't quite good enough to make up for the defensive disadvantages.  I don't see, for example, how D-Mo helps the Rox against the smaller line ups that Golden State likes to use. His lack of athleticism shows up in other areas as well--he has a low shot-blocking rate and a low defensive rebounding rate for a seven-footer.  Even if D-Mo continues to develop his offensive game, these limitations will make him a liability  against certain lineups.  In the end, the Rox will need to see improvement from T-Jones as well as D-Mo to have a shot at the championship.  At their best, those two are complementary pieces that give the Rox a lot of flexibility at the four and intriguing options at the five as well if Howard misses extended times.  The good news is that both are hard workers, and we can expect further improvement this season.

I agree that there is no realistic way of getting Love or LMA.  Trading Jones and the pick for Lawson is the best move the Rockets could make.  And I would also keep Beverly and Brewer.  As I've said before, matching up with the Golden State's "small" lineup as best we can should be our preeminent goal this offseason.

Thanks for the post, Rahat, and congratulations!

 

A few observations that generally fits with the consensus on the board:

 

1.  I'm a huge Terrance Jones fan, but I agree he was a big weakness for us in the playoffs.  I really didn't have a problem with his defense--you give something up when you go to a quicker, slightly undersized 4--but his lack of three-point shooting really killed us. He shot only 16 percent (!!!) from tthree in the playoffs.  He's somewhat better than that during the regular season, but as I see his form, I worry he'll never develop a consistent and dependable three-point shot.  I'll add that next year the Rox will have to resign D-Mo, TJ, and probably Howard.  Even though the cap is going way up, I'm not sure we'll be able to afford all three.

 

2.  Our major goal in the off-season should be devoted finding personnel that can match up against Golden State's small lineup where they put D. Green at center and surround him with four great shooting and great passing guards.  That lineup really exposed our lack of athleticism at point guard.  With that in mind, it makes sense for the Rox to trade for a guy like Lawson AND keep Beverly at the same time.  A small lineup of Lawson, Beverly, Harden, Ariza,and D-Mo gives us several ball handlers and passable three-point shooting at all positions. 

 

3.  Some folks have called into question Lawson's shooting and defense.  Lawson shot 40 percent on threes in first couple of years in the league as a spot up shooter.  This past year he was forced to take more threes off the dribble (the price of playing on a bad team), which necessarily lowered his shooting percentage.  He'll be in better position with the Rox.  And even though he's short, he has the quickness and low center of gravity to stop dribble-penetration and help on double teams.  He's never played in an environment that has stressed defense, but he has the talent to be strong defender--certainly a major upgrade over Terry.