{"id":22906,"date":"2025-12-08T11:37:37","date_gmt":"2025-12-08T15:37:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/rivian-stock-plunges-after-morgan-stanleys-brutal-12-call-but-the-r2-launchs-true-challenge-is-far-worse-than-the-price-target-reveals\/"},"modified":"2025-12-08T11:37:50","modified_gmt":"2025-12-08T15:37:50","slug":"38248-rivian-stock-slumps-as-morgan-stanley-downgrades-to-underweight-citing-r2-launch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/38248-rivian-stock-slumps-as-morgan-stanley-downgrades-to-underweight-citing-r2-launch\/","title":{"rendered":"Rivian stock plunges after Morgan Stanley’s brutal $12 call, but the R2 launch’s true challenge is far worse than the price target reveals"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rivian stock<\/b> took a beating on December 8, 2025, after Morgan Stanley<\/b> downgraded the EV maker from Equal Weight to Underweight. The downgrade reflects serious concerns about Rivian’s<\/b> upcoming R2 launch and the company’s ability to compete amid a challenging EV market.<\/p>\n

\n

\ud83d\udd25 Quick Facts<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco<\/b> downgraded Rivian<\/b> to Underweight with a $12 price target, representing 33% downside from current levels<\/li>\n
  • The downgrade follows the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit<\/b> and a sharp slowdown in electric vehicle adoption<\/li>\n
  • Rivian faces outsized risk<\/b> as it prepares to launch its affordable R2 SUV in early 2026<\/b> into a weakened market<\/li>\n
  • Morgan Stanley forecasts Rivian<\/b> will post a $2.9 billion adjusted EBIT loss in 2026 and burn through $4.2 billion in free cash flow<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

    Morgan Stanley’s Harsh View on R2 Launch Timing<\/h2>\n

    Andrew Percoco<\/b>, Morgan Stanley’s<\/b> new automotive analyst, believes Rivian’s<\/b> lower-priced R2<\/b> launch arrives at the worst possible time. The SUV<\/b> was originally positioned as a breakthrough product that could challenge Tesla’s Model Y and drive mainstream EV adoption.<\/p>\n

    However, Percoco<\/b> argues that launching into a market plagued by what analysts call an EV “hangover” creates unprecedented challenges. The loss of the federal $7,500 tax credit<\/b> removed a key incentive for cost-conscious buyers, and consumer interest in EVs has visibly cooled since the tax credit expired.<\/p>\n

    The EV Market’s Perfect Storm for Rivian<\/h2>\n

    The broader EV market environment remains deeply challenged. Battery-electric vehicle sales<\/b> in November 2025 were forecast to drop to 5.3% market share<\/b>, attributed to the “hangover effect” and dwindling inventory, according to S&P Global Mobility<\/b>. October saw EV sales collapse<\/b> by over 57%<\/b> compared to September’s gold rush of buyers rushing to take advantage of the last tax credit before it expired.<\/p>\n

    Rivian<\/b> also faces persistent headwinds from slowing adoption<\/b>, loss of tax credits, and high monthly financing costs<\/b> for consumers. The company’s luxury flagship vehicles can’t sustain growth alone, making the R2<\/b> critical\u2014but launching it now feels too risky to Morgan Stanley.<\/b><\/p>\n

    Rivian’s Financial Outlook Deteriorates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Financial Metric<\/td>\nForecast (2026)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Adjusted EBIT Loss<\/td>\n$2.9 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Free Cash Flow Burn<\/td>\n$4.2 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Morgan Stanley Price Target<\/td>\n$12.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Downside Potential<\/td>\n33% from current levels<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

    Morgan Stanley’s<\/b> financial projections suggest Rivian<\/b> will need significant cash reserves to weather the capital-intensive R2 launch. The combination of massive losses and substantial free cash flow burn puts pressure on Rivian’s<\/b> balance sheet and raises questions about long-term viability without additional funding.<\/p>\n

    Broader Auto Industry Reshuffling at Morgan Stanley<\/h2>\n

    Percoco<\/b> didn’t stop with Rivian.<\/b> He downgraded Lucid Automotive<\/b> to Sell, citing similar risks, and cut Tesla<\/b> to Equal Weight from Overweight on valuation concerns. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley<\/b> upgraded General Motors<\/b> to Buy, reflecting Percoco’s<\/b> view that traditional automakers with hybrid strategies are better positioned for the choppy market ahead.<\/p>\n

    Percoco<\/b> forecasts fewer than 16 million new cars<\/b> will be sold in the U.S. next year, down roughly 1% from 2025 levels. This cautious outlook suggests the broader auto market has entered a normalization phase after years of strong demand.<\/p>\n

    What This Means for Rivian Stock Investors and the EV Industry?<\/h2>\n

    The Morgan Stanley<\/b> downgrade signals deepening concerns about Rivian’s<\/b> ability to achieve profitable scale. While the company has momentum with its R1T<\/b> and R1S<\/b> luxury vehicles, they don’t generate the unit volumes needed to reach profitability. The R2<\/b> was always the critical make-or-break moment\u2014but Percoco<\/b> believes Rivian<\/b> is launching into headwinds, not tailwinds.<\/p>\n

    Investors should watch whether Rivian<\/b> can prove skeptics wrong by finding strong demand for the R2<\/b> despite the challenged EV market. The $45,000 starting price<\/b> is aggressive, but execution in 2026 will be paramount. For now, Morgan Stanley<\/b> sees more downside risk than upside potential.<\/p>\n

    Sources<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • Investing.com<\/b> – Morgan Stanley downgrade coverage<\/li>\n
    • Barron’s<\/b> – Automotive analyst coverage and ratings<\/li>\n
    • InsideEVs<\/b> – EV market slowdown analysis<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":22905,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"schema_org_data":"{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Place\",\"name\":\"United States\",\"description\":\"country\"}]}","_extracted_celebrities":"","_extracted_movies":"","_extracted_places":null,"_extracted_videos":"","_last_enrichment_date":"2025-12-08 11:38:04","footnotes":""},"categories":[391],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-finance","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33"],"yoast_head":"\nRivian stock plunges after Morgan Stanley's brutal $12 call, but the R2 launch's true challenge is far worse than the price target reveals<\/title>\n<meta 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