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[Red94]

New post: The Red94 Podcast: On the Jason Terry trade and Rajon Rondo speculation
By: rahat huq

In today's episode, Forrest Walker and I broke down the trade that brought Jason Terry to the Rockets and also discussed the speculation surrounding Boston Celtics guard Rajon Rondo.

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[Johnny Rocket]

Man, Rondo's numbers over the last three years are pretty ugly for a player of his repute.  I know he's battled injuries, but he seems just as much as a gamble as Bledsoe.  I don't think Morey pulls the trigger until he sees how Rondo is playing this year.

[Doug]

(My apologies if this posts twice.)

The idea that we’d include Terrence Jones in any trade for Rondo is insane to me. I don’t think I’d trade Jones for Rondo straight up, let alone include him with other assets for Rondo.

Jones bordered on elite last year, only his second in the league. His effective field goal percentage was an amazing 56% and his true shooting percentage was an equally amazing 57%. The average power forward last year had an effective field goal percentage of 49% and a true shooting percentage of 54%. Jones scored 21 points per 48 minutes, slightly above the average of 20 points for a power forward. He was also an average rebounder at power forward, despite playing next to Dwight Howard. Jones also didn’t turn the ball over much and blocked an above-average amount of shots, combined with an average amount of steals Did I mention this was only his second year in the league? All of these numbers compare favorable to what Ibaka did in his second year in the league, except Ibaka had more blocks and more fouls. (And, in fact, they compare favorably to what Ibama did this year.)

Was Jones a bit too up and down? Maybe. It’s true that he seemed to follow up really great games with bad games, although I haven’t seen any numbers to confirm that, although he did put up substantially better numbers in our wins than our loses. That being said, it was only his second year in the league and it shouldn’t be surprising that he wasn’t especially consistent. This should be especially unsurprising because he barely played his first year in the league. Oh, and he also put up much better numbers post All Star break than pre All Star break, meaning he seemed to improve as the year went on. Of course, box score statistics don’t really do a great job of capturing defense, and, at least by the eye test, Jones seemed to be a below average defender. But, again, this past year was the first year he played meaningful minutes. I would give him time to improve on defense. He is crazy athletic, and my guess is he’ll improve here.

If we got rid of Jones, we’d have to give Montiejunas more minutes. Despite the fact that Montiejunas received significant playing time last year -- he played nearly 1000 minutes, half of what Jones played -- he did not play well. Motiejunas had an effective field goal percentage of 48% and a true shooting percentage of 51.5%, both below average and well below Jones. In fact, Jones’s per minute box-score stats were all better than Motiejunas. Motiejunas looks so smooth on offense because he has so many moves. But while he looks good, he doesn’t make shots. That’s the bottom line. He isn’t a good offensive player. Might he go from being below average to above average? Maybe. He’s also young. But it would be a big gamble.

So, to trade Jones for Rondo, we’d improve marginally at the point guard position to get a lot worse at the power forward position. That makes no sense to me.

[datruth]

For Rondo to be effective he must have the ball in his hands.
Rondo will have to change his game to play with harden.
last year rondo fg. 40%,
29% 3 pt shooter,
62% from the free throw line
Rondo is not a spot up shooter

[thejohnnygold]

Assuming Rondo would be a spot up shooter for us is the same as assuming Jeff Adrien is going to come in and be a stretch 4 for us. 

 

I realize they are different caliber players, but the point is the wise thing to do is to let a player play to their strengths.  Rondo's strength is breaking down defenses, getting to the rim, and getting other players easy, open shots.

 

James Harden runs the point for us because he is the best player we have on the roster to do that.  Rondo would take a lot of that from him.  Last year's numbers are somewhat of a throw-away.  He played in 30 games a year after playing 38.  To say he is rusty is an understatement.  If you want to question is health and durability that is valid as he has missed significant time the last 4 years.

 

His benefit on offense is getting others good looks (thus increasing their overall efficiency) which offsets his lackluster shooting.  Averaging 11 assists a game 3 years in a row doesn't just happen.  He is best when surrounded by talent (thanks, Captain Obvious!) and that is what we would have here.

 

He is not a lock-down defender (those are rare), but he has the size, athleticism, and tenacity to make life difficult for opposing PG's.

 

Getting back to Harden--imagine James being MORE efficient than he already is.  With Rondo, that is highly likely.  Imagine that 20% usage that Parsons used up last season and putting it into Rondo's hands.  Those plays will wind up with Rondo getting to the rim a lot of the time (scoring 60% of those), and then (over the last 4 years) he has not had an ast% lower than 47% (meaning he gets an assist 47% of the time he "runs a play").  That isn't the black hole that his fg% portrays.

 

Now, I am NOT for a Rondo trade because I think waiting a year and getting him straight up is wiser.  I also think letting Bev play another season and seeing what we have with him is a good idea.  I also want to see if Rondo can play a full season.

 

I think it is easy to forget how dominant Rondo can be because we haven't seen it in a while.  There were lots of times when he was playing with the big 3 that he was the best player on the floor.  That is all I need to know.  He is the passing version of Russell Westbrook.  Like him or not, he is going to help your team win games.  In a series with OKC, SA, or the Clips he is the kind of player who can steal you that extra game you need to clinch the series....if he gets back to where he was....which we are all (Morey included) waiting to see.

 

"Rondo is not a spot up shooter".  We know that.  If it was a spot up shooter we wanted we'd go all in for Korver, Allen, Redick, or Gerald Green.  We are looking for a star who brings elite talent to the team.  When healthy, Rondo is every bit that guy.

 

I do not expect Morey to trade for him unless the asking price drops significantly or he is playing the best ball of his career.

[Buckko]

Rondo is not the scorer and shooter Westbrook is. IMO RW is 2nd or at least tied at 2nd with curry behind CP as the best PG in the nba. I think he will become the best PG soon because he isn't even in his prime while CP is 28 and constantly dealing with injuries.

[bboley24]

A.)  Terrence Jones is FAR from the border of the area of getting to any borders closeby a truckstop heading towards elite. Whether or not we want Rondo or not, Jones for Rondo is a heartbeat deal.  Jones contract is about to be up and Rondo has much more of a trade bait acquisition than TJones will ever be.

B.)  RW isn't a point guard any more than Dwade or Allen Iverson. My guess is that people tend to throw him into the PG category because of his height and who he plays next to in rotations.  If Westbrook is a point guard, then so is James Harden.

[thejohnnygold]

Rondo is not the scorer and shooter Westbrook is. IMO RW is 2nd or at least tied at 2nd with curry behind CP as the best PG in the nba. I think he will become the best PG soon because he isn't even in his prime while CP is 28 and constantly dealing with injuries.

 

I'm not clear when Westbrook came into this discussion, but does anybody need to be told that he is a better scorer than Rondo?  My previous post stands....Rondo would not be brought in to be a "scorer"--why does it seem like everyone wants to take a square peg and cram it into a round hole?  People can keep reminding me that he is a bad shooter/scorer and I will continue to remind that his poor shooting didn't seem to interfere with winning an NBA title and dominating games along the way.  Not every player on the court has to be an elite shooter--especially if they have other elite skills to contribute.

 

A.)  Terrence Jones is FAR from the border of the area of getting to any borders closeby a truckstop heading towards elite. Whether or not we want Rondo or not, Jones for Rondo is a heartbeat deal.  Jones contract is about to be up and Rondo has much more of a trade bait acquisition than TJones will ever be.

B.)  RW isn't a point guard any more than Dwade or Allen Iverson. My guess is that people tend to throw him into the PG category because of his height and who he plays next to in rotations.  If Westbrook is a point guard, then so is James Harden.

 

Speaking of elite--only one person around here seems to think TJ is on the verge of elite....and the support for that was flimsy.  I do think he is on the verge of being solid with moments of awesome sprinkled in.  That's fine by me.

 

I agree on your assessment of Westbrook as a "PG".  

[Buckko]

B.)  RW isn't a point guard any more than Dwade or Allen Iverson. My guess is that people tend to throw him into the PG category because of his height and who he plays next to in rotations.  If Westbrook is a point guard, then so is James Harden.

 

Well the idea of point guard has changed from traditional pass 1st PG of past styles of the nba. If you wish to stop calling RW a PG and instead a combo scoring guard, then the rule must apply to everyone including dragic, bledsoe, rose, curry, conley, Lillard, Lowery, Irving, ect... The only true pass first PGs left in the league really are rondo, CP, and rubio. If you wish to eliminate the terms PG and SG all together if they no longer suffice to you, then start a petition. I'll be first to sign 

 

 

 

 People can keep reminding me that he is a bad shooter/scorer and I will continue to remind that his poor shooting didn't seem to interfere with winning an NBA title and dominating games along the way.  Not every player on the court has to be an elite shooter--especially if they have other elite skills to contribute.

 

True, but the celtics also had good shooters at every position besides PG, including the greatest 3pt shooter of all time in Allen, Garnett in his prime (Who easily is the 3rd best player of the past generation behind duncan and kobe) along with pierce. A stacked bench and an ungodly defense. All of which we do not have, thus I see no value of rondo on a gutted version of this team.

 

Now my opinion on Jones is if he develops an average corner 3, decent mid range game, better on man/post defense, defensive rebounding/boxing out, and overall defensive awareness. He can be an allstar caliber talent (now he will never be an allstar in the west, because the forward position is so stacked, but talent and skill wise worthy). Now that is a lot of "ifs", but it is possible. We'll just have to wait and see. Then evaluate which I think Morey is doing. 

Edited by Buckko, 07 September 2014 - 08:09 AM.

[thejohnnygold]

True, but the celtics also had good shooters at every position besides PG, including the greatest 3pt shooter of all time in Allen, Garnett in his prime (Who easily is the 3rd best player of the past generation behind duncan and kobe) along with pierce. A stacked bench and an ungodly defense. All of which we do not have, thus I see no value of rondo on a gutted version of this team.

 

Now my opinion on Jones is if he develops an average corner 3, decent mid range game, better on man/post defense, defensive rebounding/boxing out, and overall defensive awareness. He can be an allstar caliber talent (now he will never be an allstar in the west, because the forward position is so stacked, but talent and skill wise worthy). Now that is a lot of "ifs", but it is possible. We'll just have to wait and see. Then evaluate which I think Morey is doing. 

 

I did not feel compelled to mention the "Big 3" because we all are aware of the situation they had---which you and I seem to view quite differently.

 

Yes, they had quality all around him.  This is why I believe that, despite his shortcomings, he would work with our roster.  Kevin Garnett in his prime is a bit of a stretch--that was his 13th season and he was 31-32 years old.  His legs were already giving out on him.  Yes, he was still a high level player, but not the same guy who dragged Minnesota around on his back for the previous decade.

 

Allen was also in the same boat, having dragged the Bucks and Sonics around forever.  Pierce--the same.  What they had was three very high IQ players who were able to overcome their physical atrophy with smart, consistent play.  They also had solid role players for sure--many of whom were defensive aces: Tony Allen, James Posey, and Kendrick Perkins.

 

You stated that Houston is far, far from this.  To a degree, yes, that can be argued.  However, I would argue that we are closer than people think.

 

James Harden would be our equivalent to Paul Pierce.  He is already a heady, elite scorer and, at 25 years old, is only going to gain more guile as he progresses.  As Rahat likes to say, he is going to age like fine wine--much like Pierce did.

 

Dwight Howard.  Where Garnett brought leadership and defensive intensity Dwight is primed to do the same for us.  He isn't the pick and pop partner that Garnett was for Rondo, but Garnett at that point in his career was not the interior finisher that Dwight is today.  This can work just fine.

 

Troy Daniels is primed to provide the same three point shooting for us that Allen did for them.  He has already shown his end-game stones and, while his all-around game has yet to be shown, he has the ability to do for us what Allen did for Boston.  It's not like Allen was known for his defense--ever.

 

There's your "Big 3".  I know--not yet a Hall of Fame list; yet, the abilities are there--who cares about the credentials?  Those will come if they put it together and win championships.

 

As for the bench--that's debatable and we will see.  There is a lot to like.  Nobody knew who Toni Kukoc was until he started killing teams off the bench in Chicago.  Papanikoloau is in the same mold.  Pat Beverley moves to the bench--that's solid.  Francisco Garcia can still ball and last year's dud seems to have been an anomaly of sorts as he killed it in FIBA play.  Terrence Jones and D-Mo are still up-and-comers despite the eternity it seems we have been waiting for them.  We are on the precipice of when they should actually begin to truly blossom.  If they do, as I believe they will, we will have two solid, versatile bigs.  Jason Terry, for now, would be our version of Sam Cassell for the Celts.  One of Jeff Adrien/Joey Dorsey is going to take on a Leon Powe/Glen Davis role for us.  The similarities are there.  The talent is there.  To imply that Rondo would not be in a similar situation, in my opinion, is somewhat misguided.  

 

I think he would be surrounded by talent--both on the wings and inside.  Oh, I forgot Trevor Ariza--Mr. Consolation Prize--this is another grossly under-estimated piece of the puzzle.  The guy is extremely talented and on this roster, having a defined role, free of the burden of trying to carry a mediocre team, and with an elite PG setting him up there is no reason for him not to replicate his success from last season.

 

As for coaching, Doc Rivers was on the hot seat and fans had long been calling for his head in Boston prior to that championship run.  Funny how winning changes things.  McHale would silence most of his critics if we get to the finals.  With Rondo, and the rest of these guys, I think Houston could do just that.  (I think we can do it without Rondo as well)  By the way, that was Tom Thibodeau on the bench for Rivers...where is our Thibs, Morey?!?!?!

 

Getting back to Jones, I agree.  He will most likely never see the floor of an All-Star game.  That does not mean he can't be an "all-star" for us.  It has been said before, but I will say it again.  He is 22.  In an ideal world, he would be entering his rookie year after 4 years in college.  In reality, he is entering his 2nd year (first year was all-D-League).  The ceiling for him is still very high.  We get spoiled by the players who come in and excel in their first year.  For most players, this is not the reality.  In case people forgot, Kevin Durant did not set the world on fire his first year either.  He showed the flashes necessary to know that patience would pay off--which is what we have with Jones.  Look at Kobe--he didn't break a PER of 20+ until his 4th season.  I'm not saying Jones is on their level--just saying that even the best players need time to acclimate--especially, when they enter the league early.

 

Long story short--We agree that Rondo needs to be surrounded by talent to be useful.  I think the talent is here.  What this circus could really use is a ring leader--either on the court or off it--since we're sticking with McHale then on the court would be the place to look.

 

Another last thought--it's not like Garnett, Allen, and Pierce spent their entire careers on crummy teams.  Each had their shots with solid rosters--and fell short.  It wasn't until they had an elite, play-making PG that it all came together.  I'm not saying that was the only factor, but it certainly seemed to help.

[rockets best fan]

@Rahat/Forrest

good discussion guys. I agree Terry's impact hear will be minimal unless he goes ballistic. on the Rondo subject....... JG I agree with your assessment of Rondo's skillset. to much focus on his outside shooting. he is a defense destroyer. his attacking style breaks down defenses. with that said JG I also agree I am cool on his acquisition, but for different reasons. Rahat you have the perfect description of the problem. he can be the experiment that blows up the lab or the missing ingredient. hard to tell at this point, besides I would much rather wait even if that was the way the Rockets went to see if Rondo will return to allstar form. in his play after coming back from injury last year, I was unimpressed.  I would much rather have one of the Phoenix guards(Bledsoe/Dragic). TOTALLY DISAGREEMENT ON GIVING UP T-JONES FOR RONDO. TOTALLY!!!!!!  I think at this point it's in the Rockets best interest to keep both T-jones and D-Mo, however I'm more high on T-Jones than D-Mo. I disagree Forrest.....you're giving up way to much for Rondo. I'm with Rahat........Canaan and the picks is about all I can see doing if you're going to do it at all. Ainge is between a rock and a hard place with Rondo. he's not dealing from a position of strength. he has an injury prone allstar caliber PG who is in the last year of his contract who will leave if he's not moved before the trade deadline, and on top of that he needs to move him in a weak PG market. sounds like he better take what he can get to me. the closer he gets to the deadline the offers will get weaker....not stronger. I

[Buckko]

You guys do realize there would be no floor spacing at all with jones and rondo on the floor unless jones decides to turn into Ryan Anderson. Dwight would be mauled by defenders in the post helping off and harden would be swarmed the second he touches the ball. There is a reason people keep bringing up rondo's shooting, it's because floor spacing is everything in the modern nba offense.

[Red94]

^You'd be fine with Motiejunas over Jones.

[thejohnnygold]

You guys do realize there would be no floor spacing at all with jones and rondo on the floor unless jones decides to turn into Ryan Anderson. Dwight would be mauled by defenders in the post helping off and harden would be swarmed the second he touches the ball. There is a reason people keep bringing up rondo's shooting, it's because floor spacing is everything in the modern nba offense.

 

You do realize there would be an adjustment in our system and style of play if Rondo comes here.  Harden will play more off the ball allowing Rondo to bend the defense first to set him up.  I think we can all safely presume Terrence Jones knows his best chance at staying on this team (and in the NBA) is to get those mid-range/threes to start falling more.  He has the range, but just needs to increase the consistency.  Who here thinks he didn't spend the Summer jacking 1,000+ shots a day?  He will get the corner three down.

 

People also seem to forget what an inside-out offense looks like.  I have zero doubts both Dwight and Terrence spent time this Summer working on kicking the ball out from the post to open shooters.  Both can score in the post.

 

Look, Rahat has alluded to it, but let's get real here.  The slash and kick, rim, free, and 3, do or die offense we ran with Harden/Lin/Parsons pre-Dwight is the equivalent of the spread offenses football teams run at middling schools to compensate for lack of talent.  We are no longer lacking talent.  Running a more "pro-style" offense is coming.  Yes, we will still shoot lots of free throws, three pointers, and shots at the rim.  The difference will be how those get set up.  It's not like we are the only team in the league to figure out lay-ups and dunks are good shots.  A good PG will set up those easy looks.  A good team can let the offense flow and come to them--Houston spent that season forcing the issue to the nth degree.  Houston found themselves up a creek once the playoffs came around and teams closed that lane down.

 

It's simple, Terrence Jones needs 1 good shot.  Look at Garnett, Ibaka, and even Duncan (when he wanders far from the basket).  They've all got a spot...they can add more from there, but they only need the 1.

 

NBA players are not static.  They are going to evolve; especially, when you consider that Jones is 22 in his 2nd year and loaded to the gills with athletic gifts and coordination.  The coordination is the key.  He's got the tools--just needs to learn how to use them properly.  If only he had the time and coaching available to make that happen...

 

Are you telling me Rondo can't run a pick and pop with Jones from the top of the key (he sets up at one of the elbows) with Dwight lurking baseline ready to hit the weakside once his defender is forced to rotate with Harden, Ariza, Daniels, or Beverley on the wings waiting for wide open looks from 3?

 

Dwight would be the biggest beneficiary of all this.  He has to work hard for his buckets because he seldom gets the ball in the post in good position/good timing.  Rondo will get Dwight easy buckets all game long.  I'll have the Dwight-Howard-dunks-a-lot offense, please.

 

Jason Kidd made a hall of fame career shooting 40% for his career and it would have been sub-40% except for that one stellar season he shot 44% (his personal best).  It can work when your other skills are elite and those skills compliment the team you are on.  Also, before you feel compelled to inform me that he developed a three point shot--I am fully aware of this.  That shot didn't reach respectable until around his 10th season and didn't get good until around his 14th.  This would be after two trips to the finals, a 2nd place MVP finish (also a 5th), 10 all-star games, and a slew of NBA all-defensive honors.

 

Floor spacing is everything in the modern NBA--both on offense and defense.  Rondo destroys defensive floor spacing and he does it without shooting the ball well.