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@  slick shoes : (22 July 2014 - 03:11 AM) live by the three, die by the three.
@  feelingsuper... : (22 July 2014 - 02:54 AM) 21% on three pointers by Canaan and company, damn.
@  feelingsuper... : (22 July 2014 - 02:51 AM) Rockets Summer Leaguers shot 32%, rough ending.
@  Buckko : (20 July 2014 - 07:01 PM) I refer to the writers, as yall due to the multiple of them. We are the loyal readers. I should've word it better.
@  rockets best... : (20 July 2014 - 06:12 PM) we and y'all are the same people :lol:
@  bboley24 : (20 July 2014 - 12:32 PM) who is we and who is yall?
@  Buckko : (20 July 2014 - 08:21 AM) Can we get a post about defensive improvement or yall waiting until the defensive assistant gets chosen?
@  Buckko : (20 July 2014 - 07:37 AM) With internal improvement, the defensive minded FA acquisitions, and hopefully a good Defensive minded assistant. The rockets will be closer to a top 5 D than top 10.
@  miketheodio : (20 July 2014 - 05:55 AM) i wonder how much better the starting 5 will be with a wing who actually plays defense
@  rockets best... : (18 July 2014 - 09:26 PM) Kendall Marshall is Ish Smith of a few years ago
@  Cooper : (18 July 2014 - 07:33 PM) Lakers waived Kendall Marshall, hes decent.
@  YaoMan : (18 July 2014 - 07:10 PM) @ slick shoes - And I'm bringing muzzles for them ladies in case they feel the need to start!
@  slick shoes : (18 July 2014 - 07:06 PM) @YaoMan I got a bit nervous at the Bosh strike out but one: FA isn't over and two: it's a long way until the trade deadline. As the saying goes, "It's not over until the fat lady sings."
@  YaoMan : (18 July 2014 - 07:00 PM) @ slick shoes, great points. Just nervous energy while all productive FAs are starting to get snatched up!
@  Cooper : (18 July 2014 - 05:24 PM) yeah i doubt they bringing these guys in with the expectation of them being great, we just need guys to soak up some min maybe a few pan out, maybe they don't.
@  slick shoes : (18 July 2014 - 04:53 PM) We could possibly be just filling slots and/or acquiring trade pieces at this point. Also keep in mind that these contracts are short and cheap which makes them moveable and also keeps us flexible cap wise.
@  YaoMan : (18 July 2014 - 03:52 PM) Adrien, Dorsey and Ish Smith signings (all ex-Rockets) don't impress me in the least...They do not replace any of the production that has left...
@  bladad : (18 July 2014 - 11:38 AM) At this point, would you let go of Wiggins or Kyrie? Lebron could just play point forward for the team...
@  08huangj : (18 July 2014 - 02:36 AM) Reports say that the Rockets just signed Ish Smith?
@  Cooper : (18 July 2014 - 12:45 AM) I don't know if Id trade wiggins for love. Wiggins with lebron would wreck on D. having Irving love and waiters as generally minus defenders and no real rim protector could be a problem.

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Schedule Analysis, 2012-13 Edition


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#1 Sir Thursday

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:25 PM

By popular demand, I present the 2012-13 edition of the Schedule Analysis thread!

Let me know if you disagree with how I've ranked any of these. The ones I personally felt were controversial were:
  • Portland - Favoured (we're 0-2 against them but I felt we were better in both games and should have won both of them)
  • LA Lakers - Anything Would Be Nice (I look at their team and think we shouldn't realy stand a chance on paper, even though with all the internal turmoil they're going through)
  • Memphis - Underdog (They've started out like title contenders but I feel like we should be able to scrape one of our meetings)
  • Minnesota - Even (Historically we've struggled against Kevin Love and company, but I feel like our personnel matches up better with them well enough to put us on level pegging this time around)
It's a good idea to try and get these categorizations right early, because we project to be on the fringes of playoff qualification and one win here or there could make a big difference. So if people strongly disagree with what I've put up then I can adjust things.

ST


Current Standings:

:
:
5. Golden State (10-7)
6. Denver (9-9)
7. Houston (8-8)
8. Utah (9-10)
9. LA Lakers (8-9)
10. Dallas (8-9)
11. Minnesota (7-8)


Last 5 Games:

vs Chicago (WON)
vs New York (WON)
vs Toronto (WON)
@ Oklahoma City (LOST)
vs Utah (WON)

Actual Score: 4 from 5
Expected Score: 2.25 from 5


Next 5 Games:

vs LA Lakers (8-9)
@ San Antonio (14-4)
vs Dallas (8-9)
vs San Antonio (14-4)
vs Washington (1-13)

Expected Score: 1.5 from 5



Full Schedule Breakdown:

Easy Wins (Expected: 100%)

Sacramento x3
Washington x2
Detroit x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2
Cleveland x2

Current Score: 2-0
Expected Score: 11-0

Favoured (Expected: 75%)

New Orleans x4 (1-0)
Phoenix x4
Portland x4 (0-2)
Toronto x2 (1-0)
Orlando x2
Milwaukee x2
Chicago x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 3-2
Expected Score: 15-5

Even (Expected: 50%)

Dallas x4
Utah x4 (1-1)
Golden State x4
Minnesota x3
Atlanta x2 (1-0)
Indiana x2
Boston x2
Philadelphia x2

Current Score: 2-1
Expected Score: 12-11

Underdog (Expected: 25%)

Denver x4 (0-1)
Memphis x4 (0-1)
LA Clippers x3
Brooklyn x2
New York x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 1-2
Expected Score: 3-12

Anything Would Be Nice (Expected: 0%)

San Antonio x4
LA Lakers x4 (0-1)
Oklahoma City x3 (0-1)
Miami x2 (0-1)

Current Score: 0-3
Expected Score: 0-13



Current Record: 8-8
Projected Record: 41-41
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#2 Drew in Abilene

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 03:01 AM

Thanks for getting this started! And I'm excited that the Rockets immediately went out and stole one from the Lakers to get their first win in the "Anything Would Be Nice" section. Here's to hoping it's the first of several!
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#3 Sir Thursday

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 12:45 PM

Current Standings:

:
:
6. Minnesota (12-9)
7. Utah (13-12)
8. Denver (12-12)
9. Houston (11-11)
9. Dallas (11-13)
10. Portland (10-12)
11. LA Lakers (10-14)


Last 5 Games:

@ San Antonio (LOST)
vs Dallas (LOST)
vs San Antonio (LOST)
vs Washington (WON)
vs Boston (WON)

Actual Score: 2 from 5
Expected Score: 2 from 5


Next 5 Games:

@ Toronto (5-19)
@ New York (18-5)
vs Philidelphia (12-11)
vs Memphis (15-6)
@ Chicago (13-9)

Expected Score: 2.5 from 5



Full Schedule Breakdown:

Easy Wins (Expected: 100%)

Sacramento x3
Washington x2 (1-0)
Detroit x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2
Cleveland x2

Current Score: 3-0
Expected Score: 11-0

Favoured (Expected: 75%)

New Orleans x4 (1-0)
Phoenix x4
Portland x4 (0-2)
Toronto x2 (1-0)
Orlando x2
Milwaukee x2
Chicago x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 3-2
Expected Score: 14-6

Even (Expected: 50%)

Dallas x4 (0-1)
Utah x4 (1-1)
Golden State x4
Minnesota x3
Atlanta x2 (1-0)
Indiana x2
Boston x2 (1-0)
Philadelphia x2

Current Score: 3-2
Expected Score: 12-11

Underdog (Expected: 25%)

Denver x4 (0-1)
Memphis x4 (0-1)
LA Clippers x3
Brooklyn x2
New York x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 1-2
Expected Score: 4-11

Anything Would Be Nice (Expected: 0%)

San Antonio x4 (0-2)
LA Lakers x4 (1-1)
Oklahoma City x3 (0-1)
Miami x2 (0-1)

Current Score: 1-5
Expected Score: 1-12



Current Record: 11-11
Projected Record: 42-40

Hollinger's Prediction: 40-42
Hollinger's 8th Seed Prediction: 42-40
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#4 Sir Thursday

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 06:39 PM

Current Standings:

:
:
4. Memphis (18-8)
5. Utah (19-10)
6. Houston (16-12)
7. Denver (16-14)
8. Portland (14-13)
9. Utah (15-15)


Last 5 Games:

@ New York (W)
vs Philidelphia (W)
vs Memphis (W)
@ Chicago (W)
@ Minnesota (W)

Actual Score: 5 from 5
Expected Score: 2.25 from 5


Next 5 Games:

@ San Antonio (22-8)
vs Oklahoma City (22-6)
vs Atlanta (17-9)
vs New Orleans (6-22)
@ Milwaukee (15-12)

Expected Score: 2 from 5



Full Schedule Breakdown:

Easy Wins (Expected: 100%)

Sacramento x3
Washington x2 (1-0)
Detroit x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2
Cleveland x2

Current Score: 3-0
Expected Score: 11-0

Favoured (Expected: 75%)

New Orleans x4 (1-0)
Phoenix x4
Portland x4 (0-2)
Toronto x2 (1-1)
Orlando x2
Milwaukee x2
Chicago x2 (2-0)

Current Score: 4-3
Expected Score: 13-7

Even (Expected: 50%)

Dallas x4 (0-1)
Utah x4 (1-1)
Golden State x4
Minnesota x3 (1-0)
Atlanta x2 (1-0)
Indiana x2
Boston x2 (1-0)
Philadelphia x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 5-2
Expected Score: 13-10

Underdog (Expected: 25%)

Denver x4 (0-1)
Memphis x4 (1-1)
LA Clippers x3
Brooklyn x2
New York x2 (2-0)

Current Score: 3-2
Expected Score: 6-9

Anything Would Be Nice (Expected: 0%)

San Antonio x4 (0-2)
LA Lakers x4 (1-1)
Oklahoma City x3 (0-1)
Miami x2 (0-1)

Current Score: 1-5
Expected Score: 1-12



Current Record: 16-12
Projected Record: 44-38

Hollinger Method Prediction: 49-33
Hollinger Method 8th Seed Prediction: 42-40


(The Hollinger method is a lot more optimistic than I am, I think because it works using points differential. Since we've been killing teams recently, it likes us to do well. But 49 wins seems way too high to me).
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#5 Johnny Rocket

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 12:25 AM

Hollinger has the Rockets as the sixth best team in the NBA. That may be high, but its shows how far the team has come along. At the beginning of the year, we were debating whether the Rockets winning 40 games was ridiculously optimistic; we now have a puncher's chance of winning 50 games, especially if you follow the advanced stats.

I'd move Brooklyn from "underdog" to "favored"--we should sweep them this year, as they have a very flawed team. I'd also move Philadelphia and Boston to "favored" as well. We can win on the road against both teams. Denver is "even" to me--we will probably lose both road games, but we should win both home games. And we should also beat the Lakers at home as well. If you make these changes, then 49 wins seems just about right.
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#6 redfaithful

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 01:19 PM

Since coming back from the road trip Nov 19, the Rockets played 19 games, and won 12 of them. Of the seven losses three were against SA and two against OKC. Obviously SA and OKC know how to deal with the young Rockets. So taking out these games only two losses are left - DAL at home and TOR away. And... of the 12 wins only two were against sub .450 teams (TOR and WAS). If we treat the first 3 weeks of the season as learning experience, I think 49 is not so far fetched.
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#7 Stephen

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 05:07 PM

If the Rockets are within shouting distance of .500 at the end of January I'll be shocked-and hugely impressed.

Jan is just a brutal schedule with 6 sets of back-to-backs,3 on road,3 rd/home splits,none both at home.
There are two 4 games in 5 nights sets,with just two days off between them.
Overall,starting Jan 4,the Rockets play 10 games in 16 days,8 on the road,the home games are the two LA teams and all of the games are back-to-backs.
The Rockets have 12 road games in Jan and 5 home games.

In Jan the Rockets have 6 back-to-backs,they have just 7 combined for Feb(3),March(2) and April(2).
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#8 Sir Thursday

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 08:20 PM

I think 49 wins puts too much weight on the Rockets' recent success. They performed excellently against a bunch of teams that were either tired or hurting (New York - no Carmelo, Philidelphia - no Holiday or Bynum, Memphis - second night of back-to-back, Chicago - no Rose plus sluggish from large Christmas dinner with families), and that's what bumped up their power ranking so much. If they could replicate this recent purple patch against some fully healthy teams, then I'd be more inclined to believe the HPOs.

There may be a few adjustments in order, though I'm hesitant to put too many teams down as favoured. if you look back at last year's thread, you'll see that we ended up getting nowhere near our target in that section and the way to avoid that from happening this time around is not to put marginal calls in there. As Johnny Rocket says, Brooklyn probably don't deserve to be in the Underdog section, and Boston have been playing so poorly that you can make a case for a move to favourite. Disagree on Philly - I think with Holiday back they'll be much better than the dismal team that came to Toyota Center, plus our away game against them is going to be a 4th in 5 nights. Also disagree on Denver, because we've already lost a home game against them.

I'm also thinking I should move Milwaukee up to the Even category as they've been playing well this year. I'll make the adjustments now and then will do another adjustment at the All Star Break.

ST
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#9 Sir Thursday

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 08:55 PM

Current Standings:

:
:
4. Memphis (19-8)
5. Golden State (21-10)
6. Houston (16-14)
7. Denver (17-15)
8. Minnesota (14-13)
9. Portland (15-14)


Last 5 Games:

vs Memphis (W)
@ Chicago (W)
@ Minnesota (W)
@ San Antonio (L)
vs Oklahoma City (L)

Actual Score: 3 from 5
Expected Score: 1.5 from 5


Next 5 Games:

vs Atlanta (19-9)
vs New Orleans (7-23)
@ Milwaukee (16-12)
@ Cleveland (7-25)
vs LA Lakers (15-15)

Expected Score: 3 from 5


Full Schedule Breakdown:

Easy Wins (Expected: 100%)

Sacramento x3
Washington x2 (1-0)
Detroit x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2
Cleveland x2

Current Score: 3-0
Expected Score: 11-0

Favoured (Expected: 75%)

New Orleans x4 (1-0)
Phoenix x4
Portland x4 (0-2)
Toronto x2 (1-1)
Orlando x2
Chicago x2 (2-0)
Boston x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 5-3
Expected Score: 13-7

Even (Expected: 50%)

Dallas x4 (0-1)
Utah x4 (1-1)
Golden State x4
Minnesota x3 (1-0)
Atlanta x2 (1-0)
Indiana x2
Philadelphia x2 (1-0)
Brooklyn x2
Milwaukee x2

Current Score: 4-2
Expected Score: 14-11

Underdog (Expected: 25%)

Denver x4 (0-1)
Memphis x4 (1-1)
LA Clippers x3
New York x2 (2-0)

Current Score: 3-2
Expected Score: 5-8

Anything Would Be Nice (Expected: 0%)

San Antonio x4 (0-3)
LA Lakers x4 (1-1)
Oklahoma City x3 (0-2)
Miami x2 (0-1)

Current Score: 1-7
Expected Score: 1-12


Current Record: 16-14
Projected Record: 44-38

Hollinger Method Prediction: 47-35
Hollinger Method 8th Seed Prediction: 42-40

Notice that Hollinger's prediction has already gone down two wins from last time - it's as if that 49 win total was expecting us to win those two games! (In actuality, it's more likely that the margin of defeat against OKC sabotaged our HPO to the extent that we were recalculated to win less often). I think 44-38 is a good total to aim for and should put us firmly in the playoff bracket if we can achieve it. Taking 3 of the next 5 seems doable, but the Rockets will have to be careful to take care of business against Cleveland and New Orleans, which may not be so straightforward given that Varejao may be back for the Cleveland game and Gordon is back for the Hornets...

ST
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#10 redfaithful

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 11:29 AM

I think 49 wins puts too much weight on the Rockets' recent success. They performed excellently against a bunch of teams that were either tired or hurting (New York - no Carmelo, Philidelphia - no Holiday or Bynum, Memphis - second night of back-to-back, Chicago - no Rose plus sluggish from large Christmas dinner with families), and that's what bumped up their power ranking so much. If they could replicate this recent purple patch against some fully healthy teams, then I'd be more inclined to believe the HPOs.

...

ST


ST - I think playing against "teams that were either tired or hurting" is part of the NBA. Every team which doesn't handle older players' playing time well will suffer more from tiredness and injuries. So, the Rockets youth movement is an advantage in that regard, and we should not dismiss that. I must admit Harden and Parsons' minutes seem too heavy, hope the coaches manage to get them more rest. Taking example from Popovic won't hurt...
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#11 Johnny Rocket

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 05:34 PM

After last night's win, I'm increasingly convinced that the Rockets will win 50, barring a significant injury to Lin, Harden, Asik, or Parsons. The latest Hollinger's Power Rankings puts us 5th in the league-we just jumped past the Heat. In the last 10 games we are 7-3 against really tough teams (they have collectively won 61 percentage of their games). And we haven't been getting lucky with a couple of lucky breaks in close games; with an average scoring margin of nearly 8 points in the last 10 games, we've destroyed some very competent NBA teams. I totally agree with Sir Thursday that any individual win could be explained away by the other team's injuries and schedule, but what about the Rockets? They lost on the road to San Antonio in a fairly close game without their 6th man. They then got blown out by Oklahoma City at home--that was the fourth game in a five-day stretch against one of the league's best teams, so a loss is more or less inevitable at that point. The January schedule is brutal, but with Lin and Harden really clicking together--and Asik looking much more comfortable on offense--I think we will do well.
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#12 Sir Thursday

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Posted 06 January 2013 - 03:59 AM

Current Standings:

:
:
4. Golden State (22-10)
5. Memphis (20-10)
6. Houston (20-14)
7. Portland (18-15)
8. Denver (18-16)
9. Utah (17-17)
10. Minnesota (15-15)


Last 5 Games:

vs Oklahoma City (L)
vs Atlanta (W)
vs New Orleans (W)
@ Milwaukee (W)
@ Cleveland (W)

Actual Score: 4 from 5
Expected Score: 3 from 5


Next 5 Games:

vs LA Lakers (15-17)
@ New Orleans (7-25)
@ Boston (16-17)
@ Philidelphia (15-19)
vs LA Clippers (26-8)

Expected Score: 2.5 from 5


Full Schedule Breakdown:

Easy Wins (Expected: 100%)

Sacramento x3
Washington x2 (1-0)
Detroit x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2
Cleveland x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 4-0
Expected Score: 11-0

Favoured (Expected: 75%)

New Orleans x4 (2-0)
Phoenix x4
Portland x4 (0-2)
Toronto x2 (1-1)
Orlando x2
Chicago x2 (2-0)
Boston x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 6-3
Expected Score: 14-6

Even (Expected: 50%)

Dallas x4 (0-1)
Utah x4 (1-1)
Golden State x4
Minnesota x3 (1-0)
Atlanta x2 (2-0)
Indiana x2
Philadelphia x2 (1-0)
Brooklyn x2
Milwaukee x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 6-2
Expected Score: 15-10

Underdog (Expected: 25%)

Denver x4 (0-1)
Memphis x4 (1-1)
LA Lakers x4 (1-1)
New York x2 (2-0)

Current Score: 4-3
Expected Score: 6-7

Anything Would Be Nice (Expected: 0%)

San Antonio x4 (0-3)
LA Clippers x3
Oklahoma City x3 (0-2)
Miami x2 (0-1)

Current Score: 0-6
Expected Score: 0-12


Current Record: 20-14
Projected Record: 46-36

Hollinger Method Prediction: 51-31
Hollinger Method 8th Seed Prediction: 42-40


Starting to think it maybe makes more sense to have the Lakers and Clippers the other way around, so I've made that minor adjustment. While I would agree with redfaithful's point that you have to factor injuries into this, the reason I point that out is because it inflates our victory margin over the last 10 games, which in turn significantly increases our odds. Getting the wins due to opposition injuries is totally a factor, but I'm not so sure about blowouts where the opposition is missing guys.

@Johnny Rocket - I actually think we've been very fortunate with injuries so far this season. Sure, players have missed the odd game, but apart from Delfino nobody has missed any significant stretches. The 76ers missing Holiday is like us not having Harden, ditto the Knicks without Carmelo. We've only had two games like that this year (@Jazz and vs San Antonio), during which we've gone 0.5 games below expectation. I take your point about the blowout against OKC though.

In the case of the current prediction of 51 games, I think the key point is that there is quite a bit more weight put on the last 10 games in Hollinger's model. Houston have done incredibly well over the last 10 games, but I don't think they'll be able to sustain quite this level of performance all season long. When this past stretch fades slightly in the calculations, the number will come down a bit.

ST
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#13 Drew in Abilene

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Posted 13 January 2013 - 12:10 AM

We've cooled off a bit after that crazy tear of wins, but even so, I still like where we are sitting. I'm looking at the breakdown, and I definitely agree with switching the L.A. teams. Going back to your first post, you noted that we looked better than Portland in both games we lost to them. Since we didn't know them very well, I sorta agreed with that call at the time, but I think it's more of an even match now. They match up well against us, and Aldridge, their best player, attacks us at one of our weaker points.
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#14 Sir Thursday

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Posted 27 January 2013 - 03:47 PM

Current Standings:

:
:
5. Golden State (26-17)
6. Denver (27-18)
7. Utah (24-20)
8. Houston (24-22)
9. Portland (22-21)
10. LA Lakers (18-25)
11. Dallas (18-25)


Last 5 Games:

@ Minnesota (L)
@ Charlotte (W)
vs Denver (L)
@ New Orleans (W)
vs Brooklyn (W)

Actual Score: 3 from 5
Expected Score: 3 from 5


Next 5 Games:

@ Utah (24-20)
@ Denver (27-18)
vs Charlotte (11-32)
vs Golden State (26-17)
@ Miami (28-12)

Expected Score: 2.5 from 5


Full Schedule Breakdown:

Easy Wins (Expected: 100%)

Sacramento x3
Washington x2 (1-0)
Detroit x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2 (1-0)
Cleveland x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 5-0
Expected Score: 11-0

Favoured (Expected: 75%)

New Orleans x4 (3-1)
Phoenix x4
Portland x4 (0-2)
Toronto x2 (1-1)
Orlando x2
Chicago x2 (2-0)
Boston x2 (1-1)

Current Score: 7-5
Expected Score: 13-7

Even (Expected: 50%)

Dallas x4 (0-2)
Utah x4 (1-1)
Golden State x4
Minnesota x3 (1-1)
Atlanta x2 (2-0)
Indiana x2 (0-1)
Philadelphia x2 (1-1)
Brooklyn x2 (1-0)
Milwaukee x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 7-6
Expected Score: 13-12

Underdog (Expected: 25%)

Denver x4 (0-2)
Memphis x4 (1-1)
LA Lakers x4 (2-1)
New York x2 (2-0)

Current Score: 5-4
Expected Score: 6-8

Anything Would Be Nice (Expected: 0%)

San Antonio x4 (0-3)
LA Clippers x3 (0-1)
Oklahoma City x3 (0-2)
Miami x2 (0-1)

Current Score: 0-7
Expected Score: 0-12


Current Record: 24-22
Projected Record: 43-39

Hollinger Method Prediction: 43-39
Hollinger Method 8th Seed Prediction: 43-39


The recent losing streak has, as I was expecting, brought down the Rockets' numbers in the Hollinger Prediction to the point that the two methods are now in line with each other. I think 43 wins is still a total we can make the playoffs with - we just have to keep ahead of Portland. They're only half a game back right now and will be our principal challengers for that last spot the way things are going. Imperative that the Rockets win the remaining two games against them to split the season series.

ST
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#15 timetodienow1234567

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Posted 27 January 2013 - 04:02 PM

As long as Lin keeps getting lots of minutes I think they could get the 6th seed. If they go back to before during the losing streak then I could see them at 10th or 11th.
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Why so Serious? :D


#16 Sir Thursday

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Posted 09 February 2013 - 01:21 PM

Current Standings:

:
:
5. Memphis (31-18)
6. Golden State (30-20)
7. Utah (28-23)
8. Houston (28-24)
9. Portland (25-25)
10. LA Lakers (24-27)
11. Dallas (21-28)


Last 5 Games:

@ Denver (L)
vs Charlotte (W)
vs Golden State (W)
@ Miami (L)
vs Portland (W)

Actual Score: 3 from 5
Expected Score: 2.5 from 5


Next 5 Games:

@ Sacramento (17-33)
@ Golden State (30-20)
@ LA Clippers (35-17)
vs Oklahoma City (38-12)
@ Brooklyn (29-21)

Expected Score: 2 from 5


Full Schedule Breakdown:

Easy Wins (Expected: 100%)

Sacramento x3
Washington x2 (1-0)
Detroit x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2 (2-0)
Cleveland x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 6-0
Expected Score: 11-0

Favoured (Expected: 75%)

New Orleans x4 (3-1)
Phoenix x4
Portland x4 (1-2)
Toronto x2 (1-1)
Orlando x2
Chicago x2 (2-0)
Boston x2 (1-1)

Current Score: 8-5
Expected Score: 14-6

Even (Expected: 50%)

Dallas x4 (0-2)
Utah x4 (2-1)
Golden State x4 (1-0)
Minnesota x3 (1-1)
Atlanta x2 (2-0)
Indiana x2 (0-1)
Philadelphia x2 (1-1)
Brooklyn x2 (1-0)
Milwaukee x2 (1-0)

Current Score: 9-6
Expected Score: 14-11

Underdog (Expected: 25%)

Denver x4 (0-3)
Memphis x4 (1-1)
LA Lakers x4 (2-1)
New York x2 (2-0)

Current Score: 5-5
Expected Score: 6-8

Anything Would Be Nice (Expected: 0%)

San Antonio x4 (0-3)
LA Clippers x3 (0-1)
Oklahoma City x3 (0-2)
Miami x2 (0-2)

Current Score: 0-8
Expected Score: 0-12


Current Record: 28-24
Projected Record: 45-37

Hollinger Method Prediction: 48-34
Hollinger Method 8th Seed Prediction: 42-40

The strong recent play is translating into wins that pump our projected record back safely above the 8th seed threshold. Hollinger's Playoff Odds now have us 6th (though as before that's slightly inflated by our recent play being especially good). There are some tough games bookended around the All Star Break, and it would be good to see the Rockets actually beat one of the West's Elite for once instead of falling short. It's not a good omen to lose every game against the Thunder, Spurs and Clippers when the team is pretty much guaranteed to play one of them in the opening round of the playoffs, after all.

ST
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#17 redfaithful

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Posted 09 February 2013 - 01:45 PM

Fully agree that a win against any of the west's big 3 would mean a lot. The GS game has real playoff importance, and after last week's game Jackson will surely push his players' pride button...

After re-examining the categories, I think Portland and Philadelphia should be swapped - unless Bynum returns with a roar, Portland is clearly the better team of the two.
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#18 timetodienow1234567

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Posted 09 February 2013 - 04:26 PM

Also Denver should be in the anything would be nice category.
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Why so Serious? :D


#19 sircharles

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Posted 09 February 2013 - 04:39 PM

we can easily beat the lakers. as far as golden state goes I think they are a great team but we outmatch them, there weakness is guarding the wing and thats our strength. hopefully we get another win against them.
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#20 Sir Thursday

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Posted 09 February 2013 - 07:07 PM

Fully agree that a win against any of the west's big 3 would mean a lot. The GS game has real playoff importance, and after last week's game Jackson will surely push his players' pride button...

After re-examining the categories, I think Portland and Philadelphia should be swapped - unless Bynum returns with a roar, Portland is clearly the better team of the two.

Yeah, I think you're right on that front - I was planning on doing a recalibration at the All Star Break anyway, so I'll switch them around then.

Also Denver should be in the anything would be nice category.

Disagree. Denver are a good team (probably better than us right now) and they match up against us pretty well, but I still feel like we are good enough to expect to win 1 out of 4 in a vacuum. I certainly wouldn't put them in the same league as the teams in the AWBN category at the moment.

we can easily beat the lakers. as far as golden state goes I think they are a great team but we outmatch them, there weakness is guarding the wing and thats our strength. hopefully we get another win against them.

Remember that when we've beaten the Lakers before they've had injury issues (although admittedly, they will have for the rest of the season by the sounds of things). I agree that having them in the 'Underdogs' category is a bit strong though. Golden State are fine where they are - they're a team at about the same level as us, so putting them in the 'Even' category makes sense. As I said above, I'll make some adjustments when we get to the ASB.

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