I don’t need to speak much of Lawson’s merits, as that has already been beaten to death.  By some standards, he was one of the best overall offensive players in the league, with his ability to create for others and score at the rim.  The Rockets literally addressed their greatest weakness without giving up anything.  That’s amazing.  It’s like a fat guy losing 30 lbs. without having to diet or work out.  (That analogy works, right?)

I’ll get called a homer, but the Rockets weren’t really that far away last season.  They were within a few plays of being up 2-0 against the Warriors, playing without two starters.  Funny how seldom that point is acknowledged, as if bearing little to no significance.  It’s not Houston’s fault the team had roster parity with capable replacements ready to fill the void.  That doesn’t mean the Rockets would not have been better off with featuring the superior incumbents.  I firmly believe the Western Conference Finals would have been a different series entirely had Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas suited up.  Maybe not a Rockets Finals appearance, but a different series nonetheless.  There is value to not playing two 35 year old point guards in the biggest series in franchise history in 20 years.  And, because Terrence Jones.

I don’t know if Ty Lawson can get his life together, but I do know Ron Artest gave Houston fans one of the wildest rides in recent memory.  I believe in taking risks, especially when the price is so low.  I envision Lawson starting with Harden in the backcourt, and then quarterbacking the second unit when the Bearded One rests.  Last year, where the team went to Dwight post-ups in that spot, they’ll now have another premiere option, while running the same sets.  And Corey Brewer’s return means Houston will probably lead the league in fastbreak points.

This will immediately be the best backcourt in Rockets history, and no worse than the third most lethal in the entire league.  You paired a top 5 MVP candidate with a top 10 point guard, both in the primes of their careers.  Rejoice.

It’s amazing to think, in retrospect, at the deadline, most fans would have sold their souls to get Dragic.  And above that, all preferred Lawson, but all were resigned in knowledge of his unavailability.  Things fall in your lap in life sometimes, like instead of finding a quarter in the sofa cushion, unearthing a $10 bill.

Really the only concern, aside from the risk he cannot overcome his personal demons–which is a very real concern–are his defensive inabilities.  My response is that we made the freaking West Finals playing Jason Terry and Pablo Prigioni.  You literally cannot step down from that.

If the Houston Rockets win the NBA championship this season, the greatest factor in promoting that outcome will be the performance of Ty Lawson.

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But of course, the Dwight Howard maintenance plan is primarily about its namesake, Dwight Howard.  There isn’t really much left to debate over its efficacy: Howard came back fresh and dominant after sitting out over half the year last season.  And there isn’t much room for debate, probably, over its necessity: there’s nothing more important to Houston’s title hopes than a fresh and spry Dwight Howard; perhaps no force in the league more disruptive than a healthy Dwight Howard.  And there’s historical precedent: see The Dwyane Wade Maintenance Plan (2014-2015) (Heat rest Wade for half the year), also see The Tim Duncan Maintenance Plan (2010-2015) (Spurs rest Duncan for half the decade).  But would Howard be willing to comply?

Keeping Howard fresh, of course, doesn’t mean sitting him out half the year like what happened last season.  It just means limiting his minutes, and holding him out of back to backs, and meaningless affairs against the dregs of the league.  While Houston somehow got by with just Motiejunas in Howard’s absence last season, they should be well equipped this year due to the expected emergence of the aforementioned Capela.  In a perfect world, I’d split the two centers’ minutes evenly at 24 minutes a game each, giving Capela all the minutes he can handle in the back to backs.  That would keep Howard rested and fast-track Capela’s development for Houston’s future.  Thanks to Capela, Houston can enjoy 48 minutes of rim protection, and maybe as equally important, 48 minutes of the same offensive sets due to Capela’s surprising ability, displayed last postseason, to catch on the roll and finish at the rim.

What’s best for the team’s aspirations, though, may not be best for Howard’s pecuniary interests, particularly in what is essentially a contract year due to Howard’s ability to opt out of his contract.  2016 will be Howard’s last chance at a mega payday, just in time when half the league is expected to be armed with buckets of cash.  This is where self-awareness is key, at least when weighed against the temptations of personal ambition.  Can Dwight be convinced that rest is what’s best for his body, and that he can’t sustain the pounding of the regular 82-game gruel?  Or will he come into camp, motivated to prove he can still play big minutes and perform at a high level, like in his younger years?  I wouldn’t blame Dwight at all if the latter statement is an accurate description of his immediate frame of mind.  Who here could fault a man, one not yet even 30 years old, for wanting more and not settling in the prime of his earning potential?  If Howard’s recent past is any indication, it might be likely he’ll push once more before giving in – he convinced himself he could be effective in the post, when that wasn’t necessary, and really wasn’t good for his game or for his team.  But who here can even say with any degree of surety that a minutes restriction is what’s best for Dwight?  It may be best for the Rockets to hedge their bets, but what if he actually can stay healthy?

Another consequence of the Dwight Howard Maintenance Plan: less individual output, more uncertainty on the market, and greater leverage at the bargaining table in 2016 when Houston will need every penny in its purse, and by extension to keep Dwight for less, when it makes its push for Kevin Durant.

In the next installment, I’ll discuss the most important factor heading into the Rockets’ season: Ty Lawson

The post The keys to the Houston Rockets’ season: #2 – the Dwight Howard maintenance plan or, how i learned to stop worrying and embrace Clint Capela appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

Motiejunas is the third most important key to the Rockets’ season because the options behind him have thinned, and the Houston roster really has no other holes.  That’s an amazing point to consider: the Rockets now have star power at every other spot but power forward.  (Trevor Ariza can really be considered a star among peers who play a similar role as stretch defensive wings).

Josh Smith is now a Clipper, and it will be some time before Montrezl Harrell is ready to join the regular rotation.  That leaves just the mercurial Terrence Jones and Motiejunas to man the ‘4’ in a West overflowing with talent at the position.  What does Houston need from D-Mo this year for a repeat trip to the Final Four?

First, of course, he’ll need to come back from back surgery and return to full strength.  But assuming he’s physically sound, there really isn’t much improvement Motiejunas needs to make from last season to help this Houston team.  He was sound defensively all year, even at the rim, where he ranked at one point amongst the league’s top protectors, even despite his vertical limitations.  And of course, as aforementioned, Motiejunas was one of basketball’s most dependable post-up scorers, with his assortment of tricks.  And if he can bring that 37% mark closer to 40, it’s a complete game-changer, both for Motiejunas’ financial future, and for the dynamics of the Houston offense.

I envision Houston staggering D-Mo’s minutes to where he can feast on opposing backup big men as a featured option in the Houston offense, particularly in those critical minutes when James Harden sits.  He also proved very deft, surprisingly, at penetrating off the catch in the pick and roll, and then finding the open man on the perimeter.  There will be even more opportunities for sets of this sort with Ty Lawson picking up where Harden will leave off.

While Houston can make both Jones and Motiejunas restricted, both players stand to procure considerable raises.  Can Houston afford both players, or, more relevantly, do the Rockets have interest in tying up considerable amounts in two players at the same position?  If the Rockets opt for cap room, as they are expected to do, you can anticipate teams offering either player at least $10 million a year, especially with the cash that will be available this July.  I expect Jones to get dealt at some point before that.  Motiejunas is the better complement to Dwight Howard’s skillset, or even to Clint Capela’s if thinking longer term.

In the next installment, I’ll look at #2: the Dwight Howard maintenance plan

The post The keys to the Houston Rockets’ season: #3 – the emergence of Donatas Motiejunas appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

The striking thing about Harden is that he’s improved in some noticeable way every season he’s been with the team, adding nuances to his overall skillset each summer.  Last year, around midseason, he debuted a stepback going to his strong hand, something which prevented defenders from sitting on his drive.  He also unleashed the infamous Tim Hardaway crossover, breaking many ankles in the process.

One thing I’ve noticed is that James almost always comes back and plays well against defenders who have shut him down, evidence that there’s at least some degree of film study going on behind the scenes.  Which leads me to wonder how James will adapt to last year’s playoffs where, while he had his way for the most part against the Mavericks and Warriors, he didn’t look quite as dominant against L.A. in the semis.  As we know, Harden’s game is predicated on two things: 3 point shooting and finishing at the rim.  The threat of the drive is so strong that it gave birth to the stepback, with defenders on their heels anticipating the drive.  But at just 6’5, unlike the last great superstar shooting guard on this team, Harden needs jabs to get free, not able to simply rise over defenders.  We saw in round 2 what happened when the defender doesn’t bite, as J.J. Redick stayed at home with Harden in a way that would have made Shane Battier proud.  And if James did happen to beat the Clippers defender, DeAndre Jordan was waiting at the rim to disrupt any challenges.

The two things I hope Harden adds to his arsenal are a floater and a post-up game.  I’ve talked at length before about the post-up game, so we’ll set that aside for now.  But a floater would really benefit Harden because it would allow him to attack the basket, but not need to challenge the shot-blocker head-on at the rim.  Aside from getting deterred or blocked, the floater would also allow Harden to avoid another unfortunate late-game incident where he is fouled on the shot without getting the call.  That happened twice last year in critical games, most famously in a loss to Memphis.

And we’ve already written at length about the post-up, and how effortless Harden has looked operating from that setup.  No guard in the league has the strength to contest him, and it would allow him to initiate the offense without expending huge amounts of energy from the perimeter.

James should be more efficient this season simply for no other reason than that he’ll finally be able to get a break.  Like last year, where adding Trevor Ariza allowed Harden to save more energy for the offensive end, this year, Ty Lawson’s presence will give Harden a much needed rest on numerous possessions.  He can spot up while Lawson runs the show, or even just initiate the second read, rather than having to trigger the entire attack himself.  Whatever wrinkles Kevin McHale employs, and whatever new moves Harden is developing as we speak, in my opinion it’s all gravy.  While Harden’s improvement would help immensely, it’s not something the team needs to take yet another step.

Oh, and he needs to keep playing defense.

In the next installment, I’ll look at #3: the recovery and emergence of Donatas Motiejunas

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Length

I keep thinking back to a quote from Kevin McHale sometime early in the season, on the radio, after Houston lost to Golden State.  It was before the Corey Brewer and Josh Smith acquisitions.  McHale, when talking about the game, said something like “in the second half, they went small, so we had to adjust, except all of their smalls are 6’8.”  A few weeks or maybe months later, Daryl Morey landed both Corey Brewer and Josh Smith, transforming the dynamics of the roster.

We saw the benefits of the Rockets’ length in the early rounds, against Dallas and L.A., when the opponents simply couldn’t match up.  Anywhere you looked, there were Trevor Ariza, Corey Brewer, Josh Smith, and Terrence Jones, jumping into passing lanes, running the break, and switching pick and roll coverage.  Unfortunately, Houston ran into an even longer team, the aforementioned Warriors, in the Conference Finals, more pertinently, running out of firepower.

Ariza, Jones, and Brewer (thank God) are all back, but Josh Smith now resides with the Clippers, the team he tormented in guiding Houston to the Final Four.  In Smith’s place are free agent pickup Marcus Thornton, and 6’6 sophomore K.J. McDaniels whose rights Houston secured for $10 million combined over the next three years.  McDaniels is particularly tantalizing, and its easy to see why Daryl Morey agreed to pay the former second rounder a sum befitting of a late lottery pick.  He’s already shown glimpses of elite defensive ability and when given a chance, his athleticism should further fuel what looks to be, yet again, a devastating Houston fastbreak.

This is without even mentioning 6’7 rookie Sam Dekker who many predicted would be drafted in the lottery, but will likely have to earn his time in the D-League this season.

Ariza, Brewer, and Jones are cogs in Houston’s rotation, and should bring the same merits to the table which they did last season.  But will McDaniels crack the lineup?  If he can bring anything, even a few minutes per game, it will allow Houston to keep James Harden fresh, a task deemed almost impossible last season.  But to warrant playing time, the former will have to improve upon his disastrous accuracy (29% on 3’s) or opponents will pack the lane, daring him to shoot.

Yes, Brewer and Ariza alone will ensure Houston’s athleticism on the wings, but the emergence of McDaniels–just one more added weapon–would lift Houston to a different stratosphere, helping close the gap with Golden State.  They could mix and match weird lineups, playing Harden at the ‘4’, with two fellow wings, or even Harden at the ‘1’, with three accompanying small forwards.  They could trap, switch everything, and put length on star point guards for the minutes when Patrick Beverley isn’t hounding them.

Again, length will be a key for the Houston Rockets, as they enter the 2015-2016 campaign.  How it seems just yesterday Carlos Delfino was the team’s sole swing option off the bench.  So much has changed.

In the next installment, I’ll look at #4: the evolution of James Harden

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