After our Blazers loss, I took a look at our past games in January and February, specifically at our fourth quarter performances, in the light of our struggles mainly offensively when heading into the most important segment of the game. I didn't calculate any advanced statistics, but we were outscored in the fourth quarter many times, in both our wins and our losses. Of course, some of these fourth quarter performances shouldn't be taken into account, since if they are either blow-out wins our losses, Harden and our starters aren't there for the majority of the time, and neither are the opponents starters, negating the importance of the quarter.
Thus I compiled some basic stats, focusing on some of the closer games, like the
Bulls game (in January) (outscored 16-31, loss)
Magic (outscored 28-36, loss),
Cavaliers (outscored them 32-19, win by 12)
Pacers (outscored 21-30, win)
Suns (outscored 26-34, win on Harden buzzer beater)
Mavs (outscored them 18-16, win by 5)
Celtics (outscored them 24-23, win)
Pistons (outscored them 32-28, loss) (10+ deficit at 3rd Q)
Bulls again (outscored them 26-20, win)
Bucks (outscored 21-29, win)
Blazers (outscored 18-28, loss)
In 4 of the losses we only outscored them once; In 4 of the losses, we led or were within 2 at the third quarter in 3 of the games, indicating how pivotal the 4th quarter mattered in those games.
From the eye test, I've come up with a few observations and conclusions about our 4th quarters:
1) Harden is doubled a lot, especially in recent games. This slows down our offence significantly.
2) Rockets elect to play a pick and roll with Harden and Beverly, with Harden setting the pick, or rather, setting himself up near the top of the key, with Beverly maneuvering towards him to use him as a pick -- this aims to get a mismatch by forcing a switch, but Harden's man, usually the team's best wing defender, just sticks to Harden. This play often results in a Beverly FG attempt, such as a drive and runner to the hoop, or a step-back jumper: IMO a wasted possession, with little to no ball movement.
3) Rockets rarely go with D-Mo in the fourth quarter, thus post presence is gone. Howard attempts end up a lot with TOs. (I don't have the statistics in terms of 4th Q scoring for individual players) End up jacking a lot of high risk high reward three's, while opposing teams elect to go to the paint for the higher percentage shot.
4) Harden is clutch. If Harden can get the ball isolated, or the Rockets can run their normal offence with lot of pick and rolls with him as the ball handler, he is money. Unfortunately, many teams change their defensive dynamics in the fourth quarter, choosing to double him when he passes half court. Harden himself does not do a lot of off-ball movement, thus he gets the ball, waits for the double team and then passes it out, however the double comes rather slowly, so Harden waits too, this kills the clock and totally disrupts any offensive flow.
5) When our offence doesn't flow, IMO our defence suffers as well. This is simply my guess, a chain-reaction sort of, where when guys are not involved in the offence or their shots are not falling, their attention on defence drops as well. Our defence has been pretty bad come 4th quarters, though whether it's this reason or not is debatable.
Overall, our offence stagnates if we cannot effectively get Harden the ball and put him in one of his sweet spots, or we can't play through him. Teams will double him, and currently, that seems to be the most effective tactic when dealing with this Rockets offence. Keep in mind though, that Dwight Howard hasn't been healthy, and I believe he is a more dependable offensive force when so. Also, in the few times D-Mo is featured offensively, he produces. The Rockets have options, it depends on how they utilise them.
Still, I believe the urgency for a secondary playmaker is real and necessary. Even given our current offensive options of Harden, Howard, D-Mo and the shooters, I think our offence is still mostly predictable and slightly one-dimensional: the ball is of course going to go to Harden. Every time I see that pick and roll of Harden and Beverly, though, I'm fantasising about a situation with a capable playmaking PG there to run the offence when Harden's off and, SOMETIMES, when Harden is on the court; I think Harden can play off-ball sometimes, with a lot of off-ball screens and movement designed to get him open, and that PG thus forcing the defence to pick their poison: do you still double Harden when's he's moving and without the ball? If you do, that's going to open up someone on the field, and if you don't, this capable PG would theoretically still be able to get some good offence. The best offences in the league (the Hawks and those cocky Warriors) emphasize off-ball screens and movement to open up their shooters and scorers, and we should perhaps learn a few things from them. With a PG with good vision and passing, and some clever plays that take advantage of the defensive attention on Harden, I think we can become very potent and unpredictable, disrupting opponent defensive sets, with Harden switching between on and off ball duties. Beverly simply is not this point guard, regardless of his defence, which can still be stellar.
What do you guys think, on 4th quarter performances and how the Rockets can get back on track in this aspect? Other than blowing the opponent out by the 3rd quarter of course .