click to enlarge

Assessing Ariza – Part 3

For context, be sure to check out the previous three installments of the series.

At the start, nothing from the numbers is too shocking.  Ariza won out in the per-game statistics due to playing thirteen more minutes per game than Lee.  Lee had far superior shooting percentages and a greater PER.  What struck me was that Ariza had a higher AST%, BLK%, STL%, and TRB%.  The AST% was particularly surprising in light of Lee having a higher USG%.

I think one could argue that from protecting the passing lanes to rebounding, Ariza does ‘other’ things better than Lee. But at almost $5million more, is that enough to override Lee’s superior shooting?  I don’t think so.  There are also the factors for comparison that don’t show up in the numbers that every one of us observed: attitude, willingness to play within the offense, and overall decisionmaking.  In each of the aforementioned three, Courtney Lee eclipsed Trevor Ariza.

In the next installment, I’ll look deeper into the numbers, using SynergySports’ database to assess how each player fared in particularized scenarios such as isolation scoring attempts and spot-up shooting.  This will give us a better understanding of how each man’s game fits in relation to the Rockets’ offense/needs.

For now, my evaluation stands as such:

1. I was wrong about Ariza being the perfect role-player for this team.  He was a disaster.
2. I was right about the signing itself.  It was a good signing in that he was easily traded and for actual value.
3. Courtney Lee for Trevor Ariza was a positive swap for the Houston Rockets.

The post Assessing Ariza – Part 4 appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

While primitive and unadjusted, these measures, in combination with observation, allow us to confidently posit that the presence of Kevin Martin significantly impacts the production of Trevor Ariza.

In addition, because Ariza’s 3pt% remained roughly the same, we can attribute the improved production to, rather than open looks on the perimeter, a shift in the manner in which he took his 2’s.

With the season over, it would now be appropriate to revisit my earlier assertions regarding Ariza, originally made in Part 1, then reaffirmed in Part 2:

Will never become a go-to player on a good team

The belief by many fans prior to the season that Ariza could become a go-to player for the Rockets was so preposterous that it was beyond maddening.  I don’t think I need to spend any more time here re-establishing my assertion.  Anyone who has watched more than two games all year can recognize that Trevor Ariza is not a go-to player.  He can’t create.  Without that, it can’t be done.

Prior to the season, fans and media alike mistakenly believed that Trevor Ariza could simply run offseason drills, and, with more touches, blossom into a go-to option.  As I had explained, it’s not that simple.

Somewhere along the line, the notion that Rockets management actually signed Ariza to fill such a role became imbued within the collective wisdom of broadcast crews across the nation.  For a front office which likely conducts adjustments for even variables such as tightness of jock-strap, it’s far-fetched to think the Rockets weren’t aware of Trevor’s limitations.

Given Daryl Morey’s comments that Ariza’s defense alone justified his salary, in combination with the distinct change in the latter’s role upon the acquisition of Kevin Martin, it’s pretty safe to conclude that Trevor’s first half usage as a playmaker was simply heuristic and not intended as part of the team’s long term plan.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TIVwiEbYLc

In an addendum to Part 1, I tried to explain the difference between creating and slashing.

The clip shows instances of Ariza attempting to create off the dribble.  See how after receiving the pass, he has no advantage over his defender and the two men are squared up?  Because the offensive situation has not presented any advantage, Ariza has to try and create a situation.  That is creating – making something when nothing is there, either for oneself or for others.

Skilled guards, in fact most starting guards, can get past their defender, using various counter-moves such as spins, stutter-steps, or crossover dribbles.  A skilled player does not need favorable defensive conditions to advance past his man.  A skilled player does not need to start from a position of advantage – he can create a situation for himself.

Because Ariza is so unskilled, in these isolation situations, he either attempts to use his speed, or if using a counter-move like other guards, turns it over.  If choosing the former option, because most NBA defenders can stay in front of their man unless crossed-over, Trevor is usually either cut off or forced into an awkward position.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUhWujMSXzo

Trevor Ariza has other weaknesses which severely limit him as an offensive threat.  As seen in the clip, he has very poor body control which hinders him when finishing against contact.

More importantly, because Ariza always uses his speed when driving, rather than controlled skill, he gets tunnel vision, putting him in very awkward situations.

When skilled players drive to the basket, they maintain control and awareness of their surroundings, allowing them to recover if cut off.  Ariza goes full steam.  If cut off, since he can’t put on the breaks, he either flings up a prayer or awkwardly lofts out a bad pass back out to the perimeter.

It should be clear by now that Trevor Ariza does not have the tools be a go-to player.  On the year, he scored on only 33% of his isolation attempts.  While serving as the ball-handler in pick&roll situations, he scored only 29% of the time, and while posting up, he scored at only a 35% rate.

Perfect role player for this team

I still stand by this assertion.  My reason is because I was referring to the long-term big picture and Trevor’s role on a team with both Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady.

Ariza is struggling right now simply because he is not suited for his current role.  He’s just not skilled enough to have the responsibilities he currently has in this offense.

(At the same time, I don’t blame Rick for experimenting because this year is the only chance he will get for that.)

If Yao returns and another impact player is acquired, I do still think that Trevor can be a very productive role player for this team.  As I said earlier, Ariza is at his best when put in situations where he does not need to make decisions with the basketball.  If playing next to dominant offensive players, when the defense gives them heightened attention, Ariza can thrive by slashing to the hoop or spotting up.

If given the same amount of attention as his other four teammates and required to create on his own, as has been the case this year, Ariza is just not very good.  The results this year don’t exactly come as a shock.

As we saw, Trevor Ariza’s performance significantly improved after the trade for Kevin Martin.  This should not have come as a surprise.  As I had explained, because Martin can handle and create, his presence alters Ariza’s usage, allowing Trevor to slash, cut and play off the ball.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UR79z0FfC7w

The above clip illustrates slashing. See the difference with creating?

In those plays, when Ariza caught the ball, the defense was still rotating and was thus, off-balance.  In essence, the offensive situation provided Ariza with an advantage over his defender.

With his defender off-balance, he was able to catch, pump-fake if needed, and immediately make his move to the basket.  Unlike his problems against pressure, it didn’t matter that he was only using his speed/quickness because the defender was not set – counter-moves were not necessary.

In the first half of the year, because only Aaron Brooks could create, and none of our players regularly commanded double-teams, Trevor usually found himself facing a set defender upon receiving the ball.  But in the second half, with both Kevin Martin and Brooks doing the initial creating, forcing the defense to scramble, Ariza was able to catch and attack against off-balance defenders.

Slashing is where Trevor thrives because of his physical gifts.  We saw it last year with the Lakers.  With Yao likely to command double-teams next season, defenders will again need to rotate and help.  If they are slow to recover, Ariza can feast on their mistakes.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okI8hKTGEPw

The clip illustrates a cut. The man moves without the ball and is fed near the basket.  Trevor’s length and athleticism make him a dangerous cutter in Rick Adelman’s offense.  In fact, Ariza scored on 66% of his cutting opportunities.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sO9KmtXrcRA

The above clip shows that Trevor is actually very comfortable bringing the ball up.  He has natural form, unlike someone such as, for example, Shane Battier.  I think that, combined with the slashing Ariza displayed in the ’09 playoffs, seeing Ariza’s natural comfort in handling against little to no pressure is what led so many to assume he could also create. But of course, it’s a different animal against tight pressure.

Still, the ability should not be dismissed.  Many NBA small forwards are not comfortable bringing the ball down the court.  Playing what is essentially a backcourt of two shooting guards in Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin makes this ability of Trevor’s a boon because he can set the offense up if needed (not to be confused with creating for others) or, grab the rebound and take off in transition on his own.

This signing was a ’slam dunk’

Many have recently expressed their disappointment with the signing, stating that it was a blunder on Morey’s part.  I strongly disagree and still feel this was a very good signing.

We can all agree that Ariza has performed very poorly up to this point.  I personally think  his production will improve if/when the team personnel is upgraded (via Yao’s return or a trade), but let’s set even that aside.

Regardless of his actual production, this was a good signing simply because it gave the team another plus asset.  It doesn’t matter how poorly he performs – Ariza is just 24, earning just the league average, and has significant contributions to a title team on his resume.  He can easily be traded.

For his production, Trevor’s salary is great value.  At just 25 and due roughly $28million over the next four years, he is a plus-asset for potential trades.

Assessing Ariza

Trevor Ariza had a difficult first half, reflected in his mediocre eFG% (.460) and PER (13.3).  His overall USG% (21.2) underscores the peculiar nature of his first-half role.

USG% is an estimate of the % of plays used by a player while on the floor. See how Ariza compares to other swing-men. Click to enlarge.

But in the seven game stretch where he and Kevin Martin were both healthy and playing together in the starting lineup, when forced back into his natural role, we saw Ariza’s strengths on full display.

There is of course the contentious issue of his defense, something which will be the subject of a later installment.  But going forward, I feel validated in my earlier assertion that this was a great signing.

Sources:

• SynergySports
• Hoopshype
• Hoopdata

The post Assessing Ariza – Part 3 appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

Through Monday’s games, Ariza is now averaging 15.9ppg on 38% shooting (31% from 3), 5.6 rebounds per game, 3.7 assists per game, and 1.8 steals per game.

In Part 1, I had made three primary assertions:

• Trevor Ariza will never become a go-to option for a good team.
• Trevor Ariza is the perfect role player for this team.
• This signing was a slam dunk.

In addition to these primary assertions, I also want to revisit the other observations I had made in that November post.

I have compiled the statistics of Ariza thus far in 09/10, Ariza in 08/09, Shane Battier thus far in 09/10, Chase Budinger thus far in 09/10, and Josh Howard in 04/05.  I included the latter four as comparative reference points.

Revisiting Ariza’s 08/09 with the Lakers allows us to identify the areas of production which were impacted by his new role this season.

Battier and Budinger serve as convenient barometers to gauge Ariza’s production as they essentially fulfill roles identical to his on the Rockets.

As for Howard, in Part 1, I had identified the Dallas forward as a career best-case-scenario for Ariza:

“Similar to a Josh Howard, if evolved, I envision Ariza using his adequate handles to dribble around screens to pull up over his defender for mid-range jump-shots. Such an addition to his arsenal is not only reasonable and realistic, but would vastly amplify his overall offensive potency.”

I chose Howard’s 04/05 campaign because it was in that year that he was in a situation similar to Ariza’s, being given a significant role in his team’s offense for the first time.

*
The italicized points under each sub-category are my observations from Part 1.

Offensive Repertoire

No mid-range game; No post-up game; Some pull-up ability

No mid-range Game

Trevor Ariza 09/10 hot zones

As we can see, Trevor is shooting 33% from mid-range.  His accuracy is fairly decent from the left side, as he is 10-23 overall.  However, the majority of his shots from mid-range have come from the right side of the court where he has gone 15-49 for 31%.

Let’s take a look at Howard in ’05.

Josh Howard 04/05 hot zones

Howard shot 43% from mid-range, but was deadly from the left side with a 50% accuracy rate.

Trevor Ariza 08/09 hot zones

Trevor’s shot chart from last year doesn’t help much other than to confirm that his favorite spot inside the arc seems to be at the right elbow.

No post-up game

While he attempts it a lot, Trevor is very ineffective in the post.  He has a weak build and very poor footwork.  While backing his man down is clearly out of the question, Trevor also has not shown any capability to shoot out of the post-up, whether it be with a jump hook, fadeaway, or turnaround.

Ariza has had some success with a move in which he receives the ball in the post, faces up, steams forward in one direction, comes to a halt, and then dips under with the opposite hand.  I also do recall a few spin moves from the post which seemed somewhat promising.

Some pull-up ability

Trevor has shown hints of an ability to pull-up off the dribble in that he actually looks very comfortable and fluid in the motion.  He can dribble to his left and rise up over his defender with McGrady-esque form.  This observation was what had initially given me some hope for later development.

Unfortunately, while his form is impressive, there is very little accuracy.  In addition, he has no ability whatsoever to shoot while going to his right.  As I explained in Charting Kyle Lowry, it is the ability to shoot accurately while driving to the strong hand which I feel distinguishes the elite from the rest of the pack.

Overall, Ariza’s offensive repertoire is limited.  He tries everything but has very little success.

Finishing

Poor finisher in heavy traffic; Poor body control in mid air; Gets stuck in mid air with nowhere to go

Trevor is a poor finisher in heavy traffic.  From 82games, on close shots – shots defined as close to the basket, but not dunks – he is shooting only 42%.  There is no data for Howard’s ’05, but this season, Josh is shooting 63% on close shots.

Trevor finishes poorly because he does not have the strength to absorb contact nor the ability to contort his body in mid air to avoid the shot-blocker.

Ariza’s saving grace is his athleticism.  If given a clear path to the hoop against a rotating defense, he can swoop through for the flush.  This is why Trevor thrives as a slasher.  When put in situations where he doesn’t have to make decisions, Trevor can be very good.

Passing

Poor passer off the dribble

ast% is an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while on the floor

We can see that Trevor has by far the highest ast% of the group.

However:

usg% is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while on the floor

The chart shows that other than the rookie Budinger, Trevor also has a much higher usg% than any of the other subjects.

Despite his 3.7 assists per game, Trevor is not a good passer.  Much of this production is inflated by the system in which he plays.  The Rockets’ is an offense predicated upon ball-movement and Trevor is one of the primary handlers.  Naturally, as an NBA player, he is capable of making the routine pass to open teammates.  However, Ariza has demonstrated no ability to create for others or even find them in scoring position if he himself is put in a tight spot.  Even worse, Trevor is also an unwilling passer.  It has become routine to see him get stuck in awkward positions and, rather than passing out to a teammate, fling an off-balanced, contested jumper.

Ball Handling

Struggles with cross-over dribble against tight pressure; Can dribble
sufficiently; Can drive in both directions and change directions when not facing tight pressure

tov% is an estimate of turnovers per 100 plays

We can see from the chart that Ariza has the highest tov% amongst those listed.

However, Trevor is an adequate ball-handler.  He can bring the ball up situationally and also dribble with either hand in either direction against light pressure.  This is what makes him dangerous as a slasher.  If facing an off-balance defense, he has the capability to weave and change directions to get to the rim.

Trevor’s problems come when facing tight pressure.  Unable to evade the defender, he routinely picks up his dribble.  His poor footwork also compounds his problems as his feet often slide from under him when he comes to a stop.

Slashing role players need to use their speed and quickness to get to the rim against rotating defenses.  Elite players can advance through evasion and are not dependent upon their defender’s positioning.  Ariza simply has no ability to make counter moves against defensive pressure.  This is precisely why it was so preposterous that some actually claimed/thought he was brought in as a go-to option for this team.

Shooting

Deadly shooter

ts% is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account 2-point field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws; eFG% is simply a statistic which adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth more than a 2-point field goal

We can see that I was wrong when I described Ariza as a “deadly shooter.”  Looking at the numbers, he has by far the lowest shooting accuracy out of any of the players.

However, it would be unfair to characterize Ariza as an intrinsically bad shooter.  Ariza’s accuracy was much higher in 08/09 with the Lakers.  This would obviously be because the majority of his shots were uncontested set-shots.

While I don’t have any hard data to support this claim, I think most would agree that in Houston, not only have his shots been contested, but a significant proportion of them have come on the move, while off the dribble.

For this reason, I do still have hope for Trevor’s shooting.  If his usage can be limited to spot-up shooting and slashing, and if playing next to a dominant focal point such as Yao, I do expect Trevor’s efficiency to increase.

Rebounding

“Out-of-space” rebounder

In Part 1, I defined Ariza as an “out-of-space rebounder”, or, falling in “that category of player that can grab loose balls and long rebounds.”

drb% is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor

orb%is an estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor

trb%is an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor

While Ariza fares comparably on the defensive glass, Howard was much more dangerous crashing the offensive boards.

However, Ariza’s orb% last season was over double that of what it is this year.  For this reason, I don’t think it’s fair to attribute his drop in rebounding production this year to inability.  The more likely explanation is Ariza’s new role with the Rockets.  He has more ball handling duties and is involved directly in more plays, robbing him of opportunities to scramble off the ball.

However, as this is all speculative, I will refrain from passing further judgment on Ariza’s rebounding.

Defense

Good defender; Plays passing lanes well

stl% is defined as an estimate of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by the player while he was on the floor

Nothing unusual here as Ariza is currently #10 in the league in the steals department.

However, this may come as a surprise:

DRtg is an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions

To be more precise, DRtg for individual players is an estimate for their individual contribution towards their team’s defensive efficiency.  It is based purely on box score statistics and does not distinguish how many points are allowed specifically with the player on the floor.  It would be foolish to draw any conclusions from Ariza’s 105 vs. Battier’s 108 because the former is given credit for steals and rebounds.

In watching him this year, I no longer think Ariza is a good defender.

The issue of Ariza’s defense is controversial.  Steals are not indicative of man-to-man defensive ability.  In Ariza’s case, his teammates are left to scramble to cover for him when he fails to come up with the steal.  I personally feel that the conservative approach of Shane Battier is far more beneficial to a team’s defense.

With that said, there is merit to the counter-argument.  Trevor’s approach may help the team because they need to create chaos in order to have success.  Because the ‘bigs’ rotate so well, the damage from his failed gambles may not be so harmful.  Hoop Numbers shows that Ariza was in the top percentile in impacting forced turnovers against the opposition last year.  It could be the case that the pressure he applies more than offsets its negatives.

Other Thoughts

• Ariza is not a part of any of any of the team’s top three most efficient offensive units.

on court/off court stats

• The above is interesting because it seems to indicate that the team is much better with Trevor off the floor.  However, this would be one of those cases when statistics become ‘damn lies.’  It is well known that the Rockets’ starters, as a group, struggle, and that their bench often outscores opponents by wide margins.

• Moreso than a lack of skill, Ariza’s greatest weakness is overall poor judgment and a complete lack of awareness of his surroundings.  He routinely picks up his dribble, gets stuck in mid air with no escape route, and dribbles himself into awkward situations.  But worst of all is the sense of overconfidence which he exudes on a nightly basis: he almost seems to have a mindset that passing out to an open teammate after getting trapped and picking up his dribble would be an admission of failure.

*

Part 1 Assertions

Will never become a go-to player on a good team

The belief by many fans prior to the season that Ariza could become a go-to player for the Rockets was so preposterous that it was beyond maddening.  I don’t think I need to spend any more time here re-establishing my assertion.  Anyone who has watched more than two games all year can recognize that Trevor Ariza is not a go-to player.  He can’t create.  Without that, it can’t be done.

clutch statistics

Furthermore, Ariza is now shooting 27% from the field in the 4th/OT when there is less than 5 minutes left and neither team is ahead by more than 5 points.

Perfect role player for this team

I still stand by this assertion.  My reason is because I was referring to the long-term big picture and Trevor’s role on a team with both Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady.

Ariza is struggling right now simply because he is not suited for his current role.  He’s just not skilled enough to have the responsibilities he currently has in this offense.

(At the same time, I don’t blame Rick for experimenting because this year is the only chance he will get for that.)

If Yao returns and another impact player is acquired, I do still think that Trevor can be a very productive role player for this team.  As I said earlier, Ariza is at his best when put in situations where he does not need to make decisions with the basketball.  If playing next to dominant offensive players, when the defense gives them heightened attention, Ariza can thrive by slashing to the hoop or spotting up.

If given the same amount of attention as his other four teammates and required to create on his own, as has been the case this year, Ariza is just not very good.  The results this year don’t exactly come as a shock.

This signing was a ‘slam dunk’

Many have recently expressed their disappointment with the signing, stating that it was a blunder on Morey’s part.  I strongly disagree and still feel this was a very good signing.

We can all agree that Ariza has performed very poorly up to this point.  I personally think  his production will improve if/when the team personnel is upgraded (via Yao’s return or a trade), but let’s set even that aside.

Regardless of his actual production, this was a good signing simply because it gave the team another plus asset.  It doesn’t matter how poorly he performs – Ariza is just 24, earning just the league average, and has significant contributions to a title team on his resume.  He can easily be traded.

An acquisition is not just judged by on-court outcomes.  It still has value if it can be easily passed on for something else.  That’s the case with Ariza.

The post Assessing Ariza – Part 2 appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

During the Houston Rockets’ home opener at Toyota Center, I counted five total possessions in which Trevor Ariza attempted to attack his defender off the dribble while squared up in a one-on-one scenario.

These were:

•Roughly the 3 minute mark in the 1st: He attempted to change directions, was unsuccessful, and had to pick up his dribble and pass.

•Roughly the 2 minute mark in the 2nd: He faked left and drove right, banking in an incredibly awkward jumper.

•Roughly the 2 minute mark of the 3rd: He faked right and drove baseline towards his left, lost body control and threw a bad pass, resulting in a turnover.

•Roughly the 7 minute mark in the 4th: He dribbled right, and spun back left, got trapped, and was bailed out by Greg Oden. This resulted in two free throws.

•Roughly the 5 minute mark in the 4th: He squared up and drove baseline left, resulting in a layup + foul.

While three of these possessions were technically ‘successful’, for analytical purposes, I think one would agree that on two of these circumstances, Ariza was the beneficiary of some incredibly good luck. The bank off the glass was extremely awkward and not reflective of any ability to pull up for the mid-range jumper.

Similarly, the possession against Oden was not a premeditated pump fake bait, as is utilized by many perimeter players, but rather a situation where Trevor Ariza simply got bailed out by a very undisciplined defender after losing his dribble. Only the baseline drive against Brandon Roy can be classified as a successful attack possession.

The aforementioned sequences are noteworthy in that they illustrate Ariza’s overall inability to create off the dribble in a one-on-one scenario. Two of the three situations in which he was technically ‘successful’ were not indicative of any actual ability with future predictive significance.

Why This is Relevant

Based on comments during the offseason, following his preseason struggles, and following the excitement of Saturday’s game, it is clear that there are extant expectations regarding Trevor Ariza which are incredibly unrealistic. If not reined in, this unbridled enthusiasm could quickly spiral into serious disappointment.

I found myself cringing last night as Bill and Clyde proffered their analysis during Ariza’s ongoing breakout performance. They mused about his potential to become “the man” and a “go-to scorer”. The entire episode was exemplary of the media’s role in perpetuating a set of highly misguided assumptions and misconceptions which have raised the expectations for Trevor Ariza to such unrealistic, unattainable heights.

Trevor Ariza will never become a primary ‘go-to’ option for a good team. This is simply due to the fact that he cannot create off the dribble and most likely will never develop this ability. He is a ‘slasher’, not a ‘creator’.

That a perimeter player can almost never be considered a primary ‘go-to’ scorer without the ability to create off the dribble is so axiomatic that it should be taken as a fundamental truth.

Trevor Ariza’s Other Weaknesses:

In addition to his inability to create, Ariza also:

•Is a poor finisher in heavy traffic
•Is a poor passer off the dribble
•Has poor body control in mid-air
•Often gets stuck in mid-air with nowhere to go
•Has not demonstrated any semblance of a mid-range game
•Struggles with the cross-over dribble against tight pressure defense
•Has no semblance of a post-up game

This above evaluation is not intended as an indictment of Ariza or even a value judgment of his worth as a player. This full disclosure is simply intended for the purpose of assessing the player’s capabilities and definitively debunking the preposterous prognostications currently in circulation regarding Ariza’s future potential and expected growth trajectory.

Trevor Ariza’s Current Play and Random Musings

Two things I have found to be both peculiar and of some interest:

1. Ariza was actually bringing the ball up as the point guard for a few possessions on Saturday night. He certainly has sufficient handles for this task, but unfortunately, as delineated already, not enough of a handle to do much more on his own once in the half-court.

This was of great interest as it is clear that Rick Adelman is in experimentation mode for this season. My sense is that there is a desire to play Aaron Brooks off of the ball in late game situations.

One must also assume that the staff, in order to assess the limits of Trevor’s potential, is hoping to throw before him as many challenges as possible. While I personally have assigned a ceiling to his potential, I also do feel that it is important to ascertain the limits of each player’s capabilities. This is the year for experimentation.

2. I found it awfully humorous to see Ariza actually attempt to post up on numerous possessions in the first two games. Obviously, nothing came of this as he does not have the footwork to maneuver from such a stance. The notion was interesting though as it really confirms the above points regarding Adelman’s mindset.

I think the coaching staff wants to give Ariza everything he can handle and let him determine his own destiny. On the basis of what I have seen in the tasks they are laying before him, it almost seems that the staff is treating Ariza like a high growth potential prospect. They want to give him every opportunity to develop as a player.

In addition, while Ariza has been struggling with turnovers and in finishing at the basket, I do expect improvement in these areas as the season progresses, and certainly upon the return of McGrady and Yao (if both healthy). Ariza has clearly been pressing in his new and expanded role.

Trevor Ariza is the Perfect Role Player for the Houston Rockets.

Aside from its analytical utility, identifying Ariza’s inherent limitations serves to reveal and underscore the talents which he does possess and aids in the formation of realistic expectations.

Make no mistake, for the MLE, this signing was an absolute slam dunk and seems to be even better value than even I had initially concluded.

Trevor Ariza’s Capabilities:

•Good defender – I have based this on Daryl Morey’s comment that Ariza is a top 5 wing defender as well as upon Trevor’s reputation. I personally do not have large enough of a sample size to draw a conclusion on his abilities in this area, especially when 1 of the 3 games thus far includes a torching at the hands of Brandon Roy.

•Plays the passing lanes well – Not only does he get steals but he has the athleticism and speed to finish at the other end.

•Deadly shooter – It is becoming clear that his performance from last year’s playoffs was no fluke. Small sample size thus far, but Trevor is looking nearly automatic from long range.

•Some hints of pull-up ability – While we haven’t yet seen a mid-range game, we have seen Ariza attempt pull-up 3’s off the dribble. While not yet there, this shows that the capability for development of a mid-range pull-up game is there.

•Can dribble sufficiently – While he can’t break down a defender off the dribble, he is capable of comfortably handling the ball against light pressure and even bringing it up in certain situations.

•Can drive in both directions and change directions when not facing tight pressure – Trevor Ariza does have handles. This isn’t Luther Head or Shandon Anderson we are discussing. He can dribble well with both hands and can even cross over and change directions. However, as established, his problem is dribbling against tight pressure and breaking down the defender.

•Very good ‘slasher’

•“Out of space” rebounder -Aiza is what I would define as an “out of space” rebounder. This is that category of player that can grab loose balls and long rebounds. The Houston Rockets have not had this type of player in this current era and it is my contention that this is one of the primary causes of our postseason struggles in past years. We simply got beat to too many loose balls by more athletic teams with more athletic players.

What intrigues me the most about Ariza are the early hints of the pull-up jumper in its infancy stages. This is the one big area in Ariza’s game where one can realistically hope for major development. We saw the awkward pull-up bank shot against Portland which wasn’t really reflective of anything but luck. However, he has really surprised me with his fluidity in pulling up for 3′s off the dribble. While he hasn’t made them, his form and comfort level shows that there is potential for growth in this area.

Trevor has sufficient handles, athleticism, size, and shooting touch to really develop this facet of his offensive game. Similar to a Josh Howard, if evolved, I envision Ariza using his adequate handles to dribble around screens to pull up over his defender for mid-range jump-shots. Such an addition to his arsenal is not only reasonable and realistic, but would vastly amplify his overall offensive potency.

Most importantly, one can certainly expect Ariza’s effectiveness to increase when/if playing next to a healthy Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. There is currently no strong side offensive focal point on the court to capture the attention of the opposing defense. Each of our players is drawing equal attention thus mitigating Trevor’s ability to ‘slash‘. A healthy McGrady/Yao would put increased pressure on the defense allowing Ariza to feast on slowly rotating defenders.

Concluding Thoughts

Trevor Ariza will most likely never be an All-Star or even a consistent ‘go-to’ scoring option. If we accept this and restrain our expectations, we can really appreciate this signing for its true worth.

Ariza has the room for growth to become a very lethal role player. At the time of the signing, I had put his ceiling at 15ppg. Upon seeing him, while I don’t expect such output, I actually don’t think it is completely out of the realm of possibility that he could average 18-20ppg in this offense.

However, this production will come similarly to that of the prototypical ‘super’-role player, Shawn Marion, in that it will be through feeding off of other players and in playing within the team’s offense.

It is highly unlikely that Trevor Ariza ever becomes a guy to whom one can merely hand the ball and ask to go to work against his defender.

But that’s ok.

We don’t need him for that.

He will have many more nights like Saturday where he explodes offensively. That will lead many to ask for and expect more.

That should not be the case.

At his salary, if he continues to do what he has been proven to be capable of, this signing seems to be yet another absolute steal for Daryl Morey.

Fans should recognize that if merely accepted for what he is, at his age, with his size, and existing skillset, Trevor Ariza is a tremendous building block for this franchise heading forward.

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