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@  rocketrick : (05 July 2014 - 01:30 PM) Pressure builds on Miami Heat and Pat Riley as more and more quality free agents sign with other teams............
@  jorgeaam : (05 July 2014 - 01:46 AM) Spencer Hawes signs 4 year deal with Clippers for $23 million, I liked him for the rockets
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@  feelingsuper... : (04 July 2014 - 07:02 PM) The players on the Rockets that need to know Morey and McHale's focus and long term goals are informed upon those subjects I would presume.
@  kdo : (04 July 2014 - 06:35 PM) It makes your current team's players and fans feel like they are in a limbo. No stability, no focus, no long term goals.
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@  Buckko : (04 July 2014 - 03:35 PM) Go big or go home kdo. I think mirotic is the back up option for the bulls and they could easily S&T his rights.
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@  rocketrick : (03 July 2014 - 07:01 PM) Knicks Meeting with Carmelo This Afternoon in LA --
@  feelingsuper... : (03 July 2014 - 05:34 PM) They are beginning to get priced out of the free agent market as well. Their past tells me they have a plan though.
@  rocketrick : (03 July 2014 - 05:12 PM) Pat Riley and the Miami Heat are on the clock as more free agents are signed elsewhere....
@  txtdo1411 : (03 July 2014 - 04:55 PM) Does whining work better?
@  uojoe82 : (03 July 2014 - 04:54 PM) Rage is uncontrollable violent anger. Jeremy's tweet was quite the opposite.
@  gaiusmariusj : (03 July 2014 - 06:58 AM) Really, you call that rage? We have to redefine the word then.
@  jorgeaam : (03 July 2014 - 05:56 AM) And with Lin's twitter rage, I don't think he'll be staying either, so probably Morey is going to try and get someone else


An analysis on Patrick Beverley's season so far

Patrick Beverley Jeremy Lin Aaron Brooks

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#1 RollingWave


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    Posted 13 December 2013 - 07:14 AM

    Suffice to say that Beverley's season been a mixed bag at best, he's not as bad as some of his critics think but also nowhere as good as his supporters had hoped / claimed.  here's a stat driven / observation supported analysis of what's happening, and what adjustment should be made.
    First, the simple facts. Beverely is playing nearly twice as many minutes per game than last year, his effectiveness has been considerably reduced, but he has actually made some improvements to his game, and his overall effect is still fairly positive. I don't think it's a bad idea to keep starting him, but the some adjustments need to be made.


    Perhaps the most glaring decline in Beverley's effectiveness is his 3 point shot, it came down from an above average .375 to a below average .333 one, though this part is actually the lesser of the concerns, he's taking more shots and the variance is well within expected flucation. If anything, he has made some improvements to his driving game, it's still bad, but it's getting better.


    However, most of the following stats are far more worrisome .


    (last year -> this yea)

    Total Rebounding Rate : 8.7-> 6.8

    Assist rate: 24.2 -> 10.9

    Steal rate : 2.6 -> 2.0

    Block rate : 2.2 -> 1.1


    Unless you were kidding yourself, you understood that scoring was never going to be Beverley's strong suit, and that it would be the little things that keep him in the NBA, while little things are not entirely quantifiable by box scores, the 4 numbers described above is at least a general feeler for how much of little things a guy is doing, and obviously when comparing the same player, and you see a decline like this, you can reasonably conclude he's not doing those little things as well as before.


    However,  one needs to point out that the lineups with Beverley on the floor is still generally quite good,  per 100 posession the team is +7.5 with him on the floor and only +1.8 without him, so he's obviously a net positive contributor for the most part. (granted, tonights turd sandwitch surely will take a chunk off that.)




    So what's going on?


    I think the very simple explaination is that he's simply playing too many minutes to be effective in his approach, I will cite a very easy number to reflect his, last year, per 36 min, he fouled 4.2 times, this year, 3.0 times, less fouls is good right? well maybe not when your an aggressive energy guy, it seems fairly evident that the role of a 30 min starter is making  Beverley change his approach to become less aggressive, which plays very poorly against his strength,  he's never going to be a guy that beat you with mad skillz or size / speed, he's good because he's aggressive and go all out when he's out there, but if he's no longer aggressive and going all out....


    So the conclusion seems fairly obvious, scale his minutes back closer to 20 than 30 and let him be the energy guy who doen't care about trying to conserve energy to play 30+ . that Beverley was much more effective than this current one.


    Would those minutes necceasrily go to Lin though? maybe not, Lin's playing 30min a game and giving him significantly more minutes is likely to have the same issue, the solution? play Aaron Brooks, he's been pretty darn effective, if inconsistent, but really for a 5th guard he's super over qualified at this point.  sure, defensively he's very suspect, but by putting him in 10 min a game your likely to help get a more effective Beverley and maybe in Harden too (another guy that need some scaling back of minutes. though more out of health worries)



    I would also like to point out that Beverley's abiltiy to navigate screens remains very suspect, he often doesn't seem to see it coming at all, the only thing worse than keep doding under the screen would be to be completely killed by the screen and let both the ball handler and roll man to go down the lane 5 on 4.  Beverley does that a lot, he does kinda make up for it in other places, but a lot of defensive breakdown from the first unit starts when Beverley blows a pick.


    This fanpost on the a Memphis fan site demonstrate multiple instance of such plays.




    some of the example you see here, Beverley's failure to properly play the pick (or really even make a decision and stick with it.) cause some pretty bad break downs.







    Screen reading can improve with experience no doubt, especially for guys who are committed to working on their defensive game, but currently, it's still very bad.



    So essentially, they need to break Brooks into the rotation permenantly for at least 8-10min a game usually at the expense of Beverley's current minutes.


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    #2 2016Champions



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    Posted 13 December 2013 - 10:32 AM

    Great post RW, very cool how you're taking screen shots and analysing the plays like that, I hope to see more of this.


    On another note, I wonder what to make of Beverley's DRtg: http://www.basketbal...s/HOU/2014.html


    Drtg is not a good stat to compare between players on different teams, if used at all it should be used to compare between players on the same team. With that being said, Beverley's DRtg is 106 and so is Lin's, but on the other hand Lin's ORtg is 115 and Beverley's is 108. 


    This supports my belief that the defensive benefits of playing Beverley over Lin do not outweigh the offensive benefits of playing Lin over Beverley, not even close. 

    Edited by 2016Champions, 13 December 2013 - 10:35 AM.

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    "We're not satisfied with where we're at, but we're optimistic on where things will go from here" - Daryl Morey

    #3 RollingWave


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      Posted 13 December 2013 - 01:28 PM

      well, this game aside, Lin's also playing starter minutes anyway, so it's not like Beverley is really taking minutes away from him than he would otherwise, at most you'd push Lin 2-3 more minutes

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      #4 TeamBall



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        Posted 13 December 2013 - 06:41 PM

        Great analysis!


        Bev is fantastic on defense and rebounding. However, its like driving, you don't keep your rpm (thats Bev) to the max for long duration. Some of his minutes should go to another spark plug, AB!


        On offense, Bev is left open by defenders for obvious reasons, thus placing more pressure on the other starters.


        Overall, time management can and should be improved!

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