We were supposed to be like 40-10 right now with posts littered all over this space about the adjustments/tweaks needed to contend with the Warriors and Spurs, to whom we would be looking up at in the standings. Actually, when I think about it, I’m disgusted in myself for the level of unintentional ungratefulness I’d have exhibited in this alternate universe. In reality, we just straight suck, 27-25, 5-5 in our last 10, with all of our team meetings, and empty quotes about focus used up. This, in a world where the antiquated Memphis Grizzlies have somehow managed to climb to 10 games above .500.
I was never going to discuss Kevin Durant because that’s kind of a stretch now, isn’t it? In my day, the SAT was the tell-all standardized test, and if a kid got like an 1100 (out of 1600), you weren’t exactly ushering him into the counselor’s office every week to discuss crafting a Harvard application. But the headline is in the news, so let’s do this, I guess.
I last wrote on this topic back in September. On Wednesday, in response to reports Houston was shopping Dwight Howard, sources told ESPN that not only did they intend to keep Howard, but that they maintained belief in their plan to lure free agent Kevin Durant in the offseason.
Now let’s step back for a moment. The natural reaction might be ridicule over the same self-assuredness that has caused the team to eschew incremental progress in favor of supposed star-chasing every summer. Here the Houston Rockets are again, deluded by some inflated sense of self worth, naively shooting for the stars, right? I know that’s what you’re thinking. But what really is the opportunity cost here? They’re not exactly turning down a Howard-Blake Griffin trade here; the best they could have gotten for Howard is probably a couple of picks. (And this is of course assuming that keeping Howard is a necessary condition to pursuing Durant.) The point here is that there really is no risk involved. They try to get Durant, and when/if they don’t, we move on with our lives.
The greater issue is the odds, now quite a variance from that September 5th post. Is joining this dumpster fire of a team actually appealing? The hope previously would have been a dialogue where you sat Durant down and told him “look, we were right there again this year, and with you, we firmly believe we can beat the Warriors.” But now? “Uhhhh….well, we’d definitely be better than Memphis and the Mavs.”
The Wizards enduring an even more disappointing season than Houston only helps. This is obvious, but it all comes down to Durant’s psyche. What kind of person is he and what does he value? You can stay in OKC where it hasn’t worked, but it’s a safe bet to remain effective (with the Westbrook uncertainty looming, unless you already know he’s leaving). You can go to the Wizards and join the dumpster fire there but be at home, surrounded by friends and family every night. Or you can hop to the greatest team in modern history, accumulating titles, knowing full well that in the eyes of later generations, mercenaries are fully forgiven.
I think Daryl Morey’s hope now, in light of changing circumstances (i.e: we suck vs. we were good before), is to present Houston as a tabula rasa. Come here, we have a great player who is your friend, pick the coach of your choice, and we can build something great together. That appeal is really the only hope now and it gets at the question of the strength of the Durant-Harden bond. How close are they on the spectrum of friendship? Is it a Blake and DeAndre kind of thing or a Francis and Mobley “I don’t know what I’m going to wake up for” kind of closeness? That’s the Rockets’ real hope because otherwise, this situation, at present date, isn’t very appealing.
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