Would it be insane for Jones to hold out for at least $15 million per season? Probably not, even though he would likely be the least accomplished player ever to sign an extension that pricey. Would it even be insane for Houston GM Daryl Morey to accept that kind of deal? No one really knows, but Jones’s team will begin extension talks at an eye-popping number.

That kind of market sounds about right given the expected cap increase.  I wrote last week that if Motiejunas proves he’s recovered from the back injury which saw him miss the postseason, we’ll possibly see Jones moved closer to the deadline.  One interesting byproduct of the new cap universe is the premise that, because there’s more money, it can necessarily be spent with indiscretion.  To put it in other words, just simply because Terrence Jones will garner offers at such high figures does not mean such a signing would be wise, or a proper appraisal of the player’s real value.  The market itself, with the cash available for buyers, cannot be trusted.

To some meddling Eastern Conference team, hoping to take a flier on a young building block, Jones might be worth the reach.  But for Houston, with a steadier option in Motiejunas, there are better ways in which that same figure can be spent.  Almost undoubtedly, with Motiejunas likely to command a similar sum, the Rockets will not bring back both players long term.

I’ve written extensively on Jones in relation to my deep mistrust.  Tantalizing in moments, but equally unreliable, at the most critical of times.  I have milk cartons from May bearing his visage.  It is certainly possible, maybe even probable, that with time, the inconsistency which has plagued Jones will be overcome.  But as I’ve written, Houston right now is not in such a position to wait, and now pay, for development.  They need steady production now in an unforgiving Western Conference where star power forwards loom on a nightly basis.  $15million may no longer be star money, but it is starter money, defined inherently thus as deserving only to a player who is a solid dependable starter.  How many times have you seen Terrence Jones languished on the bench, completely unplayable at the end of close games?

As I wrote at the time of his departure, the biggest loss in the Josh Smith parting was that the team almost had to hold onto Jones.  That wasn’t meant as a slight on Jones: I assumed at the time that such a trade chip would be necessary to acquire a player the caliber of Ty Lawson.  But now, the Rockets find themselves in a precarious position.  Assuming the team decides Motiejunas is preferable–and the team almost surely will not opt to prematurely extend either of the two–what does it do with Jones?  While the Rockets’ best bet would be a trade to recapture his value, there really aren’t any holes on this roster(!).  And a deal for a future pick and/or young prospect would only hamper Houston’s postseason chances.  Despite the reasons I outlined above in citing my deep reluctance to commiserate Jones with a payday, he still will be better as an immediate bench option than any other player on the market in February.  Houston might hope the newly drafted Montrezl Harrell can duplicate even a fraction of Jones’ energy to begin thinking about a deal.  It’s a development we’ll need to watch closely.

The post Lowe: Terrence Jones at $15million? appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

On Saturday night, Jones was matched up with Kelly Olynyk, a skilled 7-foot post player–exactly the kind of guy who Jones struggles to defend. On the very first possession, Jones catches the ball near the corner and welcomes Olynyk into the torture chamber.

A pump fake, a jab step, and a quick spin move into the lane, and Olynyk is taking the ball out of the net. Less than 20 seconds later, the Rockets go straight to Jones again, this time in the mid-post. A couple fakes, a quick dribble into the paint, and Olynyk has picked up his first foul. Clyde Drexler makes a joke about the Dream saying “we want to check his lateral movement.” Jones went on to put up 25 points with 10 rebounds and 2 blocks. It was one of the biggest games of his career to date.

Overshadowed by that performance however, was that Jared Sullinger pushed Jones around a lot. Sully grabbed nine rebounds, posted 14 points (although it took him 15 shots), and generally bullied the Rockets’ front line most of the night. Terrence Jones is still just 6’8″, and he still can’t defend bruising 4’s and 5’s. On some nights, against some teams, he’s still a liability.

Big. Fat. Hairy. Deal.

NBA players don’t become great by eliminating all of their weaknesses. They win by playing to their strengths. For every big man who Jones struggles to defend, there are two who will struggle to defend him. He’s arguably the best perimeter ball-handler of any true power forward in the league, even better than many starting small forwards. Go down the list of top-tier power forwards in the league–Kevin Love, Zach Randolph, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Anthony Davis–and how many of those guys are going to cherish the thought of having to defend a perimeter player for 36 minutes? Even if they can hang with the guy (thinking of Davis here), they’re still going to be dragged away from the rim.

Of course, all of those stars will go into the matchup with the mindset that they’re going to crush the smaller player in the post. For great players, mismatches are just an opportunity to dominate.  That’s the lesson Jones should have learned from LaMarcus Aldridge: force the other guy to play on your terms. Force their coach to pull them out because they can’t stop you. Force them to cry for mercy. Jones has holes in his game that he needs to work on, but he has all the tools he needs to torture opponents right now. Just ask Kelly Olynyk.

The post Terrence Jones and the torture chamber appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

Pina: Let’s start by gauging Jones’s public perception. In your opinion, is he overrated, underrated, or properly rated?

Rahat: I’d say he might be a little bit overrated.  He’s performed magnificently beyond anyone’s expectations this season, filling the team’s biggest void, and his insertion into the starting lineup may perhaps have been the catalyst for their turnaround. All of that has led many people to project him into a better player in the future than he may ever become.

I think there’s an assumption that due to his production this year, he’ll continue along a similar growth trajectory and blossom into a bonafide fringe-star. I don’t think that’s warranted because in a vacuum he’s a far lesser player than what he’s seemed this year playing next to Dwight Howard. Now, one might say that won’t matter because Dwight will always be around, but I’d counter that a problem lies with the fact that Jones struggles against teams that find a way to limit Howard without too much attention. Jones has to be able to do things on his own or we’re going to keep getting killed by the Thunder and Clippers.

Pina: Television broadcasters look at Jones’s production, and the incredible athleticism he displays on both ends, and think he’ll be an All-Star someday. I believe it’s more a case of Houston maximizing his talent right now, playing a system that suits his skills perfectly. Jones flashes open-court brilliance from time to time, but that stuff is more indicative of a superior athlete than a well-rounded player able to hold his own in a more controlled environment.

The post A conversation on Terrence Jones appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

Last year, he looked a little bit lost, a little bit underused, and a little bit underwhelming. Houston had high hopes for the trio of rookies they took into the year. Jeremy Lamb was and is promising, but was traded as part of a package for James Harden. That left 16th pick Royce White, 18th pick Terrence Jones and 20th pick Donatas Motiejūnas (waiting in Europe from the prior year). We’re best off ignoring last season for now, because the glimpses of what Terrence Jones is turning into were there in his first summer league.

Jones was one of the stars of the league, climbing up the rookie ladder, scoring over 18 points a game on 50% shooting and looking NBA ready before even seeing a minute on court. That’s not what his rookie year looked like, as so often happens in the NBA. But now, after a year of waiting for his chance to get back to those kind of minutes, he’s starting for the Rockets and reaching for that potential he showed in 2012. His 12.7 points in games he’s started look a lot closer to the aggressive, confident player we saw in Summer League. He’s shooting over 50%, he’s grabbing almost 9 rebounds a game and averaging a block and a half in those games.

What we saw in the Rising Stars Challenge was nothing more than a confirmation of what people in Houston already know. Terrence Jones is the real thing. His 14 points and 6 rebounds may not have been as eye-popping as Andre Drummond’s 30 and 25, but that’s not a bad thing. Drummond shot a respectable 12-21 from the floor. Jones shot a blistering 7-10. The difference between Drummond and Jones can be summed up by one moment from the Rising Stars Challenge practice session. Coach Nate McMillan was calling players up to participate in a game of around the world with military veterans, and he needed three point shooters. Drummond quickly jumped up with a smile on his face, volunteering himself. Of course, nobody minded that Drummond had only attempted (and missed) two threes all season. The game meant nothing except for fun. Terrence Jones, on the other hand, calmly waited and was called last… and placed in the corner, the most efficient spot on the arc. Jones sank his second try, sat back down, and prepared for the next event.

Drummond has to shoulder as much of the load in Detroit as he can. The Pistons are struggling and need some heroes to step up and do it all. Jones isn’t in that situation. Jones has heroes next to him in Dwight Howard and James Harden. Jones doesn’t need to take over. He just needs to take advantage. That’s exactly what he’s been doing, and that’s exactly what he did in the Rising Stars Challenge. He may play as a big most nights, but his game is far removed from Drummond’s. Jones only heaved one three, his first and last miss from deep. With the exception of a contested mid-range jumper, Jones saw a path to the basket and he took it. Sometimes he was ready for a pass to an open dunk. Most of the time, he created for himself.

I asked Terrence Jones after practice if he had been purposefully putting the ball on the floor more. “It’s something my coaching staff believes I can do,” Jones said, “and gives me the opportunity to do.” He’s had that opportunity a lot lately, especially with Dwight Howard and James Harden commanding so much of opposing defensive attention. “I’m a real good ball handler, and some bigs find that difficult to guard,” Jones noted, something that’s been obvious to anyone who watched him play. He has hands like a guard, something he used on national TV repeatedly during the Rising Stars Challenge.

Of course, with the dearth of point guards on Team Hill (Damian Lillard, and that’s it) and the offense-only, my-turn-your-turn style of play in that game, that’s simply what was available. Terrence saw what was on the table, and he took it. “Grant Hill told me he might need me at point forward,” Jones smiled when asked about what position he would play. He won’t be seeing many opportunities to run an offense, but the ability to dribble, to pass, and to shoot corner threes is more than just being a stretch four. That’s something different.

On a night when Terrence Jones helped Grant Hill’s team win the Rising Stars Challenge, the twist is that Jones more resembles the opposing team’s namesake: Chris Webber. Jones isn’t your average big man, and he isn’t your average player. He’s a passer, a shooter, a dribbler and a driver. We don’t know what the limit on his game is, and we don’t know if he could be a star. The beauty is that it doesn’t matter. He doesn’t have to be the next Chris Webber in Houston. He just has to keep taking advantage.

The post Who is Terrence Jones? appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

Much has been said about Jones and his role on the Houston Rockets. He’s performing at a higher level than anyone not on the Rockets’ payroll predicted, and it’s been a joy to watch. In an NBA season full of injuries, underachievement and tedium, Jones’ rise in Houston offers a counterpoint to the litany of turnovers and bad ball movement the Rockets offer on a daily basis. But while Jones has been playing exceptionally well, his true value this season comes off the court. He isn’t just helping secure wins this season; he’s helping the Rockets’ future, today.

Obviously, if Jones were to keep developing and stay with the team, he will eventually contribute to Houston’s long-term goals. That, however, isn’t even what’s on the table. Even if Jones were to be gone from the team in March, he would already have done the Rockets a great deal of good. In fact, the only scenario where his actions today don’t help the Rockets next season is one where he stays with the team. So what is it, exactly, that he offers Houston?

This has been mentioned before, but it’s becoming increasingly important. Having Jones takes the pressure off general manager Daryl Morey. When the Rockets were desperate to find a starting four, and another big to enter the rotation with Dwight Howard, Morey’s leverage plummeted. Ömer Aşık absolutely can’t exist in the starting lineup with Dwight Howard, and the need to move the disgruntled center was as plain as day. No team was willing to give up anything like equal value at Houston’s self-imposed trade deadline. But now, with Jones as a viable starting option, that’s all changed.

As the Rockets start getting back into the shape they were in during that brief, 9-game halcyon when Aşık was coming off the bench, Terrence Jones’ magic is starting to spread. He’s something like the player Houston would have wanted in return for Ömer, which means that the Rockets can safely call Aşık’s bluff and keep him on roster. If he plays, that’s even better. Suddenly, trading Ömer Aşık isn’t a foregone conclusion. Suddenly, a team might have to offer something worthwhile to get him.

That change in value has a ripple effect, as well. Without Ömer Aşık as a major trade chip the Rockets looked pressured to upgrade somehow, even if that meant moving a Jeremy Lin of a Patrick Beverley. The team was in flux and seemed to be reeling. So many trade assets, and with a need to move them, they would come at a bargain to other teams. If Morey wanted to avoid selling his prizes for pennies on the dollar, his only other option was to keep them to himself, which would have been painful.

Now, however, standing pat is an option, and a fairly good one at that. Terrence Jones put that back on the table, and that’s a huge point of leverage. If other GMs know they can just wait for the asking price to fall, that price will plummet without mercy. Once Houston can clearly take their ball and go home, however, that ball gets more expensive. With players starting to settle into their roles, their value to Houston starts to be a selling point instead of a drawback. It’s no longer “all we have are these role players, and that’s our best offer” and instead it’s “we’d rather hang on to these role players… unless you have a better offer.”

If Daryl Morey makes a move (and he will), part of the trade value in those players will have come from Terrence Jones and his newfound prowess. His stats are huge for the team and their chances of winning playoff games this season, but his value is even more important for the team’s chances of winning a championship down the line.

The post The true value of Terrence Jones appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

Jones has also notched a double-double in four of his last five games, scoring 25 points to go along with eight rebounds and six blocks in the one that missed out. He’s an omnipotent, versatile, athletic compliment who’s been asked to back up Dwight Howard at center and guard some larger power forwards in the post. He hardly ever turns the ball over and never complains about anything. The natural follow up question here would of course be: Is Jones playing himself out of Houston?

Earlier this season it felt like Jones was more a product of his environment than a beastly, developing individual talent. And as a scorer some of that’s still true. He scored 36 points against the Milwaukee Bucks last Saturday, but according to mySynergySports, 11 of his 14 made field goals came via a cut into open space, a put back off an offensive rebound, or in transition.

He’s far from the stage where Kevin McHale is calling plays to get him open, but that’s perfectly fine. As the fourth option in a starting lineup that already has two All-Stars and a budding third, right now the Rockets need Jones to be efficient in opportunities others create for him. Not the other way around.

And efficient he has been. Only seven players in the entire league average more points per possession in transition, and he’s shooting 65.1% on cuts. He might be the most athletic player on the team—it’s tough to name 10 guys who’re able to do more with their body, especially above the rim, in the entire league.

Jones has fallen back to earth after starting the season on flames from behind the three-point line. He’s now down to 28.3% after shooting 47.6% in November. But this hasn’t been to much of an issue so far.

Jones makes up for it with fantastic timing away from the ball; he does a wonderful job flashing into open space off Howard post-ups and high pick-and-rolls that draw his man’s attention (which is a vast majority of Houston’s offense).

Here’s his shot chart.

The more he plays the better he gets, opening the possibility for two different futures Daryl Morey will choose from.

He can either acknowledge Houston probably isn’t winning a title as currently constructed this season, stay the course, hold onto Jones and let this Rockets core grow together, take their postseason lumps and improve around the margins. (This scenario is independent of whatever the Rockets get for Omer Asik, who remains the number one trade asset on the roster, if they trade him.)

Or he can do Daryl Morey things and package Jones in a deal to upgrade some other part of the roster. This is the less patient option, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong. If you’re of the thought that Houston should “go all in” and try to win a championship every year until James Harden and/or Howard are no longer elite players, then moving the second most attractive asset to get better wouldn’t be that much of a sacrifice.

The decision is ultimately based on two things: how well Jones fits beside Houston’s franchise center, and how high his new-ish ceiling stands. So far, so good on issue number one. The offense has scored 1.6 more points per 100 possessions than their average in the 818 minutes Jones has shared the court with Howard. (Interestingly enough, Jones’ field goal percentage is actually 4% higher when Howard’s on the bench.)

The Rockets’ defense has stayed the same with both out there, which is to say they’re a top-10 outfit. Jones isn’t perfect on defense (he can’t protect the rim—yet—and tends to get bullied in the post) but he’s improving as a pick-and-roll defender, finally learning how to use his speed and length as an advantage.

At the rate Jones is getting better, even if Houston fails this postseason they could come back next year with Howard, Harden, Chandler Parsons, their 2014 first round pick, whatever can be had for Omer Asik (again, if he’s not dealt before the deadline), and be a better basketball team.

They’re incredibly young, have spent this season battling myriad injuries, and are still 29-15. They’ll be better next year even if no trades are made. But “better” doesn’t mean they’ll be good enough to win a title.

Trading Jones would be an interesting proposition. If the Rockets really wanted to, they could package him with Asik and their 2014 draft pick to create an incredibly enticing bundle. I’m just not sure anyone out there is willing to offer anything substantial in return.

The good news is that there’s no pressure to do anything. Jones is on a cheap rookie scale deal for the next two seasons. He’s very good, with a skill-set that fits inside Houston’s scheme on both ends.

Jones could very well be on his way to making the same developmental leap Parsons did. Who knows. He’s been Houston’s most pleasant surprise either way.

Michael Pina has written for Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

The post Is Terrence Jones playing himself out of Houston? appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

One of the more entertaining spectacles from each Rockets game involves Jones corralling the rebound and leading the break on his own. In these moments, Houston’s guards stroll the other way, confident Jones will finish the play. And with a surprisingly accurate shooting stroke, Jones can spread the floor and give Houston’s stars the space they need to operate inside. He is always moving, either in transition or in the half court, finishing the passes off cuts to the rim that Asik couldn’t handle.

Jones’ numbers have come down to earth a bit, in recent games, as was to be expected.  But make no mistake, his replacement of Omer Asik in the starting lineup has been the catalyst to the Rockets’ offensive surge.

Right now, I think the 21-year-old still has a very long way to go.  In fact, it scares me heading into the postseason with Jones as our second best big man.  I don’t know if he’s shown anything to prove that he can rotate consistently and defend the paint.  And even in the new era, you can’t expect to win in the second season without strong interior defense.

Still, the emergence of Jones has had its effects.  Had he not shown he could fill the role for the time being, Daryl Morey might have been more desperate to get a deal done, opting to include a draft pick to acquire the ‘4’ of his choice.  Instead, Morey stood firm by his stance and some of that has to be attributed to Jones – the sophomore’s play has allowed him to buy some more time.

The post Has Houston found its missing piece? appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

As we know, Jones fell to the Rockets at #18 in the 2012 NBA Draft.  I decided to take a trip through the archives to cobble together the story on a guy who most felt would go much higher had he come out a season before.

Jones was rated the 10th ranked prospect coming out of high school in 2010.  (Interesting to note Harrison Barnes ahead of Kyrie Irving.)

This December 2010 DraftExpress profile writes of Jones: “With his physical tools, NBA-ready body, and strong and growing skill set, Jones has a high ceiling and should stay put firmly in the early-to-mid lottery if he can continue this play all season.”

This December 2010 piece from Washington Wizards TrueHoop Network affiliate Bullets Forever writes: “Most mock drafts have Terrence Jones listed anywhere from pick 3 to 8 in the first round. I have him as #1.”  The author goes on to make his case for why Jones will be the best player in the upcoming draft.

Jones then decides to return to Kentucky for his sophomore year, and that’s when the wheels fall off.

From an April 2011 DraftExpress profile on Jones: “early season success surpassed the expectations of most. The lefty looked dominant at times playing as a face-up power forward, displaying a lethal combination of skill creating his own shot and making shots from the perimeter, along with aggressiveness and intensity attacking inside the paint and crashing the boards.”…”His early season success drew plenty of attention from NBA decision-makers, with his name often being mentioned with some of the top prospects in the NCAA. As the season went on, however, Jones lost some momentum, as his shot wasn’t falling, his role in Kentucky’s offense decreasing, and his confidence appearing to take a hit.”…”Some early evidence of this was seen in Calipari’s profanity-laced tirade during the Alabama game on January 18th, where he called Jones, amongst other things, selfish. Calipari later explained that Jones sometimes has a tendency to play soft and bail out his defender by settling for 3-pointers as opposed to putting pressure on his man and attacking the basket.”…”The more likely role for him at the NBA level, at least at this stage in his career with his current body and skill set, would be to play as more of a face-up four man, similar to his role at Kentucky. This would suit teams looking to get out and run a bit more, and would help with spacing in the half-court. Jones could continue to exploit his quickness advantage on the offensive end and utilize his ability to make plays of the dribble, attacking the basket, or using a dribble or two and pulling up for jumpers.”

(Lo and behold, that last bit is dead-on foreshadowing of Jones’ fit in the Rockets offense.)

April 2012: “An incredibly versatile and talented player with clear-cut NBA tools, Jones was an elite player in the college game when he was zoned in, but the difficulties he has had making his presence felt on a consistent basis, staying focused for entire games, and not pouting when things don’t go his way remain disconcerting.”…”Kept on an incredibly short leash and challenged publicly on a few occasions by John Calipari, who had no qualms pulling Jones early and often for a defensive lapse or not boxing out, Jones struggled with his body language at times early in the season, and seemed entirely content to simply blend in for long stretches as the season went on.”…”Measured at 6’9 with a 7’2 wingspan and powerful 245-pound frame that he worked hard to add additional muscle to last summer, Jones has everything you look for in a NBA forward physically, even if he could be considered a tad undersized for the power forward position. He runs the floor like a small forward, plays above the rim in traffic, makes fluid moves off the dribble, and has the package of tools to defend multiple positions at the NBA level.”…”A likely lottery pick, Jones’s stock could rise if he can convince NBA scouts he’s moved past the issues that have plagued him in the past.”

From viewing this timeline, one can understand not only why Jones has flourished thus far with the Rockets, but also why he languished on the bench for so much of his rookie season despite showing early signs of physical readiness.  His is the story of an uber-talented prospect with skillset and prototypical size and athleticism but severe issues with effort and concentration.

One of my pet topics is perception and the role of pedigree in polluting future forecasts.  Take Jeremy Lin for instance.  A guy with his size and quickness who has produced at the rate in which he has would be considered much more valuable than he is under normal circumstances.  But because he was undrafted, most people view him as a fluke.  It’s interesting to apply this same thought exercise to Terrence Jones.  Let’s imagine he had come out in 2011, gone to the Rockets at #5, and was putting up the numbers right now that he is.  We’d almost surely be extrapolating that production out via age and maturation and projecting him to become a 20-10 All-Star type player by his mid 20’s.  Since we got him at 18, we’re still not really sure if he’s the longterm answer at the ‘4.’

Is he the answer?  We’ll need more than ten games to determine that, especially as teams continue to adjust their game plans towards his tendencies.  You can rest assured, however, that if Jones keeps up his current rate of production, the Rockets won’t be targeting a power forward in an Omer Asik trade.

What’s the future for Jones?  He’s done his damage exactly how the scouting report predicted.  He’s spread the floor, facing up off the dribble, but also makes quick cuts to the hoop for easy baskets which he’s converted.  (I actually think this latter ability has gone unappreciated, especially when realizing that those same passes Jones is converting upon were being dropped by Omer Asik.)  Can he stay focused and committed?  Those were the issues that ruined his draft stock.

That 48% 3-point shooting will regress to the mean in due time.  But simply the threat of 3-point ability is what makes the Rockets’ offense work and gives Dwight Howard and James Harden room to operate.  Jones’ main task this season will be to just continue bringing the effort and focus.  It is far too often that Dwight Howard goes for a block and his man scores the offensive putback.  (This happens atleast once every game.)  As the next biggest Rocket, Jones has to do a better job boxing out in these situations.  He also must do a better job on defensive rotations where, at some points, he’s been horrendous.  I could say that this will be rectified with age but I’ve seen far too many talented big men flame out after failing to ever mature in this facet of the game.

Over the summer, I’d like to see Jones continue refining his face-up game, working on ways to beat his man off the dribble.  His quickness and ability to handle the ball will always put him at an advantage and as he gains confidence in himself, he’ll become more decisive with his moves.  Right now, Jones far too often looks unsure of what he wants to do when receiving the catch.

Still, the biggest area which will determine Jones’ future is his help defense and concentration.  Fans look at rebound numbers and blocks and think a big man is producing defensively.  In actuality, help defense is the most critical barometer.  Teams with title aspirations simply cannot overcome shoddy interior defense.  That’s one of the biggest reasons why so many young teams flame out.

The post Terrence Jones and perception appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

What we don’t know about Jones is precisely why he’s so exciting. Only 21 years old, his play in sparse minutes this season has been instinctive, energetic, and—dare I recall Bradley Cooper’s sleeper hit from 2011—limitless.

As a shot-blocker he looks like a mini-Dwight Howard, and his full on desire to take the ball coast to coast after ripping a board off the glass rekindles thoughts of a young Josh Smith. When Houston played Denver earlier this week, Jones was matched up with Kenneth Faried, a bouncy ball of exuberance. “Can Jones be Houston’s Kenneth Faried, or would that limit his potential?” was something I jotted in my notebook after watching him snag a rebound over three Denver forwards.

All these comparisons are obviously speculation (or hearsay, to some), but now that Kevin McHale has unofficially given up on an Omer Asik-Howard pairing—and until we discover the returns on whatever golden goose Morey lands for Asik—Jones is Houston’s starting power forward in the here and now. Here are three questions that should help us get to know him a little better.

How’s his overall defense?

Let’s start by listing a few opponents Jones has already spent significant time defending: Rudy Gay, Carmelo Anthony, Thaddeus Young, and Dirk Nowitzki. The good news? Jones isn’t dead. In fact, he looked under control for moments against all those guys, staying tight and preventing blow bys of the most embarrassing variety.

As a help defender Jones has the potential to be destructive. He doesn’t “roam” around the paint so much as he ricochets from point to point; his size (6’9” with a 7’2” wingspan) and quickness creates the type of plays at the rim Serge Ibaka makes on a regular basis.

Of course, a couple weeks into the rotation, Jones is definitely not Ibaka. He struggles defending the pick-and-roll and is a bit too eager out on the perimeter. At this point, basic help on the back line is more instinctual than routine, but that’s to be expected for someone who still has a ton to learn.

Circled above is Jones, about to defend a pick-and-roll with Faried as the screener.

The ball is passed to the top of the key in a nifty design sending Faried back door, and Jones falls for it, hook, line, and sinker. His head and body are still worried about the ball, when they should be worried about his man, who’s begun a dead sprint towards open space around the basket.

And there you have it. Faried scores on a bunny. This is a case of Jones relying too much on his quickness, when what he should’ve done once he saw the ball-handler go towards the middle is sag towards the elbow. Instead he came up even higher to meet Faried, who isn’t a shooting threat unless the shot comes at the rim.

In the clip below, Jones and Patrick Beverley are defending a pick-and-roll against Avery Bradley and Brandon Bass. Jones sags to the free-throw line and plays the sequence perfectly…until he doesn’t. For an unknown reason, in the middle of the play, Jones decides to shift back onto his man, the rolling Bass.

Chandler Parsons has correctly slid over to pick Bass up, and it’s Jones’ responsibility to keep Bradley from getting to the basket. Instead, an open floater is lofted. Thankfully Howard was there, ready and waiting to swallow the ball.

I’m not sure why he decides to rotate off the ball. Maybe he thought Beverley was in position to recover? Or James Harden’s decision to crash down would have an effect on Bradley’s drive? Maybe the explanation is as simple as he was duped by a decent hesitation dribble?

Regardless, Jones can’t play starter’s minutes (he’s averaging 32.4 over his Houston’s last five games, more than Jeremy Lin and Patrick Beverley) and make mistakes like that one. He’s super fast for his size, but all that’s useless if he doesn’t know how to read the offense. Jones is getting better, though, and there’s no reason to think plays like the two shown above will become a thing of the past sooner than later.

What’s his offensive role?

When Terrence Jones plays, Houston’s offense hums. He’s spent 210 minutes on the court so far this season, and in that time the Rockets have averaged a totally insane 117.3 points per 100 possessions. Also: the Patrick Beverley-James Harden-Chandler Parsons-Jones-Howard starting lineup has played 70 minutes together, and is outscoring opponents by 22.0 points per 100 possessions.

These are, of course, small sample sizes. But they’re still pretty freaking wonderful. Since replacing Asik in the starting lineup, Jones has been a delight, hitting open space with timely off ball cuts, attacking the paint with aerial assaults on the offensive glass, and making the most of opportunities from the outside when opponents leave him alone to guard Howard, Harden, Parsons, or Jeremy Lin.

Last night against the Mavericks he had 18 points on 61.5% shooting from the floor. He finished with 24 and 9 against Boston, and 14 and 12 against the Nuggets. Over his last five games he’s averaging 14.4 points and 8.4 rebounds on 56.6% shooting. He’s at 50% on three-pointers (that will obviously drop) and is attempting as many shots from the floor as Howard (who gets waaaaaaay more touches that result in trips to the free-throw line, but still).

Where Jones has been most impressive is off the dribble. Here are two plays against Denver where he gets to the basket on his own, with no assistance. Scary stuff for a defense that already has a few dozen other things to worry about.

I don’t even know what’s going on here, or how Jones slithers from the three-point line to the rim. A sequence like this will probably never happen again in his career, but that doesn’t make it any less awesome.

A bit more conventional, here’s Jones making a smart offensive play. He pump fakes, blows past his man on a drive to the rim, and draws a foul. There were 17 seconds on the shot clock when Jones caught the pass, but he still looked to attack. This aggression is a very, very good sign.

If he’s Houston’s starting power forward in May, will that be good or bad?

This is the big question, and one that’ll ultimately be determined by the pending Omer Asik trade. My personal opinion is that it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It’d mean Jones is playing way above his head, because Morey wants to win now, and any deal involving Asik is most likely to bring back immediate help along with a long-term investment.

If Jones is still starting, there’s a good chance Morey had the flexibility to strike a deal solely focused on future returns (draft picks, undeveloped players on rookie contracts—think Thomas Robinson, but hopefully better—etc.). But if that’s the case, would it be enough for Houston to win the title? Again, super tough to speculate, but all that’s a million miles down the road and utterly useless in the present. What the Rockets have today is more than what they thought they had two weeks ago. That means more flexibility, both on the trade market (don’t be SHOCKED if Jones is dealt while he’s playing so well) and the basketball court.

Michael Pina is a writer, with bylines at Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

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