Last year, it seemed unlikely either of these players would be relevant ever again.  This year, were it not for the glut of guards in the West, both players would be All-Stars.  Dragic, before Eric Bledsoe’s injury, had Phoenix on track for the most surprising start in the league, averaging 19.4ppg with a PER of 21.0.  Lowry has Toronto atop the pathetic Eastern Conference standings, sporting a PER of 20.0, 16 points, 7 assists, and 4 boards per game.  He’s also very much available for trade.

While the Rockets probably would theoretically have enough to put together a deal, I think that boat has already sailed – I doubt Kevin McHale would want to risk tinkering with the already fragile chemistry of this young team by adding Lowry, despite his awesome abilities.  It is, however, kind of neat to look back to 2011-2012, when it seemed the Rockets had two budding stars, and realize it wasn’t fool’s gold.  These guys were legit.

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Along with Aaron Brooks, the Rockets tenures of both of last season’s starters showed the team’s ability to identify talent at the point guard position.  That bodes well for the Jeremy Lin signing.

Lowry was a seldom-used backup with Memphis whose time-adjusted stats ranked near the top of the league in several categories.  Dragic, on the other hand, was a star turned bust, whose struggles and unfulfilled potential went well documented.  It was different ways for Rockets scouting to identify potential where it wasn’t readily apparent.

What to make of each player’s respective stint and acquisition?  Lowry stands as perhaps Morey’s crowning achievement, reeled in for Rafer Alston’s corpse (a return value less than some carbonated beverages).  The 25-year-old seemed on a sure path to All-Stardom and might have made the team this year had his own team won more games.  No one played harder than Lowry and from the start, no one more seemed like a natural leader.  Word of the discord with Kevin McHale came as shocking.

Lowry’s rise really shouldn’t have been a surprise.  He ranked nearly elite in some stats for the time he played (see: Asik, Omer) and he shot well on long distance 2′s; it was Rockets brass that figured that same accuracy could be replicated from a few feet further back.

Dragic was a different case.  After an explosion in San Antonio, he never quite took the next step with Phoenix, struggling mightily.  Even with Houston, early on, he seemed out of control at times and not really a point guard.  It turns out, he just needed complete control before he could settle down.

Between the two, I think Dragic will end up the better player.  While Lowry is steady, Dragic is a weapon, confident in his moves and creative with his handles.  He must be accounted for, like a Ginobili; Lowry is really just a general, though there is no problem with that.

With Lowry, the decision to trade really was a no-brainer, especially with Lin having been signed for the spot.  Interestingly, the probability of the player chosen with the pick received from the Raptors ever being as good as Kyle Lowry is extremely low.  But the value of the pick is high.  So goes the NBA trade market – uncertainty sells.  (This is why I argued for years that the team tank.  The red herring was constantly presented that the odds of a high pick were too low.  My argument was that a lottery pick was needed as trade currency, not necessarily to be used by the team itself.)

Dragic still seems a head-scratcher.  Signed by Phoenix for essentially the same amount as Lin, was the fourth year really good enough reason to be a deal-breaker?  In retrospect, having secured the younger Lin, everything worked out, but at the time, Lin was in serious doubt and maybe even a longshot: was it really worth losing maybe the team’s best player?  The claim is that securing mid-tier players to long-term deals is recipe for mediocrity, but then what of the also 26-year-old Asik?  Do the Rockets just think Asik is elite?  Is there really that significant of a difference between a 4-year-deal and a 3-year-deal, so much that that one extra year would be considered overly burdensome and handicapping?  I’m still really not sure I fully understand that decision, but luckily it worked out.

Now we turn the page, the decision having been made.  Dragic will fill into the shoes of Steve Nash on a team destined for the 9th seed, structured by a management that seems to have no idea what it is doing.  Lowry steps in on the Raptors as maybe its best player, a team on the rise that could make the playoffs and push back the receipt on the lottery pick assignment currently pending.  The Rockets hope otherwise.

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The post Goran Dragic vs. Kyle Lowry: Epilogue appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

Lowry does not believe he and Goran Dragic, his successor as the starting point guard this season, will both return to the roster next season. Lowry was even less confident he and Rockets coach Kevin McHale can successfully coexist.

“I don’t think so,” Lowry, 26, said. “I honestly think it would be tough. Things have to be addressed. The situation would have to be addressed.

“If things aren’t addressed coaching-wise, I guess I have to be moved.”

The only surprise here is that he went public with the sentiments.

Lowry’s antics this past year have been extremely disappointing.  Longtime readers will recall that he was the first Rocket this blog really endorsed.  For his all-out hustle and on-court leadership, I turned a blind eye to his incessant whining about calls during games.  I ignored the battery charge because I don’t concern myself with players’ private lives.  When he didn’t get in the huddle, drawing McHale’s ire, I was disappointed but told myself it can happen – look at Dwyane Wade’s recent runin with his coach.  But this—to air dirty laundry—has really left a bitter taste.

Daryl Morey is notorious for not underselling.  What has likely happened—in my opinion—is that Lowry, hearing wind that no deal was imminent, decided to try and force the team’s hand.  If anything, this might have even decreased the likelihood of a deal.

Other than possibly his value, nothing has changed.  The Rockets will not trade him just because of a spat.  Far worse marriages have endured and people can learn to get along.  Still, as has been the case since the season ended, the Rockets will only deal Lowry for one of two reasons: a) if they get a deal which they think will improve their team or b) if they feel he has to be moved to retain Dragic.

They will not deal Lowry just to deal him – they will not sell from a position of distress.

**

The Rockets will have to make a cost evaluation.  Goran Dragic is going to get overpaid.  He’s a stock right now at its absolute highest price.  While he might be worth closer to $7mill, he could be offered $10mill/year.  Daryl Morey will have to determine the impact of that market disparity on his team.  Kyle Lowry at less than $6mill/year remains one of the best bargains in basketball.  Is an overpaid Dragic + Lowry’s return in a trade better overall than Lowry alone?  I’ve maintained that the answer is ‘yes.’

After the news, in concert with the Lakers’ exit from the playoffs, many pointed to Pau Gasol as a natural target.  I don’t think it’s worth it.  Gasol made sense last year because of the synergistic value with Nene – it didn’t hurt to overpay because of their combined production.  But Gasol alone?  I would pass.  An acquisition of that sort would do really nothing to position the team long term and would only perpetuate more mediocrity, albeit at a slightly higher level.

**

A final note: while this revelation won’t be the cause, I do think Lowry, due to simple logistics (minutes and dollars), will at some point be out.  On the heels of the Aaron Brooks fiasco one year ago, the revolving door is a troubling trend.  It’s not reflective of any failure of management – as teams sort to find the right core, this sort of thing happens.

But, it’s important to stay cognizant of that point.  The Rockets are still “finding their core.”  There is no reason to get over-excited about any group of players.  Three years ago, it was Brooks, Landry and friends that were the team’s future.  Last year, Lowry, Kevin Martin and co. were seen as the foundation.  Each group has or will move on.  As the season ended, the Rockets’ television broadcast heralded the great experience this year’s group had gained, despite the epic collapse.  Some here bought the line.  That so-called “experience” means nothing sans continuity.

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Huq: Can you confirm the rumblings that Portland will make Goran Dragic their top priority this summer?  Is that what you’ve also heard?

Golliver: Blazers Acting GM Chad Buchanan has repeatedly stated that the starting point guard position is the team’s No.1 priority. All indications are that after a truly awful season incumbent Raymond Felton won’t be anything but an absolute last, last, last resort to fill that role, if that. Heading into a rebuilding cycle, Dragic would fit Portland’s plans better than a number of the free agents that are coming available this summer because of his age and his proven skill level. You can find the logic behind Portland’s interest by simple process of elimination. He’s not too old (Nash, he’s not a retread (Miller), he’s not a 2 trying to play 1 (Bayless), he’s not a midget (Augustin), he’s not totally out of their league (Williams), he’s not a Felton clone (Nelson). Dragic has stated he wants his own team, Portland has been desperately searching for someone capable of handling that role on a long-term basis for years, he’s unrestricted and Portland has substantial cap space.

The only caveat is that this all is acting under the current operating protocol which could change at any moment. A new GM would potentially bring a new philosophy.

Huq: How much are the Blazers expected to have under the cap?

Golliver: At this point they are only expected to have two contracts that aren’t minimum or rookie deals on the books for next year: LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews (totaling $20.5 million). They’ll need to re-sign or match on Nicolas Batum and make a decision on J.J. Hickson. Various estimates have put them in the $15-$20 million range which we all know can change quickly. Buchanan has said the team’s goal is to add veteran pieces at the point guard and center positions using that space (via trade or outright signings) before going above the cap line to sign Batum. Whether they are able to accomplish that or not (or whether they are bluffing to appease fans and will actually proceed with a draft-oriented youth movement), who knows. But that’s the stated plan.

Huq: Do you think management would be open to trading for Kyle Lowry instead?  What would they be willing to offer?

Golliver: There’s only one reason I can see Portland not having interest in Lowry: his no contest plea to the incident in Las Vegas. This organization holds an incredibly high character standard for its players and views them as community ambassadors. I’m not sure that’s a serious enough red flag to prevent interest but that’s the lens they have operated through for years now.

As a player, though, Lowry would be very intriguing of course. To provide context, you have to realize what Portland just went through during the Raymond Felton Era. He showed up out of shape, melted down in fourth quarters time and again, called out his coach publicly, invited fans and critics to his home (broadcasting the name of the condo in which he lived) for a personal confrontation, put up the worst shooting numbers of his career (which got inflated a little during meaningless end of season games) and turned the ball over like crazy. Competency would be a luxury compared to Felton so of course Lowry’s skill level and reasonable contract would be very attractive to a team in this situation. Remember also that Portland does not have another option at point guard right now. Rookie guard Nolan Smith didn’t particularly look like an NBA player this season and he’s almost 24 years old. Whoever is brought in as the starter will be asked to play heavy minutes.

In terms of trades for Lowry, I’m not sure I see an obvious package. Portland is asset-deficient after executing a number of 3-for-1 or 2-1 deals over the previous couple of years and the younger guys have yet to break out and/or stay healthy. Portland’s best trade assets currently are its two lottery picks (assuming New Jersey’s transfers per the top-3 protection this season) and they’ve made it clear those picks are very available. Aldridge and Batum are guys they want long-term. Matthews is not untouchable but I doubt he would be of much interest. Portland would have trouble parting with him, anyway, because of the anticipated departure of Jamal Crawford and the health problems to Elliot Williams. I think to boil this down: unless Houston really wants a lottery pick this year there’s not a great deal to be found.

Huq: If the Magic do indeed deal Dwight Howard, would the Blazers be open to trading Aldridge for him or is that too great of a risk (without an extension)? Would they be able to manuever far enough beneath the cap to trade for Howard and also sign Deron Williams?

Golliver: I don’t foresee any situation in which Dwight Howard has interest in playing for Portland. I also don’t foresee any situation in which Deron Williams has interest in playing for Portland. That’s the major factor in almost all superstar moves these days unless a genius like Kevin O’Connor is involved. I don’t see that type of executive in either New Jersey or Orlando.

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This post is the latest in a series entitled ‘Goran Dragic vs. Kyle Lowry.’  All previous and future installments can be found via the ‘Dragic vs. Lowry’ tag below.’

This year, in 16 games started, Goran Dragic has averaged 17.6 points and 8.7 assists in 36.6 minutes.  He has shot 53% from the field and 44% from downtown. In the 38 games this year in which he came off the bench, Dragic shot 42% overall from the field and 26% on 3′s.

Overall in his career, Dragic has now started 24 games, averaging 15.8 points and 8.1 assists in 36.7 minutes played.  He’s shot 51% overall and 41% on 3′s in these games.  In the 235 games in his career in which he has come off the bench, Dragic has shot 43% overall and 36% on 3′s.  These career starting numbers are obviously inflated by the 16 games this season.  Let’s break things down further.

In his rookie season, 2008-2009, Dragic started one game.  In that game, he played 30 minutes, scored 5 points, dished 4 assists and shot 29% (2/7) overall. He missed both of his 3 point attempts.  In his 54 games as a reserve that season, Dragic shot 40% overall and 39% from ’3′.

In 2009-2010, Dragic started 2 games.  In those games, he averaged 12.5 points and 6 assists, shooting 56% overall and 50% on 3′s.  In his 78 games as a reserve that year, Dragic shot 45% overall and 39% on 3′s.

In 2010-2011, Dragic started 5 games and came off the bench in 65.  In the starts, he averaged 13.4 points and 7.8 assists in 40.3 minutes, shooting 42% overall and 33% on 3′s.  In his appearances as a reserve, he shot 44% overall and 37% on 3′s.

Discussion:

It’s no secret that Dragic’s numbers as a starter, this season, have been off the charts.  He also fared extremely well in the two or three games he started for the Rockets last year.  (I can’t seem to find those numbers.)  I wanted to look back at his numbers in each individual season of his career to see if there was a trend. Perhaps he’s just better suited as a starter?

As expected, these rudimentary numbers don’t tell us much of anything.  He fared well in the 2 starts of his sophomore year, but that’s far too small a sample size to prove confirmatory.  He was awful as a rookie but….was a rookie.  He was pretty much consistent overall last season (in his games as a Sun.)

Why is all of this important?   To determine, or predict, whether this season will be the norm, we need to understand whether some part of ‘starting’ suits Dragic better, improving his play.  That will help us understand if this year’s production is a fluke.  Obviously, if it’s a fluke, and not close to the norm, it would not be a wise decision to trade Kyle Lowry.

Many NBA players play better off the bench.  In shorter minutes, they can expend more energy and produce more for their team.  The opposite effect is taking place with Dragic.  I noted last season that while intense, he often seemed completely out of control.  Now as a starter, as he said, he’s been able to calm down and pace himself.  This has seemingly affected his shooting.

If we want to be thorough, we should also explore Dragic’s respective turnover percentages.  That examination will come in a later installment.

We could also break things down even further by number of minutes played. How did Dragic play in games when, while coming off the bench, he played for 30+ minutes?  How did he play in games when he played 20+ minutes?  I can assure you that the Rockets have probably run that analysis.  How much would it tell us?  I’m not sure.  Is the impact on shooting the number of minutes or the a priori knowledge that one will play major minutes in that game (ie: starting.)?  I think it’s the latter.

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In my first installment of this series–which you can access, along with all future installments, by clicking the ‘Dragic vs. Lowry’ tag below–many readers felt the ideal scenario was one which saw management re-sign Goran Dragic but rather than deal off Kyle Lowry, elect to retain him and play both guards together in the backcourt as they’ve done successfully in stints over the past two seasons.

The scenario begged one over-arching question: How would Goran Dragic feel about playing shooting guard for this team?  I decided to ask him.

I had completely forgotten that Goran was a shooting guard overseas, as he told me above.  Thus, I don’t think you can completely rule out the possibility of convincing him to re-sign to play the ’2′, next to Lowry.

With that said…

This logic overlooks two crucial elements.  First, while Dragic at the ’2′ is nice in spurts, the Rockets probably wouldn’t want the 6’3 guard at the position full-time.  Second, we don’t know how the starter/backup factor of all of this plays into the calculus.

To those who wanted to keep both Dragic and Lowry, I’m assuming the ideal scenario also includes retaining Lee.  That would mean having Lowry and Lee start with Dragic backing up at both guard spots.  We know from my interview that Dragic possibly wouldn’t object to staying as the shooting guard starter…but how would he feel if he thought I was asking about just getting some of his minutes at that position as a backup?

I’ve already asked him the starter/backup question in the past and he gave me the typical PC answer about it not being an issue.  (Courtney Lee was also sitting within earshot of our conversation so I wasn’t about to try and induce a response from Goran about taking #5′s job.)

So the question becomes this: If you told Dragic you were keeping both Lee and Lowry and thus couldn’t offer him a starting job, but that you could offer him heavy minutes at both guard spots (by trading Kevin Martin), would he accept the offer?

I’m leaning heavily towards ‘no.’  Despite what players say to the press, very few would turn down the opportunity to start for an NBA team.

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Offense:

• As a starter, in 11 starts, Goran Dragic is averaging 16.6ppg, 9.5apg, while shooting 52% from the field and 46% on 3’s.
• As a starter, in 38 starts, Kyle Lowry is averaging 15.9ppg, 7.2apg, while shooting 42% from the floor and 39% on 3’s.
• Notes: The sample size on Dragic, 11 games, is small enough to where you’d probably expect those shooting averages to regress to the mean slightly, but, at the same time, it’s also large enough to where you can’t dismiss the sheer gaudiness as a total fluke.  I think the overall takeaway is that as a starter, Dragic is, and will be, very good.

• Per 36 minutes, Dragic averages 14.3 points and 6.9 assists while shooting 45% from the field and 34% from 3.
• Per 36 minutes, Lowry averages 16.1 points and 7.3 assists while shooting 42% from the field and 39% from 3.
• Notes: Pretty similar numbers.  Also consider that these averages include the games in which Dragic came off the bench.  I think the conclusion there, looking at those shooting numbers, is that he plays much better as a starter.  Maybe it allows him to pace himself and play more in control?

• With Dragic on the floor, the team scores 104.8 points per 100 possessions.  They give up 102.3 points per 100 possessions.
• With Lowry on the floor, the team scores 103.1 points per 100 possessions.  They give up 100.0 points per 100 possessions.
• Notes: I’m not going to read too much into these numbers because they aren’t broken down with enough precision.  There were a significant amount of minutes earlier in the year when Dragic and Lowry played side by side.  In a future installment, I will look more closely at the positional breakdowns provided by 82games.com.

• In the clutch–in the last five minutes of games when the score is within five points, Dragic shoots 65% from the floor and 71% from 3, with 4.4 assists.  This is in 65 minutes of such circumstances.
• In the clutch, Lowry shoots 36% from the floor, 46% from 3, with 4.2 assists.  This is in 85 minutes.
• Notes: Wow. Dragic’s numbers completely blew my mind.  I remembered that Lowry was shooting some insane clip from ‘3’ in the clutch.  It’s come down quite a bit but 46% is still very, very respectable.  But Dragic’s numbers are beyond belief.  And one can’t even say he’s played far less because the sample sizes are fairly close.  Now obviously, Goran isn’t going to shoot 65% from the floor over the long haul.  But the point is that he’s a pretty capable hand running the team in tense situations.  I’d like to see numbers that compare the team’s overall efficiency in the clutch with each player running the point.  At the moment, I can’t find that.

Defense:

• Dragic’s man scores 36% of the time against him and shoots 38% overall.  In isolations, his man scores 31% of the time and shoots 30% from the field.  When operating as the P&R ball-handler, Dragic’s man scores 35% of the time and shoots 38%.
• Lowry’s man scores 39.3% of the time he tries and shoots 44% from the field.  In isolation, his man scores 32% of the time and shoots 39%.  When operating as the P&R ball-handler, Lowry’s man scores 39% of the time and shoots 47%.
• Notes: I was really interested to see these numbers.  Take them with a grain of salt.  For one, Lowry has spent many more minutes guarding starters.  Having said that, we’ve all seen with our own eyes just how bad Lowry has been defensively this season.  It’s been so bad that Kevin McHale has/had regularly made defensive switches late in games with Lowry and Lee/Dragic when star point guards have lit up the former.  He’s looked close to helpless on multiple occasions against the likes of Tony Parker and Chris Paul.  It’s been shocking as, going into this year, one of the greatest things going for Lowry was that he was supposedly a great defender.  Maybe he’s getting gassed easier after logging so many minutes.  Maybe he’s just too fat?  Either way, the biggest takeaway, perhaps, is to hide these numbers from opposing teams.  If they saw them, they’d P&R Kyle to death.

Conclusion:

Dragic has the better numbers but Lowry’s come at a bigger sample.  If we assume that Goran’s numbers will slightly regress with time, it’s probably a wash. Perhaps a slight edge to Goran.

I think the takeaway is that based on the numbers, you can make a good case for either guy.  Lowry’s the proven product but Dragic’s sample is large enough to feel safe in handing him the team.

In my next installment, I will assess potential suitors for Goran Dragic this upcoming offseason.

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