It’s obvious that the team’s shooting would dip during these situations – the game gets tighter and defenses are more locked in.  But the fact that there is such a drastic disparity in the figures in comparison to their peers is certainly cause for concern.  You would expect them to drop below 46% but to a figure in ratio with that tenth best ranking.

What’s going wrong?  As we’ve seen too often, down the stretch in close games, the Rockets abandon their set offense and turn to ISO-ball, looking to James Harden to jack up contested jumpers off of one foot.  Is this by design?

Teams often want to minimize risk in these situations by keeping the ball in the hands of the best player.  The thinking goes that if there are too many passes, and the ball is being distributed amongst lesser players, there is a greater chance of something bad happening.  But is this really applicable?

It would be one thing if the Rockets were running the Princeton offense with all 5 players expected to cooperate in complex read-and-react motions/cuts.  But their traditional offense is a simple high screen and roll.  Is there greater risk in Omer Asik bobbling a pass off the roll than there is off Harden missing a contested stepback ’3′?  (Actually don’t answer that – we may have our answer there as to why the team doesn’t run the pick&roll and why Dwight Howard would be such a significant upgrade…)

But in seriousness, if the fear is of teams trapping Harden and forcing the pass to Asik, why not just run a Lin/Harden pick&roll or Harden/Parsons?  I would think any situation leading to ball movement would be more efficient than a contested jumper.

The Rockets won’t fix this problem before the postseason because it’s probably too late.  But if they lose any close games in the first round due to their stagnant late-game offense, hopefully the front office will have a meeting with the coaching staff to discuss next year’s strategy.  You know the former for sure is aware of this problem.

The post The Rockets in the clutch appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

Among the interesting nuggets was this:

Deciding which player(s) to take in the 2013 NBA Draft will not be the only key decision the Rockets have to make this June. As mentioned above, they have until June 30 to waive Delfino before his $3 million salary for next season becomes fully guaranteed.

The non-guaranteed nature of Delfino’s salary makes him an attractive trade asset on draft day for teams looking to dump salary. The acquiring team could immediately waive Delfino and avoid paying him anything, making him sort of like a “super expiring” contract. However, given the Rockets’ desire to maximize cap room, it would take a fairly significant offer for Houston to pull the trigger on a salary dump trade at this point.

First, that June 30th date is some of that creative financing Houston has become famous for in the Morey years.  Through partial guarantees and mindful maneuvering of critical dates, the Rockets have often created assets where they didn’t exist.

With that out of the way, onto business.  I think you can pretty safely rule out a draft day trade of Delfino.  It’s unlikely that the Dwight Howard situation will have already been resolved–if last summer was any indication–so its highly doubtful that the Rockets will want any incoming salary.

Will they re-sign him?  The safe bet there is ‘no.’  In the Dawson era, the team became crippled by foolish decisions in these types of circumstances, overvaluing its own players when cheaper replacements were readily available.  Moochie Norris anyone?  If Dawson were still at the helm, you could almost put money on a 3 year, $15million Delfino extension.

Delfino’s been instrumental for Houston this year – that’s undebatable.  But tying up long term cash in his services just doesn’t make sense.  If the team fails to get either Howard or Smith, you can pretty much guarantee Delfino is gone.  Re-signing him would then hamper their ability to be a player the next summer.  If they do get Howard, maybe Daryl Morey would consider exceeding the cap for Carlos’ retention – even that seems to be a stretch, but I could see it.

(This is all assuming that Delfino would not agree to sign another one year deal.  The way he’s playing, you can bet some GM will offer him a multi-year contract using part of their MLE.)

It’s tough, but that’s just how it goes to keep flexibility.  You have to try to duplicate production in cheaper ways and save money for the inimitable value (see: Harden, James).  And most of all, you can’t fall in love with your own guys.  It’s a cruel world, but so goes financial responsibility.  If you don’t agree, ask Carrol Dawson how the Francis years worked out.

The post Will the Rockets retain Delfino? appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

As we climb in, I ask about the Rockets’ future. Harden is a piece of the puzzle, Morey says, but not the endgame. Even after signing Harden to a five-year, $80 million extension, Houston is in position to have ample cap room next summer, enough to sign another foundational player. Morey’s not picky about who it is. “We can’t afford to be,” he says.

I just read Chris Ballard’s phenomenal piece on Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey for the first time in its entirety today.  If you’re a diehard, it’s a must-read.

The highlighted above was a quote I found interesting, if not rather surprising.  Up to this point, I had assumed that given their current position, Rockets management felt that it could be picky.  The team, the youngest in the league, is within arm’s length of homecourt, has a solid core, and a clean financial slate.  Why wouldn’t they take their time and wait for the perfect guy?

Then again, the article is from December 3 when the Rockets sat at 6-7.  Morey, while no doubt pleased that he had gotten Harden, probably didn’t realize how good his team could be already, as currently constructed.  Perhaps his thinking has changed?

Here’s my question: You know where the team stands.  You know the realities of the NBA.  Should the Rockets be picky?

Let’s say that on a scale of 1-10, in assessing desirability, Kevin Love is a 10 and someone like say, I don’t know, Clarence Weatherspoon the year he started for the Rockets is a 0, how high must a player rank for the team to blow through its load of assets/cap in an acquisition?

Let’s say it took multiple assets to acquire DeMarcus Cousins, and let’s assume we gave him a ’5′ just due to the risk factor, do you do it?

What about Josh Smith?  His warts are well documented.  Maybe he’s a ’6′.  Do you blow your cap space on him this summer?  Millsap?

Understand that if you sign someone unideal this summer–Smith, Millsap–that’s pretty much it.  That’s your team.

Instead, do you just keep this current core and make small incremental improvements–such as adding the Patrick Beverley’s of the world–while the team grows internally?  That gives you a chance in 2014 to really hit a grand slam.  At the same time, if a pipedream doesn’t happen, your opportunity cost was the success you sacrificed in not pulling the trigger now for someone who isn’t as ideal.

What would you do?

The post Can the Rockets afford to be picky? appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

Lin is averaging, so far, 10.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 2.2 steals, per game.  Those numbers are coming at 34.3 minutes per game.  He’s shooting 34% from the field and 26% from deep.

Goran Dragic, on the other hand, per game, is averaging 16.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 2.0 steals.  He’s shooting 47% overall and 34% from downtown.

The numbers that really matter above are the shooting percentages.

How much is Lin’s injury still bothering him?  One could argue that the weak leg is what’s keeping those accuracies down but at the same time, one of his biggest weaknesses last year was a balky jumper.

You could get much more contextual with the numbers to blow this thing open (ie: digging deeper for situational comparisons in line with each player’s offensive usage), but we’ll keep this simple, for now.

Did the Rockets pick the wrong guy?  Using the eye test, the argument can certainly be made.

I think at the time, when the decision went down, they probably made the right call going with the younger Lin.  He was better as the initial creator and #1 option and that was the role they expected him to fill.  But post-Beard, everything’s changed.

If the Rockets knew they were going to get Harden, I think they would have re-upped with Gogi.  He showed success as a 2-guard (playing next to Lowry) and is the far superior shooter – that’s important when playing next to the ball dominating Harden.  Goran’s also the peskier defender.

I can’t blame them for the decision they made at the time, but if they could do it over again, knowing what else was soon to transpire, I think the Rockets would have stayed with the Slovenian.  What do you think?

The post Goran Dragic vs. Jeremy Lin: Did the Houston Rockets pick the wrong guy? appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

For now, my interest is the early predictions, from the few things we know.

What we know:

• Kevin Martin will be on the team and will have a role.
• The starting lineup will be Lin, Martin, Parsons, Asik, and Patterson.
• There is no “veteran presence” on this team, in the usual meaning of that phrase.  Kevin Martin is an older player but not a mentor figure.
• There is no continuity.  This team is starting from scratch.  No chemistry is being carried over from last season.
• The coach is relatively new.

What we think we know:

• Jeremy Lamb and Terrence Jones seem to be the real deal.  At the least, they will be in the rotation.
• Jeremy Lin will have the ball in his hands.
• Royce White will be at a disadvantage.
• Omer Asik is, at the very least, a competent starting center.  He will anchor the defense.

What we need to find out:

• Has Marcus Morris improved?  Those who actually were able to watch the game the other night reported improvement.  This team essentially has 5 rookies.
• How long will it take Motiejunas to adjust?  Recall that Luis Scola struggled for much of his rookie season before adapting to the NBA game.  If Motiejunas does not produce early, that does not mean he is a bust.
• Will Royce White even crack the rotation?  Right now, he’s projected to be a ’4′, a position also filled by Marcus Morris and Terrence Jones, in addition to Patterson and Motiejunas.  I fear White might not ever catch up and be the odd man out.
• Will Patrick Patterson bounce back?  He was putrid offensively last season.  If he can’t regain his rookie form, he will be ousted from the starting lineup.
• How will the team look defensively?  In Parsons and Asik, they have two elite defenders in their starting lineup.  Patterson is, at the least, very good (though I’d contest he’s elite as a help defender.).  Martin is bad.  And it can go either way on Lin, depending on your perspective.  Most importantly, there is no chemistry, and the biggest determinant in defensive prowess is team communication and cohesion.

So what do you think?  Right now, I think they can win anywhere from 30-35 games.  They have too much talent to be horrible but I don’t see this team being good.  Still, we’re only one game in.

The post How many games will the Houston Rockets win this season? appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

For example: had the Rockets made the playoffs last season, that would not have necessarily been an indicator of success.  They were heavily relying on veterans (Scola, Dalembert, Camby) who didn’t fit into the grand scheme of things.  It wasn’t value that carried over and helped the team’s trajectory.

This year, things are different.  There is not a single veteran of consequence on the roster (aside from Delfino, depending on his role), a fact which brings a smile to my face.  The team has the best of both worlds, regardless of outcome.  If they’re bad, they’ll get a high lottery pick.  But if they’re good, unlike in past years, it’s actually a good thing!  For the first time, winning won’t contribute to the franchise’s state of stagnation because it will mean the young players were actually good!  It won’t be a case of Kevin Martin and Scola filling it up with nothing to show for the next year.

So what would have to happen for you to call this year a success?  As aforementioned, obviously making the playoffs would fit that rubric because it would mean that a good number of the young players exploded.

What if all four of the rookies (that phrase will never get old) struggle (or are even terrible) but the team lands the #1 pick?  You could argue that would be a success.  (Though it would be a very disturbing reflection upon the scouting department.)

What if Lin is terrible?  What if Lin explodes but everyone else is terrible?  What if Asik becomes Gortat 2.0?  There are many combinations.

Let’s make this easier.  How many of these five players (Marcus Morris, Terrence Jones, D-Mo, Royce White, and Jeremy Lamb) would need to have a good year for you to be happy?  That’s a tough question.  I’d say two.

What do you hope happens?  That’s also tough because it can go a number of ways.  I think the dream scenario would involve making the postseason (meaning a good number of the young players exploded), Toronto netting a top pick, and then signing Bynum or Harden in the offseason.  One can dream can’t they?

I’m curious to hear your take.

Comment on the story.

The post Houston Rockets 2012-2013: What would make this year a success? appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The Rockets looked absolutely masterful in that fourth quarter with the two point guards playing in tandem.  I’m becoming convinced that the lineups which see Dragic and Lowry sharing the backcourt are the team’s best.  They were relentless defensively and a blur on the break.

One particular play stood out, lending towards an idea: Jamal Crawford danced, spun, drove into the lane, only to have the ball stripped by Lowry, leading to a fastbreak.  While Crawford isn’t particularly large, he is regarded as one of the game’s shiftiest players.  All along, in the panic to keep Dragic, the popular sentiment among many has been to move him to the ‘2’, next season.  The idea made more sense, in theory, than the proposition of playing Lowry at the ‘2’, due to the players’ respective heights.  But is that the proper way to think about the matter?

Offense isn’t an issue – they can be interchangeable and sort things out.  Lowry can’t guard point guards (see Parker, Paul, Westbrook destructions of Lowry earlier this year) and Goran can.  We’ve asked whether Dragic could guard shooting guards.  It’s time to ask whether Lowry can, full-time.

I point to former Rocket David Wesley as a historical archetype who at barely 6’0 and a similar build as Lowry, was regarded as one of the game’s best defensive shooting guards.  With the Hornets, Wesley was that team’s most effective defender against 6’9 Magic forward Tracy McGrady, using his low center of gravity to bother him in the blocks.  I also point to Derek Fisher who, while with the Jazz, gave McGrady fits on the defensive end, similarly using his bulk to his advantage.

The 7 offensive rebounds are alarming, but might have been resultant of poor boxouts from the frontcourt rather than some effect of an undersized backcourt.  We’ll need to dig deeper when we have more data at season’s end, on this, and on the overall production of the Lowry-Dragic combo when sharing the court.  For now, perhaps there is hope to retain both.  Can Lowry guard shooting guards over the course of an 82 game season?

A final note: Patrick Patterson was instrumental in helping the team pull away by frustrating Lamarcus Aldridge inside.  It was good to see him do well after a difficult stretch in March.

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Last night, Nate Robinson tackled Goran Dragic to the floor.  Two nights before, Luis Scola was laid out twice by different Lakers in the span of mere minutes, first by an elbow from Pau Gasol, then from a full on body-check by Matt Barnes.  The common thread among all three plays?  As has been the case all year, and since Artest, McGrady, and Alston all checked out, no Rockets came to their teammates’ defense.

I’ve discussed this topic previously in many posts, most recently after the ‘Love stomp.’  I know I might be in the minority, but this is something that really bothers me.  As I explained before, I’m not advocating retaliation; I just ask that someone stand up and get in someone’s face.  Let it be known that such thuggery won’t be tolerated against one’s team.

It continues to baffle me.  One staple of every dirty play shown around the league is that almost always, it’s followed up by some form of altercation.  Not punches or even shoves.  At the least, just verbal confrontation.  It floors me when I see a Rocket fly to the floor, and without fail, watch four Rockets rush in to help him up without even giving thought to challenge the offender.

Maybe I’m off.  Most of you don’t seem to be too bothered by this.  The Rockets are a good, winning team.  They play hard.  They usually rise to the challenge and play harder after these incidents.  Maybe that’s enough.  Is there a correlation between the lack of an enforcer and an increase of offenses against one’s team?  I always thought–from the NBA I know–that a team needed a psychological edge; a team couldn’t allow itself to be walked on.  But that’s more conventional wisdom than proven data.

What do you all think?  Is this lack of a response by the Rockets on these dirty plays problematic?  I’m curious to hear your thoughts.

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Morey believed that Melo was a worthy star last season.  The conventional wisdom, based upon results, now, is that Melo is not a star.  But I’m not sure Morey would buy into that wisdom when Melo is essentially the exact same player.  He wouldn’t assess an item just based on results; he’d think that environment and surrounding circumstances played a significant determining role.  Morey wouldn’t do a complete 180 in his assessment on Melo just based on the Knicks’ struggles; he wouldn’t buy into the notion that the Knicks’ record validated the claims of Melo’s flaws.  If Morey were to change his assessment of a player, it would be due to some change intrinsic to the player himself.

This would be a classic ‘buy-low’ situation.  Perhaps Daryl feels that he could surround Melo with the right players, with the right coach, and turn things back on track.

Melo is also part of the ‘in-crowd’ and that in itself might hold sufficient value – maybe another star could finally be lured via free agency with Melo already in tow.

Of course, I’m playing devil’s advocate and I hope it doesn’t happen.  Carmelo Anthony is possibly my least favorite player in all of basketball.  It would be difficult to cheer for him.  But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Morey pull the trigger.

The post Would Daryl Morey trade for Carmelo Anthony? appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

Last night the news broke that point guard Kyle Lowry will remain sidelined for up to a month.  In the meantime, the Rockets continued their losing ways.  The circumstances beg the question: now what?

You almost have to think the news on Lowry throws a wrench into the Rockets’ plans: even if another team were willing to waive a physical on Lowry, it would be a public relations disaster to trade an ailing player currently laying in a hospital bed.  In my opinion.  Maybe I’m wrong and it wouldn’t be a big deal.

The other issue is the season itself.  They’ll be without their best player, yet are insistent upon competing.  At this point, it wouldn’t make sense to tank anyways.  But they can’t possibly expect to win games with Jonny Flynn playing significant minutes.

I’m really at a loss for words.  If they finish 9th or 10th yet again, this season will have been a complete waste of time.

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*Gasol/Randolph

*Amare/Chandler

*Dirk/whoever they end up getting

*Dwight/whoever

Rank these combos!  Go!

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McHale has the reputation of developing bigs. But I don’t think Thabeet is mean (or crazy) enough to be a real contributor to any team. In this league people talk about toughness, which is just code for borderline cheap tricks and a willingness to bang bodies. Chandler looked like he was about to fight half of the Thunder’s bigs on every play. I think Thabeet wilts under the pressure of playoff veterans playing him “tough.”

A reader, Jeby, replied:

Thabeet may not be “mean” by nature, but “meanness” can be learned. I live about ten miles from where Kevin Garnett grew up in SC. People tell stories around here about how players would go out of their way to agitate him on the court in high school, but he was too polite to react.

After enough scouts told him he needed to change, he developed a Jekyll/Hyde complex for when he stepped on the court.

You can learn meanness, you can learn offensive/defensive sets, and you can learn to make smart basketball decisions.

You can’t learn 7’3.” You also can’t teach a [i]desire to improve. As long as Thabeet displays those two qualities on his own (he’s got the first pretty much nailed down), I think he’s salvageable.

This is interesting because since the start of the Francis era, personality reformation is a concept to which I’ve given great thought.  Can basketball personality traits be developed/changed with time?

We wondered if Steve Francis would ever gain composure and maturity with age.  It never happened but it’s not something out of the ordinary for guards.  It happened for Cuttino Mobley.

But what about big men?  Since Yao Ming was drafted, I’ve wondered if it was possible for big men to develop desire or a mean streak.  It never happened for the late Eddie Griffin or Stromile Swift. Now, we find ourselves in a similar situation with Jordan Hill and Hasheem Thabeet on the roster.  We place hopes upon them suddenly getting “it” and developing desire or a mean streak. But I ask – has it ever happened?  Guys learn to calm down or play smarter.  But are there examples of big men in NBA history who came in with little desire or toughness and later accrued it?

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This series of questions is for the purpose of determining the team’s short-term prospects.  I now ask you:

1. Is the superstar theory axiomatic? (ie: is a true superstar required to win?): Looking at the standings, you then have the Lakers, Mavs, Thunder, Hornets, Clippers (Griffin), and perhaps even the Kings (Cousins) who should all stand a better chance than this team in the near future.
2. Which teams in the West have staying power?  The Lakers have a good two years left.  Who knows with the Spurs.  Dallas always seems to reload, but who knows with Kidd’s age.  The Thunder and Grizzlies aren’t going anywhere while the Hornets, Grizzlies, Blazers, and Nuggets would all seem to be at Houston’s level.

Can this Rockets team conceivably compete with the Thunder and Lakers over the next two years?

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Among other potential targets, if the Clips got cheap with DeAndre (with the thinking they can’t commit more big money to the center spot with Kaman around), would you throw big bucks there based on potential?  How about Greg Oden?  Huge upside there but equally high risk.  (What people tend to forget is that when healthy, Oden has been scary productive per-minute – this is not a bust in the sense of anything other than injuries.)

The one name on the list that really jumps out is Yao Ming.  While I’ve never seen him play, I had read about him on the internet in 2007.  He can score from either block but allegedly carries injury risks.  Might be worth a flier at the right cost.

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That being said, I was hoping to open the floor to you all regarding the use of statistics – both in the NBA in general and here at Red94.    Clearly there are several different uses for statistics.  Coaches, scouts, and management (and sometimes players) use statistics (at varying levels of sophistication..) to gain any advantage possible, whether it’s on the court or through player transactions.

From the fan’s perspective, the level of statistical depth depends on both the will and sophistication of the observer.   While it’s fun to play “armchair GM” (and I’ll be the first to do it), there comes the sobering reality that whatever conclusions you draw, the actual decision-makers will always be more informed with better information.   So, to the observer whose career does not depend on the accuracy of his conclusions, given limited data and resources, isn’t it almost futile to compete?  Gone are the days of any advantage being drawn from the antiquated box score – even advanced derived metrics like PER.

My question is, what is the biggest reason you all are interested in basketball statistics?  Is it more out of passive interest, the urge to play “armchair GM”,  or to just better understand the game? (or something else?)  Genuine responses are appreciated – I’ll try to cater future posts to your interests.

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In today’s Chronicle, Rick Adelman hailed Patrick Patterson as the team’s best frontcourt help defender.  For an organization as meticulous as the Rockets, they certainly cannot be too pleased with Hill’s lapses.

What are your thoughts on the future of this duo?  Patterson seems like a “Rocket”, in the mold of Battier and Hayes, cerebral and hard-working though unspectacular.  Hill has come a long way but has even further to go leading one to wonder when the front office will lose patience.  Will the Rockets hang on to both and let them develop or will one be shipped to clear the log jam?

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He is a 6’4 small forward, though he often plays shooting guard.  We have Courtney Lee and Kevin Martin ahead of him in the depth chart, and there really is little chance of him breaking into meaningful minutes with our current roster, barring unforeseen injuries.  Is his increase in usage lately a sign that he will be a part of the Rockets’ future or a sign that we are trying to shop him?

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Other than a desire to mercilessly throw to the forefront the question we’ve all been willfully avoiding in our minds, I ask because, in reviewing the responses to my previous query, I realized we don’t even have a starting point for discussion.  How do you even determine what to do when there’s little consensus on the team’s position?

So essentially, I’m asking, is the draft pick off limits?  Or at 5-12, can the team still come back from the dead?  (Obviously, this gives rise to other questions, chiefly, would that even be a desirable outcome, but we’ll ignore that for now.)

So have at it.

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