1. How does OKC adjust to Westbrook’s absence?

Pina: The Thunder will run more of their offense through Kevin Durant, which has the potential to be enormously positive as long as he’s physically up for it.

Dover: It’s difficult to predict exactly how OKC will come out without Westbrook because they’ve literally never been without him before. Durant will be called on to do a lot more, both in terms of ball-handling and scoring. Westbrook did a lot of assisting but there still wasn’t much ball movement in the system. That’s going to have to change if they’re going to compensate for his loss.

Eby: The simplest answer is more touches for Durant. When Fisher is on the floor, I would expect to see Durant try to run the offense through the post, with shooters cutting around him. However, we might see Reggie Jackson try to step into the role of poor man’s Westbrook, partly because the team will need him to in order for the Thunder to make a run past the first round. But that’s a tough act.

2. How could OKC exploit Houston’s three-guard lineup experiment?

Pina: The most obvious answer is on the glass, where Serge Ibaka and Kevin Durant should go above their rebounding averages if Kendrick Perkins/Nick Collison can tangle with Omer Asik.

Dover: Because Parsons needs to cover Durant, when the Rockets go small they are forced to put Harden on Ibaka. Ibaka doesn’t have much of a post game, which negates the primary method you would use to attack such a matchup, but several times in the last game he was able to easily out-rebound the Beard for a putback. OKC are blessed with a multitude of good three point shooters, so they should be able to disperse Houston’s 2-3 zone a bit better now they’ve had a good look at it.

Eby: By trying some lineups with Ibaka at center, and with Sefolosha and K-Mart sharing the court. This gives OKC the speed to keep up on defense, and forces Asik out of the paint to guard Ibaka.

3. Should the Thunder be worried about Houston’s below average shooting from behind the arc returning to average?

Pina: The Rockets went 10-for-35 from behind the arc in Game 2. Delfino made only three of 10 attempts and Harden made one of seven. Those are borderline anomalies that should correct themselves, but the Rockets also need to do a better job finishing at the rim if they want to outscore the Thunder for 48 minutes.

Dover: The Rockets shot 10-35 in Game 2, based on regular season percentages they would average 13-35, which would have been enough to have won Game 2. There’s a case for saying that you’d expect playoff percentages to be lower due to more attentive defense, but if you look at the three point attempts the Rockets generated in that game it’s not like there was a hand in their face for most of them. Figuring out how to effectively defend against the Rockets’ floor-spreading ways will probably have been near the top of the list for Scott Brooks and his coaching staff in the run up to Game 3.

Eby: Yes. When a team misses 25 (!) three-point shots against you, still scores 101 points and only loses by three points in your building, something is not right with your defense. Honestly, the cracks were visible even in the game 1 blowout–in most statistical categories, the teams came out almost the same, but OKC shot 41.7 percent from the arc while Houston shot 22.2 percent. And now Westbrook’s talent can’t save them if shooting hands go cold.

The post Game 3 Preview: 3-on-3 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

• How are the Rockets’ spirits?  You could say Wednesday’s game was encouraging in that, while the team hit below it’s average from deep, they still were in position to win.  I, on the other hand, feel deflated.  The Rockets, after going on a miraculous 20-2 (or whatever it was) run, still were unable to pull it out.  But at the same time, you could also just as easily say the team shot well below its average and still was in position to win.  Let’s look at the probability of recurrence for each of the critical factors: 1) Harden poor shooting – unfortunately, I think this is the norm.  His legs are completely gone and thus, he’s been missing his shots short for some time now.  (I also think that ankle might still be bothering him.)  His problems finishing at the rim are also likely to continue considering that Serge Ibaka is still alive.  (Again, the ankle isn’t helping matters.)  Harden will get 30 and go to the line, but a good shooting night in this series would be a deviance from the norm.  2) Omer Asik’s production will remain steady.  3) Lin, too, I think, will also continue struggling as he just doesn’t have the tools or confidence right now.  Let’s just hope he’s healthy because, despite his flaws, his ability to push the tempo is a weapon.  And any weapon when this undermanned is critical.  4) Beverley – that scoring might go down as the Thunder will have had an opportunity to scout his tendencies.  But the rebounding and defense is all heart and isn’t going anywhere.  5) Russell being Russell – that’ll keep happening and is Houston’s only chance to win.  6) The Thunder completely falling apart when pitted against a 2-3 zone – this will never happen again.  The Thunder will have had ample time to analyze what took place in that breakdown.  7) Delfino – I thought to myself, after the game, “just one more Delfino ’3′ and this is a different game.”  And you typically do expect him to go nuts from downtown on nights he plays big minutes.  So you felt it was an off-night.  But is 3-10 really that great a deviance from the norm when he’s like a, what, 35% career shooter?  I think Delfino is the greatest indicator of a victory.  If he gets hot, the team wins, primarily because his percentages are indicative of more significant variables i.e. ball movement, poor rotations from the other team.
• The big positive is that this team has ‘fight.’  When they went down by 15, I thought it was over.  Most people did.  They somehow came back.  Is it that great a surprise, though?  Harden and Asik are both playoff-tested veterans.  Parsons has certain qualities.  And we know Beverley will go down throwing punches.  They didn’t exactly have Matt Maloney out there soiling himself against a John Stockton 4th quarter comeback.  Like I said, it’s incredible how much you learn about your team in the playoffs.
• I feel the Rockets are at their best when Harden is moving off the catch, rather than initiating the play.  The Rockets started the game off like this and then went away from it later.  Ideally, you want to bring him curling off of screens with the ball handler hitting him after he crosses the screen, allowing him to make decisions in the middle of the floor.  I’d like to see more of that tomorrow night.

The post Previewing Game 3 and some other notes appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

1. How does Houston respond to the blowout–fighting or sulking?

Pina: Houston won’t be shocked by the moment in Game 2 as they were in Game 1. The Thunder crashed into them with an initial wave, and by halftime it was basically over. In Game 2 they certainly won’t back down or let their environment affect their play. But they’ll probably still lose.

Walker: It’s extremely hard to blow the same team out twice in a row. Not only are all NBA coaching staffs able to make adjustments between games, but the emotional state of a blown-out team is seldom sulking. A heartbreaking close loss? That might inspire some self-pity. But being destroyed on the court is more like a cold dip into icy waters. Harden and his team are likely to be mad, and mad at both teams. This season’s Rockets don’t give up without a fight, but that doesn’t mean the fight guarantees a win.

Eby: It will be a fight. Partly because Harden, Lin, Parsons, Asik and Beverly still play every game like they have something to prove, Delfino is the consummate pro, and Terrence Jones is dying to make a name for himself. Partly because expectations for this team were so low that a blowout loss doesn’t create the same strife as it would for a higher-caliber team.

2. How does OKC respond to the blowout–coasting or dominating?

The post Game 2 Preview: 3-on-3 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

What’s at stake and what do we hope to see?

To begin, only one, maybe two individuals involved with the Houston Rockets organization have anything at stake in this series.  The team, in even making the playoffs this year, overachieved beyond anyone’s wildest expectations.  Even if they lose 4-0 by an average of 20 points per game, perception will not change.  They are on the rise and ahead of schedule.  Daryl Morey, regardless of the outcome, should unanimously claim Executive of the Year honors for his job in assembling this team.  While he won’t win the award, Kevin McHale should at least be mentioned in the discussion for Coach of the Year for the job he did in getting this young group to buy into the system and come together.

Greg Smith, Terrence Jones, and Donatas Motiejunas have nothing at stake.  No one is expecting any of the three to provide anything.  Patrick Beverley also has nothing at stake – because he played such a huge role on this team, we quickly forget that he too is a rookie.  Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik, and Carlos Delfino also have nothing at stake.  No one will think any less of them if they lay eggs.

While it shouldn’t be the case, there’s a chance the perception of Lin could change after this series.  Recall that this is really the first time he’ll be back on the national scene after leaving New York and the spotlight of Linsanity.  Many [bitter New Yorkers] felt that he was not worth the contract he signed – he’ll certainly be under the microscope.  If Lin is completely outclassed by Russell Westbrook, those critics will feel justified in their stance.

James Harden is really the only Rocket who without a doubt has something on the line.  Did the Thunder make a mistake?  So far, they haven’t missed a beat but that question will only be answered in the postseason.  If he can even put a scare into Oklahoma City, he will cement himself as one of the game’s best players.  (ESPN ranked him 7th in the league, behind Westbrook.)

What are we looking for?  I’m not quite sure some realize just how greatly the odds are against this Rockets team.  In the sole win against the Thunder, the Rockets needed everything to go right, overcoming a 12 point deficit in the second half of the 4th quarter just to eke out a 3 point win.  Those aren’t circumstances with high odds for duplication.  In the two losses, the Rockets were blown out.

There’s really nothing I’m looking for.  I won’t even be upset if the team runs ISOball if there’s a close game – that adjustment can only come after a full training camp.  All I hope is that they learn from this experience.  I hope that Parsons and Lin, and the rookie forwards too, learn what it takes to compete in the playoffs.  I hope Harden sees how much he needs to improve now that he is the focal point of his team.  And I hope McHale learns what does and doesn’t work about our system and scheme.  We won’t know if any of these desires come to fruition until next season.  For now, we can just sit back and enjoy.

The post What is at stake for the Houston Rockets? appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

In my mind, there are only a few ways this series can play out.  If Houston wins game 1, either Houston or Oklahoma City will win in 7.  If Oklahoma City wins game 1, Houston’s only chance at winning a game in the series is in Game 3, and the Thunder will win the series in either 4 or 5 games.  Thus, there is only one scenario by which Houston can win this series.  Note that this analysis was in no way based on any relevant mathematical data and was largely pulled out of my ass and thought up in the shower this morning.

This is basically the football equivalent of ’3rd and long.’  For those of you unfamiliar with football, ’3rd and long’ is a scenario which, when the Houston Texans are on 3rd down and in need of over 20 yards to reach the 1st down marker, essentially calls for Matt Schaub to hand the ball off to his running back  for a gain of like five inches.  The team then punts the ball on the next possession.  This is a set of events which should be avoided in all aspects of life.

When the odds are stacked against you, to succeed, you can’t play it safe.  You must introduce chaos and random variables to improve your chances at winning.  In example, Oklahoma City, by any evaluative measure, is a far, far, far better team than the Houston Rockets.  If the two teams were to play 10 times, with no variables (ie: playing the same way they played in the regular season) the probability would hold that the Thunder would win a majority, based on the historical data available (ie: everything that just happened over the last 82 games).  Thus, the logic would bear that the Rockets, to increase their odds at winning, would increase variables to escape the set probability.  Again, doing what’s expected has already proven to be inferior and will bear out a predictable outcome.  (Through this, we can also hereby conclude that because this is what the logic holds, Kevin McHale will do the complete opposite.  I kid, I kid.  I won’t go there for today.)

How can the Rockets introduce variables?  Well, for one, they can shoot more 3′s.  By intrinsic nature, an inordinate volume of 3′s always give the inferior opponent a greater chance against his counterpart just due to the greater expected value of each shot, in comparison to 2 pointers.  But this is obvious – they’ll probably do this.  What else can they do?

1. They can gamble for more steals.  If they play it safe, and play their game, they can’t beat the Thunder.  The Thunder on their game are a better team than the Rockets on their game.
2. They can full-court press: If I were Houston, I would manufacture the minutes to where every one of Beverley’s minutes is against Westbrook, and then I would have Beverley trap Westbrook fullcourt the entire time.  I don’t expect this to happen.
3. I would only bench Lin when Westbrook is on the court (ie: if Westbrook is on the bench, Lin should never be on the bench.)  This has the effect of, aside from pitting Beverley’s minutes against Westbrook’s, giving Lin as many repetitions against inferior defenders.  Lin’s opportunities must be maximized.  This too is something I have no expectation of the coaching staff doing.

Jeremy Lin, as the only player other than Harden on this team who can create his own shot, is the key to the Rockets’ chances.  Asik and Parsons will likely give you what you are expecting.  Harden will probably average 30 and could be efficient but may also not be.  The rookies and Greg Smith, aside from an emotional Game 3, will most likely provide very little.  Delfino and Garcia I think will explode in at least one of the home games.  There will be ISOs in close games.  And there will be tons and tons of smallball, particularly because a) the Thunder do not have a lowpost scorer and b) as aforementioned, it is highly likely that the rookies will provide nothing.  (In fact, as I type this, I’d almost consider ditching everything and starting Delfino at power forward with Garcia as his backup and just tossing aside the rookies altogether.  That adds more chaos.)

In any event, we forget that in the one game in which the Rockets beat the Thunder, while Harden had 46, Lin had 29.  In fact, when Lin plays well, the Rockets almost always win.  If the Rockets are going to even have any chance in hell of winning this series, there will almost have to be sustained spurts of Linsanity.  He will have to be given freedom to operate.  However, aside from what we saw in the regular season, there is close to no chance of said freedom being given, simply due to the fact that, while logic may dictate otherwise during underdog settings, coaches tend to become even more conservative in the postseason. (More on this below).  In essence, they need to get Lin going but I don’t expect it to happen.

The upside to this is that Beverley, a great defender, will get plenty of time against Westbrook.  Of course, this ignores the fact that Lin, against conventional wisdom, is actually a more than capable defender, having forced Westbrook into 41% shooting and almost 5 turnovers per game in their head to head meetings.

Explanation: As explained, the logic holds that the best chance at winning would be to avoid the norms and go off cue.  But conversely, coaches typically do the opposite and become even more conservative.  This is largely due to the overconfidence bias whereby the actor holds an irrational belief in his abilities.  Coaches think that to win, they have to play the perfect game, and by extension, they think that there is a greater chance of their team playing the perfect game than winning by changing everything up.

Case in point: the Indiana game at Toyota Center.  Harden was completely bottled up by Paul George, the offense was stagnant, and the team was down but not out.  Instead of bringing in Lin, the only other player that can create a shot, McHale stuck with Beverley and continued feeding Harden.  His rationale was likely that “we have a better chance of doing a good job of what we do than succeeding by doing something different.”  I disagree with this thinking, but I digress as we’ve already beaten this point to death.

I actually give the Rockets a 50% chance to win Game 1.  We’ll see what happens after that, but I think the Thunder will come out sleeping and Harden will come out absolutely pissed.  If that’s enough to sustain the team for 48 minutes will be up to how the other factors bear out.

The post Previewing Rockets/Thunder: The Chaos Principle and ’3rd and long’ appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers on 4/17/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The regular season is nearing its end, and so the Rockets travel to the desert for a game that could guarantee them the 6th seed. The equation: win tonight and if the Warriors lose one of their last two games (vs San Antonio and @ Portland) then they’re locked into their spot. While there is a school of thought that says they would be more likely to advance against a banged-up Spurs team, the Nuggets (who only need to win one more game to guarantee the third seed) have their own injury problems and that match-up is likely to be ridiculously entertaining. The Rockets management has given no indication they’d prefer to strategically lose, so I can’t imagine we’ll see anything other than 100% from the team tonight.

That said, it is the second night of a back-to-back, a scenario in which the Rockets have been poor this year (6-14 record in games where they’ve played the night before). Fortunately, their romp against Sacramento was comprehensive enough that the starters could be rested in the 4th quarter, so they should hopefully have something left in the tank.

Their opponents this evening are in full-on tank mode at the moment. The Suns have had nothing to play for for some time – historically an unusual feeling out in Phoenix – and now have an eye on getting lucky with the lottery. Since they beat Houston on the 9th of March, they’ve gone 2-15. In their defense, it should be noted that Marcin Gortat has been injured for the entirety of that stretch, and his absence leaves them with a gaping hole at centre. But despite his noises about returning, it seems likely given their current situation that he will be shut down for the rest of the season.

Key Questions:

- This is the second team in a row with several former Rockets on the roster. In the teams’ last meeting they played very well – can the Rockets limit them this time around? Particularly Scola, who’s wily post moves will make life difficult for whichever of the Rockets’ many PFs ends up with the majority of the minutes.

- Beasley is one of those players who is usually terrible but every once in a while can take over a game. Will we see disinterested, pull-up-for-bad-jumpers Beasley, or dangerous, attacking-the-rim and making-baskets Beasley? These days it’s usually the former, but if the latter shows up, watch out?

- Will Lin and Harden have the energy to turn on the driving game? The Suns have a few competent defensive players in Dragic, Dudley and Tucker who could make it difficult to get that initial penetration, particularly on tired legs. But once that’s been surmounted the interior Suns defense is porous. O’Neal is experienced but his abilities are on the decline, and neither Morris twin is a particularly good help defender. If the Rockets’ guards can get past their men, they should profit.

- Who will be making their threes? As we know by now, the Rockets can struggle if the three ball isn’t falling. If a few players can make some outside shots, particularly if they’re at the 4, then it will make the game a lot easier.

- Have the wings got back to fitness? We’ve seen that when healthy Parsons and Delfino help to turbo-charge the Rockets’ offense. However, both have been struggling with injuries lately and that has left a void at the wing positions. They need to get back to their midseason form for the Rockets to stand a chance of progressing in the playoffs, and that starts with working their way back to that level in games like tonight.

The post Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns on 4/15/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets on 4/14/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets on 4/12/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets on 4/6/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers on 4/5/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

You wouldn’t know it from looking at their position in the standings and their 27-47, but the Sacramento Kings are quietly having a late-season renaissance. As this Truehoop article points out, they have had the second best offense in the league since the trade-deadline, as the arrival of Patrick Patterson and his floor-spreading ways has coincided nicely with hot shooting streaks from Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Thornton to turbo-charge their game with the ball in hand. In years gone by the Kings have tried to give meaning to otherwise meaningless late season games by doing their best to trip up anyone fighting for playoff position who happened to cross their path, and it seems they’ll be looking to do the same this year having recently recorded good wins against the Bulls, Clippers and Warriors.

Sacramento hold the distinction of being one of the few teams in the league that Houston has not beaten so far this year, and they stick out like a sore thumb in the company of the other members of that group – Miami, Indiana and Denver. The Rockets have two games left against them to correct that and avenge their loss earlier in the season.  The goal of playoff qualification is inching ever closer, and with one eye the team must be looking to overhauling the Golden State Warriors for the number 6 spot in the West. Winning despite missing Harden in their past two games has been very helpful in that regard, but they are still a game back and need wins on nights like tonight to keep their challenge alive.

Lineups:

Missing Parsons and Harden didn’t slow the Rockets down too much against Sacramento, but tonight they’ll be facing a much more well-stocked front court and won’t be able to rely on the brute force of Greg Smith or the jumpers of Omer Asik (no, really) consistently. The good news is that the team’s two leading scorers are hoping to play, but both are game-time decisions as the bearded one recovers from an ankle injury and Parsons recovers from some Mexican-food-induced food poisoning.

If both of them do play, it will be interesting to see if McHale persists with using Greg Smith in the starting lineup or re-inserts Motiejunas at the Power Forward position.  Smith has played very well since taking on the starting gig and Motiejunas’ play of late has been less than inspiring, but on the other hand if Harden returns the extra space provided by D-Mo’s floor spacing might be more useful. It’s certainly the case that the team has looked more solid defensively when playing both Smith and Asik at the same time, but it does have the downside that the when the backups check in McHale has to pair Robinson and Motiejunas together, which doesn’t quite have the same solidity to it at this stage.

There’s also a battle going on for the remaining minutes on the wing between James Anderson and Francisco Garcia. Both have seen playing time in recent times due to a combination of injuries and Delfino’s current shooting funk. Anderson seemed to have the edge coming into this stretch, as he was the first to come into the lineup after Harden’s injury against the Grizzlies, but Garcia has done a lot to stake his claim. He’s hitting a high percentage from the field and has adapted to the offense nicely, while Anderson often tries to force things despite not possessing the dynamism of the man whose shoes he is trying to fill. The mini-contest between them is far from over – in a fully healthy squad it is likely that there will only be minutes for one of the two – but for now it’s worth considering what a luxury it is that two such solid players are on hand to fill in when two-thirds of the regular wing rotation goes down. The Rockets have been very fortunate with injuries this season, but Morey’s roster building has ensured that the cover is there when needed.

One more point on the Rockets – Terrence Jones is back with the Rockets after a thumb injury. He has looked excellent in his two games with the Vipers, but it remains to be seen whether he can push his way in front of either Robinson or Motiejunas to get some minutes in the rotation. On paper his three point range would make him a better fit in the offense than Robinson, but having not been with the team for long it’s unclear if he has been properly integrated back into the fold enough that McHale will trust him with some playing time. When there was a similar competition for minutes between Greg Smith and Cole Aldrich earlier in the season, McHale would only play one on any given night. Perhaps he will adopt a similar strategy here (although if D-Mo continues to rack up fouls at the rate he’s been going both might be needed).

The Kings are built around DeMarcus Cousins, one of the better examples of the ‘talented but troubled’ archetype in today’s NBA. Coach Keith Smart, who has at times been criticised for inconsistent lineup choices, seems to have settled on a nine-man group for the past few games. He’ll put diminutive point guard Isaiah Thomas and the once-hyped Tyreke Evans together in the backcourt for the opening tip, filling in the starting lineup with John Salmons (veteran wing) and Jason Thompson (little-known but solid forward). Look on the bench and you’ll see many familiar faces. There’s Patrick Patterson, bringing his calm professionalism and leadership to a locker room that needed it (and adding some welcome three point shooting from the 4). It will be interesting to see his first game against his old team – there will doubtless be some desire to do well against his former teammates. Old friend Chuck Hayes will bring his defense and high-post passing, and familiar face Toney Douglas has worked his way into the lineup as a backup point guard. But the remaining player off the bench for the Kings is probably the most dangerous – Marcus Thornton may be inconsistent but when he’s hot he can really punish you with his ability to score from anywhere on the court.

On Offense:

This part of the game is very much in flux depending on the status of Harden. If he’s around the Rockets will persist with the penetration-fuelled strategy that has served them so well all year. Without him, the team should switch to more of a passing game, with a lot of focus on the inside presences of Asik and Smith. The pair have exhibited some nicely effective inside games recently, and the Rockets will probably look to establish them early against Thompson and Cousins. Neither will be as easy to overwhelm as Tobias Harris was for Greg Smith on Monday, but at the same time they are at best average post defenders and should provide an interesting test for the big men’s budding post games. They will have to be careful when the subs check in though, because Patterson’s familiarity with their games will make things difficult and long-time Rockets followers will know just how difficult Chuck Hayes can make life in the post.

On the wings, both Anderson and Delfino are in the midst of poor shooting stretches they’ll be wanting to break out of. Delfino’s issues may be as a result of the lingering elbow injury that he has previously said will be with him until the end of the season. Anderson, on the other hand, has a tendency to drive into the teeth of the defense more than he perhaps should, and the resulting pull-ups are not conducive to shooting a high percentage. He has struggled from behind the arc too (1/8 in his last three games), which at some point will need to turn around if he wants to earn some more consistent minutes going forwards.

On Defense:

The Sacramento Kings have for several seasons been characterized as a team of unconscionable gunners with no interesting in passing the ball. While this is slowly improving, there is still a lot of injudicious shot selection going on. Cousins likes to shoot from the midrange, from where he is inconsistent (although recently he has been gravitating towards the hoop more), and both Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton have a tendency to look for their own shots slightly too much. However, Isaiah Thomas has been improving the balance in his game between the shot and the pass to good effect, and Patterson has helped create more room for the teams multitudinous drivers.

While Cousins has all of the tools to be a physically dominant centre, he has yet to employ them in a consistent fashion. Most of his offensive game can be summed up by a quick glance at his shot chart, which does not make for pretty viewing:

He doesn’t seem to be able to finish especially well around the basket despite his bulk, and Asik should be able to keep him quiet down low. He is, however, a surprisingly good passer if given the freedom to do so. You will often see him dumping off to back-cutting wings in plays that look like they could well be holdovers from back when Rick Adelman coached here all those years ago.

One of the keys to stopping the Kings’ offense is to find a way to slow down Isaiah Thomas. In wins this year he has shot 52%, but in losses he only connects on 42% of his shots. He’s had a couple of big games recently (including a 31 point, 7 assist night against the Warriors last week), and his speed makes him tough for bigger guards to chase. This is a match-up where I think Lin will struggle – in general I think he does a much better job against bigger guards that he can stay in front of than speedy ones who can sometimes exploit his so-so lateral quickness. Beverley, on the other hand, with his smaller build and aggressive quickness, would seem to be an ideal player to give this defensive assignment to. I wouldn’t be surprised if Beverley gets some minutes down the stretch if the game is close.

Tyreke Evans has improved his three point shot slightly this year, but it’s still an anemic 33%. He will look to drive where possible and should be played as such – were the standard starters around I would expect Parsons to take Evans and Harden to be cross-matched on the less-dynamic Salmons. Thornton plays very much like a worse version of Kobe when he takes to the court – it doesn’t matter where he is, he will shoot from anywhere out of any coverage, be it off the dribble or otherwise. He is capable of making more of those shots than you’d expect, it’s just that they’re still really low percentage.

When Patterson he will provide a slightly different look by stretching the defense out to the three point line. This has seemed to have a positive effect on Cousins’ play by moving him closer to the basket when they’re playing together, and its overall efficacy has been helped by Patterson being red hot from beyond the arc since the move (46.7%!). Motiejunas should be able to stay in front of him, but will have to be wary of Patterson occasionally putting the ball on the floor from the perimeter, as well as his favourite baseline 15-footer.

Summary:

This is a game that on paper should be an easy win for the Rockets. However, the Kings are a team playing with nothing to lose, and if Harden and Parsons are unable to play at full strength it won’t necessarily be a walk in the park. The key will be to contain the offense of Cousins and Thomas – if they are able to do that, the rest should take care of itself.

The post Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings on 4/3/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Orlando Magic @ Houston Rockets on 4/1/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

Fortunately, there are a few advantages.  The Clippers also played last night, losing at San Antonio thanks to a Tim Duncan game-winner.  The Rockets should also be as well-rested as one can be for this game because Kevin McHale, whether out of frustration or waving the white flag, benched the Houston starting lineup for the entire 4^th quarter of yesterday’s game.   Yet while the Clippers have clinched a playoff spot and will almost certainly win the Pacific Division for the first time in their franchise’s not-quite-sterling history, the team is still competing with Memphis and the Denver Nuggets in a battle for the 3^rd through 5^th seeds, and thus do have something to play for tonight.

At this point, everyone more or less knows what the Clippers are about.  They are led by Chris Paul, the best point guard in the league despite an excellent season from Mr. Parker, and my pick for MVP earlier this season before LeBron did a LeBron.  Paul has not exactly been shooting the ball well lately, averaging a sub .300 percentage from long range in March, but still knows the contours of the game as well as the ability to slow down and change pace whenever he needs to.  They of course have Griffin, who I believe has had so many people overrating him thanks to his dunks that he’s actually underrated – Griffin’s PER, after all, is just a smidgen behind Harden’s and the man has a developing post game for one who turned 24 two weeks ago.

Houston will need to contain Paul and also prevent the most athletic power forward in the league from utterly destroying Motiejunas, shortly after a game where Donatas, while effective on offense, simply had no change at stopping Zach Randolph or Marc Gasol.  The Rockets will need production from James Harden, who has struggled against elite perimeter defenders in Paul George and Tony Allen but will be going up against an easier backcourt of Willie Green and Jamaal Crawford.  And the Rockets will also need their bench to match one of the best in the league, as Grant Hill continues to putter along, Lamar Odom has reached a level which while nowhere close to his Sixth Man of the Year performance in 2011, is far better than his disastrous stint in Dallas in 2012, and Jamaal Crawford is a legitimate candidate to win that very award.

In short, Houston is going to need a lot of things to go right for tonight’s game and for “Hell Week” to end on a high and successful note.  But when one is facing a team that still has a legitimate shot for a championship, that is just how it is.

Update at 6 pm: Harden out due to a foot injury per Jason Friedman.  James Anderson starting in place .  Well, this will be interesting.

The post Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets on 3/30/2013, 7:00pm CST. appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Houston Rockets @ Memphis Grizzlies on 3/29/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets on 3/27/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets on 3/22/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets on 3/20/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

Gone is the warm fuzzy glow that accompanied the Warriors in the early part of the season. Back in those days (the grind of the regular season has meant they are fast fading from the memory), their better-than-expected play catapulted them comfortably into the playoff places and earned them a lot of column inches as early season surprises. But somewhere along the line, probably about the time the Rockets delivered a historic beatdown on them in the two teams’ first meeting, the story began to fall off the rails. Unable to keep up the improved defensive effort they started the season with, the team has collapsed from 30-17 to 37-30 and now has to keep one eye on the battle for the 8th seed behind them.

The Rockets have been struggling for consistency in recent weeks, with excellent wins sandwiching disappointing losses. The dichotomy between the two halves of Friday’s tilt with the Timberwolves illustrates that frustrating inconsistency best – you would be hard-pressed to find a worse half of basketball from them this season than the first half, but the potency of their attack in the second was an exhibition of how deadly they can be when everything clicks. A win here leapfrogs Houston over Golden State in the race for the  6th spot, a particularly coveted piece of standings real-estate given the way the tiers of power in the upper echelons of the conference break down. Given that, the entertaining mini-feud they had with the Warriors earlier in the year and a desire to make hay while the sun shines during the current seven game homestand, there should be no problem for the team getting the motivation together for tonight’s game.

Lineups:

McHale has been rolling with the same starting five since inserting Motiejunas into the starting lineup against Milwaukee, and at this point injuries seem like the only thing that will change that for the rest of the season.  But while the Lin/Harden/Parsons/D-Mo/Asik combo on the floor for the opening tip will be familiar, he has been tinkering with the bench rotation somewhat. In the past he has said that he prefers a rotation of 9 players, but the addition of Francisco Garcia to the squad has seen him make an exception to that rule. On Friday night, McHale for the first time I can remember this season started the second quarter with no starters on the court. We saw nearly 5 minutes of Beverley/Garcia/Delfino/Robinson/Smith, and they went +1 over that span with Delfino and Robinson doing most of the damage. The success of the bench mob depends quite heavily on whether Delfino has his shooting stroke – without it they are sadly lacking in offensive firepower. But if that group can forge a chemistry together it could prove quite useful down the stretch run. It will also allow McHale to evaluate who is deserving of minutes when the playoffs come around.

Golden State’s fall from grace seems to have coincided with Bogut’s return to the lineup. Before it happened, outside observers assumed that he could just slot in to the rotation taking over minutes from Festus Ezeli, but it hasn’t turned out that way – he’s not looked great offensively and hasn’t been able to recapture the defensive dominance that was a hallmark of his days in Milwaukee. He’ll start alongside Curry, Thompson, Barnes and Lee, a lineup bursting with offense but lacking in defensive tenacity. Off the bench, Coach Jackson can call on the services of 6th-man of the Year candidate Jarrett Jack, our old friend Carl Landry, grizzled veteran Richard Jefferson, the aforementioned Festus Ezeli and rookie Draymond Green.

I would be remiss not to share an anecdote regarding their Latvian centre Andris Biedrins. The Warriors are one of the few teams in the league I’ve seen live, and when I did there was a fan behind me who shouted “No! Not to him! He’s so bad!” every time the ball was passed to Andris Biedrins. That’s pretty much him in a nutshell – he has a well-known phobia of free throws and it seems that has wrecked what was at one stage a promising career as he is now completely devoid of any offensive threat. As the season has gone on Jackson has shown less and less faith in him to the extent that he only saw three minutes of garbage time on Friday against the Bulls.

On Offense:

The second half against the Timberwolves was the archetypal Rockets offense. The team feasted off the havoc caused by repeated drives from Harden and Lin, reaping layups, free-throws, and three pointers off kick outs. This is an attack that Golden State are particularly susceptible to. First of all, they do not have a reliable perimeter defender who can keep opposing guards and wings in front of him (although I seem to recall Harrison Barnes playing some pretty good defense on Harden in one of the teams’ previous meetings. Secondly, their favoured defensive strategy seems to be to collapse quite heavily on penetration, perhaps because David Lee is not particularly good at bothering opposing guards if left to his own devices (or so says [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HX0Ezb-OPE]Kirk Goldsberry[/url], anyway). That means if the driving guards are capable of getting the ball back out to the perimeter in a timely manner, as both Lin and Harden can, then there should be plenty of wide-open three pointers available. The Warriors also rank near the bottom of the league (24th) in free-throws allowed per field-goal attempt,  so all signs point to a team that should be driven to death by the Rockets’ starting back-court.

The ability to stretch the floor should also be used liberally in this game. Another thing the the Warriors don’t really have is someone suited to guarding stretch-4s – both David Lee and Carl Landry are both more suited to hanging around in the paint. That should mean Motiejunas will be able to get open on the three point line a fair amount.

As I mentioned previously, Andrew Bogut has not looked himself this season on the defensive end. He’s been unable to shut down the paint in the manner to which we were accustomed to seeing him in Milwaukee, and a lot of that is to do with mobility. Perhaps it’s the lingering effects of his surgery or the effects that had on his fitness, but he doesn’t have the speed to be able to zip around the paint and challenge opposing players in a timely manner like he used to do. It might be worth using Asik in the pick-and-roll a bit to try to drag him out of position.

On Defense:

Golden State’s starting backcourt of Curry and Thompson is one of the most potent shooting tandems in the NBA. Curry requires constant attention and is very much a pick-your-poison type player. He’s very capable of barrages like his [url=http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400278573]Madison Square Garden explosion[/url] a few weeks ago, but he’s also good at passing out of the double team so it’s difficult to get the ball out of his hands. In the past some teams have tried aggressively doubling him in the pick and roll, but he does a good job of dropping back, sometimes retreating all the way to half court, and dragging the two defenders with him. When he finally passes out of the trap, the Warriors end up with a 4-on-3 situation and tend to make opponents pay. He’s also got pretty decent handles and underrated court vision, so Lin will have his hands full tonight.

The Warriors’ bench features two players in Jack and Landry who can make life hell for opposing defenses. Landry has one of the more refined post games in the league and will likely give Thomas Robinson’s raw defense a stiff examination. Jack is an excellent spark-plug off the bench and does a great job of setting up his team-mates, but he has been struggling of late – his assist numbers are down from 5.4 to  just 2.7 in his last 10 games, and he’s only shooting 35.9% from the floor. Given the inexperienced and offense-light bench mob the Rockets are running with, this will come as a relief to McHale and co., but Beverley will still need to be his aggressive and vigilant self to keep him in that slump.

Summary:

The Rockets match up really well with the Warriors, and should be able to exploit the flaws in their defensive schemes. They’ll need to do their best to limit Curry and the other Warriors shooters, but provided they can do that and avoid the opposing bench from lighting up the Rockets’ backups, they should be able to come away with a win.

The post Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets on 3/17/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets on 3/13/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns on 3/9/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors on 3/8/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks on 3/6/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

While Dallas is a below.500 team and currently five games behind Houston, they have defeated the Rockets in the two earlier contests.  The first game was at the very height of OJ Mayo’s incredible start to the season caused by an absolutely unsustainable shooting streak from long range.  Mayo knocked down 40 points compared to Harden’s 39 and created a host of overreactions as some wondered whether the Rockets pursued the wrong shooting guard.  The second was the fifth game of the seven-game losing streak in January, where James Harden submitted a dreadful 5-23 shooting night for 20 points and a 19-0 Dallas run in the 1^st quarter proved too much to overcome.

If there is anything which truly has to concern Houston tonight, it will be Dirk Nowitzki.  Dirk has begun to play closer to his old self after missing 27 games with knee surgery and has scored 20 or more points in 4 of his last 5 games on 53% shooting.  As the power forward rotation of Motiejunas, Robinson, and spot minutes from Delfino gave up 27 points to Tobias Harris on Friday night, one shudders to think of what Dirk will do to this frontcourt, especially since Omer Asik simply does not have the quickness to stay with Nowitzki and will be busy handling the offensively skilled Chris Kaman.  One might expect Chandler Parsons to play Nowitzki, but then that would leave Motiejunas and Robinson playing the still athletic Shawn Marion.

The team around Nowitzki is no slouch either on the offensive end.  While Mayo has cooled down significantly since his hot start to the season, he and starting point guard Darren Collison can put up points on a board if they are hot, which given the Houston defense is almost a guarantee that they will hit at least 3 Kobe-level jumpers each.  The Dallas bench with a reinvented Vince Carter, Elton Brand, and Jae Crowder also pose a serious threat to a Houston bench depleted by the Robinson trade.  While no team runs nearly as much as the Rockets, the Mavericks are the 5^th fastest team in the league and frequently cherry pick for easy layups, led by Crowder and Marion.  If that fails, they will generally dump it down to their offensive bigs in Dirk and Kaman, though Collison and Mayo both have a tendency to take shots which they truly should not bother with.

The Rockets should be able to have their way on the offensive end, however, as neither Kaman nor Nowitzki are exactly plus defenders.  Dallas is also one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, something which the Rockets will still have to ensure does not become a Dallas advantage given Houston’s tendencies towards smallball.

Tonight’s game will be one with critical implications as the Western playoff race winds down, which means that Harden and Lin will need to have strong games, the shooters will need to be on, and Motiejunas and Robinson cannot be as incompetent defensively as they both were against Orlando.  If all of those factors swing the right way, Houston can hopefully win the game and right what seems to be becoming a destabilized ship.

I’d also like to take this time with a few quick thoughts on the imminent Aaron Brooks signing.  Rahat was never a fan of Brooks winning the MIP award, a prediction which seems all the more true as Brooks is currently at danger of falling out of the league less than three years after receiving the award.  There is also no guarantee in the first place that Brooks will receive any minutes upon joining the team, as the Rockets are committed to Lin and Patrick Beverley has done far better than I had reasonably expected from him as a backup point guard.  Those who seem to think that this is some sign of the Rockets preparing to jettison Lin should, to put it quite bluntly, take a chill pill.  The midget point guard will likely take the place which I had expected Francisco Garcia to take when he arrived, namely that of a veteran shooter who can put up points in a hurry and may play a few minutes here and there.

Whether for the sake of an improved offense or out of simple nostalgia to bring back a key player from the 2009 Rockets, I know I will not be alone in hoping that Brooks regains his old form with his old team.  It is however highly unlikely he plays in either game against Dallas– the Rockets cannot officially sign him until he clears waivers on Monday, and Coach McHale will obviously want to take some time to integrate Brooks onto the team.

The post Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets on 3/3/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The post Houston Rockets @ Orlando Magic on 3/1/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.