{"id":17540,"date":"2025-11-22T20:10:06","date_gmt":"2025-11-23T00:10:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/north-texas-favored-to-crush-rice-with-87-win-probability-17-5-point-spread-nov-22\/"},"modified":"2025-11-22T20:10:24","modified_gmt":"2025-11-23T00:10:24","slug":"31032-north-texas-favored-to-crush-rice-with-87-win-probability-17-5-point-spread-nov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/31032-north-texas-favored-to-crush-rice-with-87-win-probability-17-5-point-spread-nov\/","title":{"rendered":"North Texas favored to crush Rice with 87% win probability, 17.5-point spread Nov 22"},"content":{"rendered":"

North Texas<\/b> walks into this matchup as a massive favorite. The #22-ranked Mean Green<\/b> sit at 9-1<\/b> this season. Rice<\/b> has struggled at 5-5<\/b>. Oddsmakers are backing the hype with North Texas -17.5<\/b> on the spread.<\/p>\n

\n

\ud83d\udd25 Quick Facts:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Kickoff:<\/b> Nov. 22, 2025<\/b> at 7:30 PM ET<\/b> from Rice Stadium in Houston<\/li>\n
  • Spread:<\/b> North Texas -17.5<\/b> with 87% win probability<\/b> projection<\/li>\n
  • Records:<\/b> North Texas 9-1<\/b> (ranked #22) vs Rice 5-5<\/b> (unranked)<\/li>\n
  • Series History:<\/b> North Texas leads 8-5<\/b> in all-time matchups<\/li>\n
  • Conference:<\/b> Both teams competing in the American Athletic Conference<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

    Head-to-Head: North Texas Dominates Recent Meetings<\/h2>\n

    Here’s where things get lopsided. North Texas is 6-1<\/b> against Rice<\/b> on the moneyline since 2016<\/b>. The Mean Green have simply owned this rivalry over the past decade. Looking at the all-time series, North Texas leads 8-5<\/b> overall. But the recent trend tells a clearer story—dominance.<\/p>\n

    In their last 10 matchups<\/b>, the Mean Green have gone 7-3<\/b>, including a win in October 2013<\/b> through November 2022<\/b>. North Texas<\/b> also covers the spread frequently. The sportsbooks know this history. That’s why they’re asking for nearly 18 points<\/b> of spread cushion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Metric<\/b><\/th>\nNorth Texas<\/b><\/th>\nRice<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    Overall Record<\/b><\/td>\n9-1<\/b><\/td>\n5-5<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Conference Record<\/b><\/td>\n5-1<\/b> AAC<\/td>\n2-4<\/b> AAC<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Spread\/Moneyline<\/b><\/td>\n6-1<\/b> (since 2016)<\/td>\nUnderdogs<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    All-Time H2H<\/b><\/td>\n8 Wins<\/b><\/td>\n5 Wins<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Current Rankings<\/b><\/td>\n#22 AP Poll<\/b><\/td>\nUnranked<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    Form Analysis: North Texas in Elite Shape<\/h2>\n

    North Texas<\/b> has been nothing short of dominant lately. At 9-1<\/b>, they’ve earned their #22 ranking<\/b>—the team’s first AP Poll appearance since 1959<\/b>. That’s historic. The Mean Green are playing winning football with dangerous offensive weapons. Key threat Wyatt Young<\/b> has 48 receptions<\/b> for the season, making him a security blanket for quarterback Drew Mestemaker<\/b>.<\/p>\n

    Rice<\/b>, meanwhile, sits at 5-5<\/b> with real bowl eligibility concerns. In their last matchups, Rice<\/b> lost to Memphis 38-14<\/b> and beat UConn 37-34<\/b> in double overtime. That inconsistency screams “upset alert prevention.” The Owls are struggling to string together wins in AAC play where they’re 2-4<\/b>. North Texas<\/b> is 5-1<\/b> in conference. That’s a massive gap.<\/p>\n

    Key Players & Tactical Matchups<\/h2>\n

    This comes down to talent disparity. Drew Mestemaker<\/b> at quarterback for North Texas<\/b> has been a revelation. A redshirt freshman who walked on without big recruiting stars, he’s posting record-setting numbers. His arm talent plus Wyatt Young<\/b>‘s receiving ability creates matchup nightmares. Rice<\/b> quarterback Cole Jenkins<\/b> has been inconsistent. He’s thrown 100 yards<\/b> recently in losses and struggled to manage games consistently.<\/p>\n

    Defensively, North Texas<\/b> has been solid. Rice’s<\/b> offense ranks lower in the conference. When you combine elite offense against weaker defense, you get blowout potential. That 87% win probability<\/b> starts making sense real quick.<\/p>\n

    What Could Go Wrong for North Texas?<\/h2>\n

    North Texas<\/b> isn’t immune to bad games. Here’s what matters: Are the Mean Green looking ahead to bowl games? Will they overlook a struggling team? Those mental lapses happen in college football. Rice<\/b> plays at home in Houston, which provides some advantage. Humidity and field familiarity matter in November games. But honestly, the talent gap feels insurmountable.<\/p>\n

    The weather could impact passing games. If North Texas<\/b> gets slowed down, Rice<\/b> might steal a quarter or two. Still, 9-1<\/b> don’t play 5-5<\/b> close games often. The 17.5-point spread<\/b> seems realistic given the form, talent, and motivation levels here.<\/p>\n

    Does North Texas Cover the Full Spread?<\/h2>\n

    Stats suggest yes. North Texas<\/b> has been covering games against inferior competition. Rice<\/b> gives up points in chunks. When defenses are porous and offenses are loaded, spreads get smashed. Look for North Texas<\/b> to pressure early, build a lead, and potentially put this away by halftime. The 87% projection<\/b> reflects Vegas confidence. All the data points one direction here—should North Texas<\/b> show up ready to play, covering becomes likely.<\/p>\n

    Sources<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • ESPN<\/b> – College Football Schedule and Team Statistics<\/li>\n
    • ActionNetwork<\/b> – North Texas vs Rice Prediction and Odds<\/li>\n
    • Sports-Reference<\/b> – Historical Head-to-Head Records<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":17539,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"schema_org_data":"{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Wyatt Young\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.themoviedb.org\/person\/4671405\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Drew Mestemaker\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Cole Jenkins\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.themoviedb.org\/person\/2045694\"]},{\"@type\":\"Place\",\"name\":\"Rice Stadium\",\"description\":\"venue\"},{\"@type\":\"Place\",\"name\":\"Houston\",\"description\":\"city\"}]}","_extracted_celebrities":null,"_extracted_movies":"","_extracted_places":null,"_extracted_videos":"","_last_enrichment_date":"2025-11-22 20:10:37","footnotes":""},"categories":[188],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sport","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33"],"yoast_head":"\nNorth Texas favored to crush Rice with 87% win probability, 17.5-point spread Nov 22<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/31032-north-texas-favored-to-crush-rice-with-87-win-probability-17-5-point-spread-nov\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"North Texas favored to crush Rice with 87% win probability, 17.5-point spread Nov 22\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"…\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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