{"id":17538,"date":"2025-11-22T20:08:50","date_gmt":"2025-11-23T00:08:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/maple-leafs-favored-over-canadiens-with-1-0-edge-in-season-series-but-canadiens-dobes-stellar-form-keeps-it-close\/"},"modified":"2025-11-22T20:09:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-23T00:09:09","slug":"83156-maple-leafs-favored-over-canadiens-with-1-0-edge-in-season-series-but-canadiens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/83156-maple-leafs-favored-over-canadiens-with-1-0-edge-in-season-series-but-canadiens\/","title":{"rendered":"Maple Leafs favored over Canadiens with 1-0 edge in season series, but Canadiens&#8217; Dobes&#8217; stellar form keeps it close"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style='font-size: 1.1em;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.6'>The <b>Toronto Maple Leafs<\/b> hold a <b>1-0 edge<\/b> in their season series against the <b>Montreal Canadiens<\/b>. But <b>Jakub Dobes&#8217;<\/b> stellar goaltending has Montreal firmly in contention. Saturday&#8217;s showdown at <b>Bell Centre<\/b> promises fireworks between these division rivals.<\/p>\n<div style='background-color: #f8f9fa;border-left: 4px solid #e74c3c;padding: 15px;margin: 20px 0'>\n<p style='margin: 0;font-weight: 600'>\ud83d\udd25 Quick Facts:<\/p>\n<ul style='margin: 10px 0 0 0;padding-left: 20px'>\n<li><b>Maple Leafs<\/b> are <b>9-1<\/b> moneyline winners vs Montreal since <b>2025<\/b> season began<\/li>\n<li><b>Dobes<\/b> boasts a <b>6-2-2<\/b> record with <b>2.96 GAA<\/b> and <b>.892 save percentage<\/b> so far<\/li>\n<li><b>Canadiens<\/b> sit <b>10-7-3<\/b> with <b>23 points<\/b> entering tonight&#8217;s game<\/li>\n<li><b>Leafs<\/b> at <b>9-9-3<\/b> with <b>21 points<\/b> fighting for playoff positioning<\/li>\n<li>Moneyline favors <b>Montreal<\/b> at <b>-135<\/b>, while <b>Toronto<\/b> is <b>+110 underdog<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Maple Leafs Hold Edge But Dobes Keeps It Tight<\/h2>\n<p>Toronto absolutely dominates this matchup on paper. The <b>Leafs<\/b> are <b>4-1<\/b> against the <b>Canadiens<\/b> in moneyline betting this season. And they&#8217;re <b>9-1<\/b> overall since October when factoring in all matchups. They showed up twice already this year. Toronto won <b>1-0 in OT<\/b> on <b>April 12<\/b> back in spring.<\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t sleep on Montreal though. <b>Dobes<\/b> has been nothing short of electric. Early in October, he posted a <b>6-0-0<\/b> record with a <b>1.97 goals-against average<\/b> and a <b>.930 save percentage<\/b>. He&#8217;s the <b>10th rookie goalie in NHL history<\/b> to earn stardom this fast. Since then? He&#8217;s cooled slightly. But that resilience matters.<\/p>\n<p>The <b>Canadiens<\/b> actually started the season strong. They finished September-October at <b>10-7-3<\/b> with <b>23 points<\/b>. Toronto? They&#8217;re struggling. <b>9-9-3<\/b> with only <b>21 points<\/b>. So much for being favored. Regular season dominance doesn&#8217;t always translate when temperatures drop.<\/p>\n<h2>Head-To-Head: Why The Maple Leafs Own This Series<\/h2>\n<p>Look at the numbers. <b>Toronto<\/b> was <b>3-1<\/b> against Montreal last season. They had <b>1-0 lead<\/b> already this year. That <b>win on April 12<\/b> in overtime should tell you something. The <b>Leafs<\/b> find ways to close out these games.<\/p>\n<p>Toronto&#8217;s recent dominance is staggering. The team is <b>9-1<\/b> on the moneyline over the last <b>10 meetings<\/b> combined with Montreal. They&#8217;re <b>4-0<\/b> in their last four head-to-heads. That&#8217;s the kind of edge that makes bettors nervous for the underdog crowd.<\/p>\n<p>But here&#8217;s the curveball. <b>Dobes&#8217;<\/b> performance shifts the narrative. Early season numbers showed him leading the league in <b>high-danger save percentage at .918<\/b> (minimum four games). He also ranked <b>second in 5-on-5 save percentage at .959<\/b> behind nobody. That&#8217;s peak goaltending.<\/p>\n<h2>Goalie Battle: Dobes Rising vs. Toronto&#8217;s Depth<\/h2>\n<table style='width: 100%;border-collapse: collapse;margin: 20px 0'>\n<thead>\n<tr style='background-color: #f0f0f0'>\n<th style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px;text-align: left'><b>Stat<\/b><\/th>\n<th style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px;text-align: left'><b>Dobes (MTL)<\/b><\/th>\n<th style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px;text-align: left'><b>TOR Starters<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px'><b>Wins<\/b><\/td>\n<td style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px'><b>6<\/b> (early season)<\/td>\n<td style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px'>Rotating options<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px'><b>Goals-Against Avg<\/b><\/td>\n<td style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px'><b>2.96<\/b> (recent)<\/td>\n<td style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px'>League average<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px'><b>Save Percentage<\/b><\/td>\n<td style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px'><b>.892<\/b> overall<\/td>\n<td style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px'>Below Dobes level<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px'><b>Recent Form<\/b><\/td>\n<td style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px'>Dipped in November<\/td>\n<td style='border: 1px solid #ddd;padding: 10px'>Mixed results<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><b>Jakub Dobes<\/b> carries Montreal on his back. Early stats were absolutely elite. His <b>1.77 GAA in five games<\/b> was <b>.940 save percentage<\/b>\u2014near-perfect territory. Losses in recent weeks have hurt those numbers. He&#8217;s <b>0-2-2 in his last four<\/b>, allowing <b>16 goals on 89 shots<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p>Post Tuesday night&#8217;s <b>4-3 shootout loss<\/b> to Columbus, Dobes made <b>20 saves on 23 shots<\/b>. He&#8217;s still battling. The dip matters. Fall form doesn&#8217;t guarantee Saturday performance. But this is exactly when young goalies prove themselves. Bounce-back moments define careers.<\/p>\n<h2>What To Watch For Heading Into Tonight<\/h2>\n<ul style='margin: 20px 0;padding-left: 20px'>\n<li>Will <b>Dobes<\/b> get back to elite form after dropping four straight?<\/li>\n<li>Can <b>Toronto&#8217;s<\/b> offensive firepower overwhelm Montreal early?<\/li>\n<li><b>Leafs<\/b> are <b>3.43 goals per game<\/b> scorers but allow <b>3.67<\/b> against<\/li>\n<li><b>Montreal<\/b> sits at <b>23 points<\/b> vs <b>Toronto&#8217;s 21<\/b>\u2014tighter than the narrative suggests<\/li>\n<li>Playoff implications: Both teams fighting for postseason positioning.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Which Team Advances The Narrative Saturday Night?<\/h2>\n<p>Toronto comes in as moneyline favorites at <b>-135 odds<\/b> versus Montreal&#8217;s <b>+110<\/b>. That&#8217;s meaningful. The market respects the <b>Leafs&#8217;<\/b> dominance in this series. And rightfully so. But sports rarely respect historical trends for <b>60 minutes<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p><b>Dobes<\/b> changed Montreal&#8217;s trajectory. Yes, November has been rough. But he&#8217;s still the <b>24-year-old Czech goalie<\/b> who started the season <b>6-0-0<\/b>. Youth bounces back. Veterans know better. Toronto&#8217;s older core should exploit early chances. But if Montreal tightens defensively? This becomes a goaltending duel.<\/p>\n<p>The <b>Canadiens<\/b> entered November strong. The <b>Leafs<\/b> continue struggling despite higher talent. Which narrative wins? Toronto&#8217;s pedigree or Montreal&#8217;s momentum? Your answer probably depends on whether you believe in <b>Dobes&#8217;<\/b> October excellence or his recent November fade.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":17537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"schema_org_data":"{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Place\",\"name\":\"Bell Centre\",\"description\":\"venue\"},{\"@type\":\"Place\",\"name\":\"Montreal\",\"description\":\"city\"},{\"@type\":\"Place\",\"name\":\"Toronto\",\"description\":\"city\"},{\"@type\":\"Place\",\"name\":\"Columbus\",\"description\":\"city\"}]}","_extracted_celebrities":"","_extracted_movies":"","_extracted_places":null,"_extracted_videos":"","_last_enrichment_date":"2025-11-22 20:09:20","footnotes":""},"categories":[188],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sport","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Maple Leafs favored over Canadiens with 1-0 edge in season series, but Canadiens&#039; Dobes&#039; stellar form keeps it close<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/83156-maple-leafs-favored-over-canadiens-with-1-0-edge-in-season-series-but-canadiens\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Maple Leafs favored over Canadiens with 1-0 edge in season series, but Canadiens&#039; Dobes&#039; stellar form keeps it close\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&hellip;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/83156-maple-leafs-favored-over-canadiens-with-1-0-edge-in-season-series-but-canadiens\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Red94\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-11-23T00:08:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-11-23T00:09:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Michael Brown\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Michael Brown\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/83156-maple-leafs-favored-over-canadiens-with-1-0-edge-in-season-series-but-canadiens\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/83156-maple-leafs-favored-over-canadiens-with-1-0-edge-in-season-series-but-canadiens\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Michael Brown\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/58afe56b917c963c37d09aadbd8b892b\"},\"headline\":\"Maple Leafs favored over Canadiens with 1-0 edge in season series, but Canadiens&#8217; 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