When I promote ‘tanking’, it should be understood that I mean that that is what should have been done from the start, or early on.  I am not advocating that it should now be a policy going forward.  

Despite the team’s recent string of losses, it’s now far too late to tank; it would be pointless.  If even continuing to lose at a consistent rate, the Rockets’ current record already precludes a top draft slot.  Getting a pick in the #10 to #14 range would serve little benefit.  It’s unlikely that the player chosen would even break the rotation (see: Morris, Marcus) and he would tie up scarce resources.  Donatas Motiejunas is already slated to return and teams do not like to carry multiple high-priced rookies.

[I’ve already explained in depth why the Rockets should have tanked from the start.]

The worst scenario right now would be for the Rockets to barely miss the playoffs, as has been the case the past two seasons.  If they make it, at least they can build upon the ‘good feelings’ of the playoff berth in free agency.  While this would have nowhere near the long-term impact of a high to mid lottery pick, it probably does more for the franchise than a late, low one.

For these reasons, I feel that the Rockets will, if they strike out on one of the big names (Gasol, Howard, Williams), still pursue some short-term stop-gap solution at the deadline.  While the player might not help in the long run, he’ll make them better this season.  After already getting so far out ahead and destroying their draft position, I think the Rockets feel that they simply cannot afford to miss the playoffs yet again.  They will go all in [to the point that it does not hurt their future flexibility.]  Missing the playoffs, barely, yet again, would be a colossal embarrassment for the franchise and a marketing disaster.  If they make it, even as just an 8th seed, they can spin themselves as an up-and-coming team looking to “build upon last year’s success.”  Had they had a high pick, they could market the hot-shot rookie or the big name veteran acquired by trading the rookie.  If finishing 11th or 14th, they’ll be the butt of every joke.

Last night, I mentioned Grant Hill as an example of a guy I think they could pursue.  Now obviously, Hill has unique circumstances which would make him difficult to acquire (namely that the Suns would not trade him out of respect to Steve Nash.)  But he fits the mold of the type of player the Rockets could pursue.  They want someone who would improve their team this season, filling a hole, who could be acquired relatively cheaply, and whose contract does not extend beyond this year.

Hill would slide right in as the backup wing, could probably be had for Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger, and his $6.5million salary comes off the books this summer.

Another target would be Chris Kaman.  In general, look for them to try to flip some combination of the ‘09 busts for a veteran who can actually help them.  This would improve their on-court personnel while keeping their financial outlook at status quo.

The post My stance on tanking appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

What does BRI entail?

Larry Coon explains:

Basketball Related Income (BRI) essentially includes any income received by the NBA, NBA Properties or NBA Media Ventures. This includes:

• Regular season gate receipts
• Broadcast rights
• Exhibition game proceeds
• Playoff gate receipts
• Novelty, program and concession sales (at the arena and in team-identified stores within proximity of an NBA arena)
• Parking
• Proceeds from team sponsorships
• Proceeds from team promotions
• Arena club revenues
• Proceeds from summer camps
• Proceeds from non-NBA basketball tournaments
• Proceeds from mascot and dance team appearances
• Proceeds from beverage sale rights
• 40% of proceeds from arena signage
• 40% of proceeds from luxury suites
• 45% – 50% of proceeds from arena naming rights
• Proceeds from other premium seat licenses
• Proceeds received by NBA Properties, including international television, sponsorships, revenues from NBA Entertainment, the All-Star Game, the McDonald’s Championship and other NBA special events.

Some of the things specifically not included in BRI are proceeds from the grant of expansion teams, fines, and revenue sharing (e.g. luxury tax).

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Why is the ability to ‘create’ off the dribble so important?

The answer should be fairly obvious after last season when the Houston Rockets routinely failed to score late in the 4th quarter of close games. The NBA is distinct from college basketball in that set offenses do not function well against tight defenses late in close games.

This is why teams routinely put the ball in the hands of a guard who can break down the defense off the dribble and either create shots for himself or his teammates.

These players are usually the team’s ‘go-to’ players.

Ray Allen is the only guard who comes to mind who doesn’t attack off the dribble but is considered a ‘go-to’ option. Even then, he does have the ability to create for himself off the dribble.

The post The importance of ‘creating’ off the dribble appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

Another huge misconception that is fueling the unwarranted expectations lies within the distinction between ‘creating’ and ‘slashing.’

Most fans see instances of ‘slashing’ and either presume that it is the same thing as ‘creating’ or rather that it is indicative of the ability to ‘create’. In the minds of the average fan, it almost seems that there is an assumed ‘Battier-McGrady Dichotomy’ wherein every perimeter player is either completely rooted to the ground or has the full blown ability to create off the dribble.

This couldn’t be further from the truth.

In actuality, the abilities of players to drive with a basketball can be demarcated through a continuum ranging from Battier to McGrady at each extreme.

It’s understandable that Houston Rockets fans hold such a mistaken belief as, until Von Wafer last year, this team really hasn’t had any capable ‘slashers’ since Mario Elie. Every perimeter player has been either a standstill shooter such as Jon Barry or a full blown ‘creator’ such as Mike James, Steve Francis, and McGrady etc. There haven’t really been ‘in-betweens’ up until now.

Like Wafer, Trevor lies in that ‘in between’ range which characterizes ‘slashing.’ What this means is that unlike Battier, he can still drive to the basket and score. However, this is not ‘creating’ nor is it indicative of the ability to ‘create.’

When Ariza or Wafer drive to the basket, they are either attacking the defense as it rotates or they are utilizing picks set by their teammates.

There is nothing wrong with this as Trevor’s ‘slashing’ will be a huge boon for the team. However, the distinction between ‘slashing’ and ‘creating’ is not merely a matter of semantics.

It is important to identify this distinction for the purpose of reining in expectations because the same plot unfolded last year with Wafer.

Fans observed his superb slashing ability and complained aloud as to why he was never given the opportunity to create off the dribble to close out games.

A player who ‘creates’ off the dribble does not need special circumstances to weave his way to the basket. Players who merely ‘slash’ are usually using their athleticism and quickness to beat their defender after the latter is out of position.

Players who ‘create’ can face up a defender while in a standstill position and advance past him to the spot of their choice by utilizing an assortment of moves from the spin, the cross-over, to the behind the back dribble etc. In a nutshell, players who ‘create’ can go where they want, whenever they want, and however they want. They are not constrained by the positioning of the defense.

We saw what happened last year when Wafer faced up Vujacic and attempted to shake free from his defense. I hadn’t seen such complete ownage by a perimeter defender since Vernon Maxwell’s 1994 semifinals against Dan Majerle.

The sentiment is already beginning to rear its head, but I do predict that on the basis of his prolific slashes to the hoop, there will be calls to allow Trevor Ariza to close out games off the dribble. Either when it’s attempted and he proves incapable or when he isn’t even given the chance, there will be general disappointment.

I am not against giving Ariza the chance to succeed, but fans should be cognizant of his limitations and not feel disappointment when their unrealistic expectations are not met.

The post The difference between ‘creating’ and ‘slashing with the ball’ appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

There is a widespread assumption that a player can simply practice over the offseason and develop the ability to ‘create’ off the dribble. More than just misunderstanding the essence of this skill, this really demonstrates an overall lack of appreciation of the extreme talent level of some of the NBA’s elite wings.

This aforementioned phenomenon is most pervasive at draft time. Without fail, one can expect fans and pseudo-experts to point to any particularly raw and athletic perimeter player and apply the mistaken assumption that “he can’t really create his own shot too well off the dribble but that’s ok, he can develop that later.”

It almost never happens as planned. Richard Jefferson and Andre Iguodala are really the only two perimeter players that come to mind that developed the ability to score off the dribble after entering the league.

It is pretty obvious why this is so very rare. The fluidity required to break down an NBA level defender is something most easily attainable at a young age while overall hand-eye coordination is still in a critical period of plasticity.

A person can’t just begin practicing at age 23 and simply expect to cultivate that crucial feel for the ball and total control of his body required to break down an NBA defender.

The one counter-example always presented by subscribers to the assumption of ‘creating ability’ procurement is Houston Rockets guard Tracy McGrady. On the contrary, McGrady entered the league with ball handling as one of his primary strengths. (see 1:56 mark of video) He was starting at point guard for the Raptors by his third year. He didn’t just simply practice over the summer before joining the Magic. T-Mac already had the ability to ‘create’ his own shot but just simply was not given the opportunity to put it on display.

This is not to say that general ball handling cannot be improved. It certainly can and most players do improve in this area. But that is markedly distinct from developing the full blown ability to ‘create’.

I’m not completely ruling out the possibility that Ariza someday comes to develop the ability to ‘create’ off the dribble. There are few absolutes in sports. My point is that fans should not simply expect this ability to come as part of some natural, expected maturation process.

It’s highly, highly unlikely to occur. If it does happen for Ariza, it was something extremely out of the ordinary and should be appreciated as such.

Such a development should not just be a foregone conclusion as has been presented and as seems to be perceived by many fans.

The post The Confusion Over ‘Creating’ appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The media is largely culpable for the unreasonable expectations surrounding Houston Rockets guard Trevor Ariza.

Without fail, virtually every fluff piece pertaining to the acquisition made some comparison to Tracy McGrady’s emergence with Orlando.

Beyond the surface, there are very few commonalities between the two circumstances.

The premise that Ariza could make a progression similar to that of Tracy McGrady really underestimates the unique talent of the latter. McGrady didn’t just suck in Toronto, practice over the off-season, and blow up the next year. Unfortunately, this seems to be the accepted historical narrative.

McGrady entered the league with a very high skill level but did not get the opportunity to display his talents in the Raptors’ system in Vince Carter’s shadow.

Of course, McGrady did gain strength and improve his shooting and footwork with Orlando. But he already had the elite level ball handling abilities which afforded him a basic framework of capabilities through which he was able to develop a full-fledged offensive arsenal. McGrady simply needed the chance to unleash his talents.

Therein lies the difference with Ariza. Trevor has been in the league for quite some time and has never demonstrated any potential to score off the dribble. If it were ever to happen, we probably would have seen hints of it already, with Trevor now at age 24.

It’s very possible that Trevor expands certain facets of his game (as he has clearly improved his shooting), but he almost undoubtedly will never become an elite overall offensive threat.

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