{"id":17486,"date":"2025-11-22T17:55:52","date_gmt":"2025-11-22T21:55:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/la-monroe-struggles-against-favored-texas-state-with-20-5-point-spread-brad-jackson-leads-bobcats-into-pivotal-sun-belt-matchup\/"},"modified":"2025-11-22T17:56:07","modified_gmt":"2025-11-22T21:56:07","slug":"92876-la-monroe-struggles-against-favored-texas-state-with-20-5-point-spread-brad-jack","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/92876-la-monroe-struggles-against-favored-texas-state-with-20-5-point-spread-brad-jack\/","title":{"rendered":"LA-Monroe struggles against favored Texas State with 20.5-point spread, Brad Jackson leads Bobcats into pivotal Sun Belt matchup"},"content":{"rendered":"

Texas State<\/b> enters Saturday’s matchup favored by 20.5 points<\/b> over LA-Monroe<\/b> in a pivotal Sun Belt Conference<\/b> battle. The Bobcats (4-6)<\/b> need wins to secure bowl eligibility for the third straight season. Quarterback Brad Jackson<\/b> leads the offense after a dominant 41-14<\/b> win over Southern Miss. The game kicks off at 5:00 PM<\/b> on November 22, 2025<\/b> at UFCU Stadium<\/b> in San Marcos.<\/p>\n

\n

\ud83d\udd25 Quick Facts:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Texas State<\/b> is 20.5-point favorite<\/b>, with moneyline at -1205<\/b><\/li>\n
  • Brad Jackson<\/b> has 2,568<\/b> yards, 14 TDs<\/b>, and 6 INTs<\/b> this season<\/li>\n
  • Texas State ranks 21st<\/b> in scoring with 35.3 PPG<\/b>, ULM at 15.8 PPG<\/b><\/li>\n
  • Series history dates back to 1986<\/b>, ULM leads 13-8<\/b> all-time<\/li>\n
  • Game airs exclusively on ESPN+<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

    Head-to-Head Record & Recent Form<\/h2>\n

    Texas State and LA-Monroe<\/b> have created one of college football’s most interesting rivalries.<\/p>\n

    The Warhawks (3-7)<\/b> have fallen on tough times after a 3-1<\/b> start. They’ve lost six straight games and are eliminated from bowl contention. Their defense has been porous, allowing 32.2 PPG<\/b> while scoring just 15.8 PPG<\/b> on offense. Quarterback Aidan Armenta<\/b> has thrown 9 TDs<\/b> against 8 INTs<\/b> with only 1,152 yards<\/b> passing.<\/p>\n

    Texas State dominated last year’s matchup. Jackson<\/b> rushed for 119 yards<\/b> and two touchdowns on 16 carries<\/b> in a 38-17<\/b> victory in a rainstorm. Over their last four meetings, Texas State has won three. Since joining the Sun Belt<\/b> in 2013<\/b>, both teams have split 12 contests<\/b> evenly with six wins<\/b> apiece, featuring seven one-possession thrillers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Category<\/b><\/th>\nTexas State<\/b><\/th>\nUL Monroe<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    Record<\/b><\/td>\n4-6<\/b><\/td>\n3-7<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Points Per Game<\/b><\/td>\n35.3<\/b><\/td>\n15.8<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Passing Yards<\/b><\/td>\n2,568<\/b> (Jackson)<\/td>\n1,152<\/b> (Armenta)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Rushing Leader<\/b><\/td>\nLincoln Pare: 855 yd<\/b><\/td>\nMcReynolds: 539 yd<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Points Allowed<\/b><\/td>\n32.7 PPG<\/b><\/td>\n32.2 PPG<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    All-Time Series<\/b><\/td>\n8 wins<\/b><\/td>\n13 wins<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    Why This Spread Matters<\/h2>\n

    The 20.5-point spread<\/b> is significant because it reflects Texas State’s dominance despite both teams struggling. Let me explain what this means for your bets and predictions.<\/p>\n

    Texas State’s defense has given up 32.7 PPG<\/b>, placing them 125th<\/b> nationally. They rank 110th<\/b> in total yards allowed at 412.0<\/b> per game. Still, UL Monroe’s<\/b> offense ranks 126th<\/b> in the FBS at just 303.8 YPG<\/b>. The Warhawks<\/b> convert only 30.3%<\/b> of third downs, ranking 132nd<\/b> in the country.<\/p>\n

    Oddsmakers favor Texas State heavily because the matchup is lopsided. Jackson<\/b> ranks 42nd<\/b> nationally in passing with 258.2 YPG<\/b>. His team scores on 91.5%<\/b> of red zone trips, placing them 22nd<\/b> in the nation. ULM averages nearly 20 points less<\/b> per game, a fatal gap in college football.<\/p>\n

    Key Storylines to Watch<\/h2>\n
      \n
    • Jackson’s momentum:<\/b> The freshman QB rushed for 49 yards<\/b> and 2 TDs<\/b> last week while completing 82.4%<\/b> of passes against Southern Miss.<\/li>\n
    • Defense dominance:<\/b> Texas State forced 3 turnovers<\/b> last week while holding opponents to season-low scoring.<\/li>\n
    • Bowl desperation:<\/b> The Bobcats need just 2 wins<\/b> to reach a third straight bowl game.<\/li>\n
    • Conference standings:<\/b> James Madison<\/b> leads Sun Belt at 7-0<\/b>; Texas State sits 1-5<\/b> in conference play.<\/li>\n
    • Road warrior test:<\/b> ULM couldn’t bounce back from bowl elimination, losing six straight after that 3-1<\/b> start.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Can UL Monroe Pull off the Upset?<\/h2>\n

      Statistically? It seems almost impossible given the gulf in talent and execution. UL Monroe<\/b> hasn’t beaten Texas State since 2011<\/b>, before the Bobcats even joined the Sun Belt<\/b>. The Warhawks<\/b> lack offensive firepower with Armenta<\/b> struggling as a passer.<\/p>\n

      What could help ULM<\/b> stay competitive? Stop the run. Lincoln Pare<\/b> has 855 rushing yards<\/b> this season. If the Warhawks<\/b> can contain the ground game and force Jackson<\/b> into errors, they might keep it closer than 20.5 points<\/b>. But they’re 123rd<\/b> in FBS with a -9 turnover margin<\/b>, meaning they lose the ball frequently and don’t force enough takeaways.<\/p>\n

      The reality is Texas State’s path to a 5-6 record<\/b> and potential bowl eligibility runs through games like this. Expect the Bobcats<\/b> to dominate behind Jackson’s<\/b> dual-threat ability and a defense<\/b> that found confidence last week. The question isn’t whether Texas State wins, but by how much.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":17485,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"schema_org_data":"{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Place\",\"name\":\"UFCU Stadium\",\"description\":\"venue\"},{\"@type\":\"Place\",\"name\":\"San Marcos\",\"description\":\"city\"}]}","_extracted_celebrities":"","_extracted_movies":"","_extracted_places":null,"_extracted_videos":"","_last_enrichment_date":"2025-11-22 17:56:17","footnotes":""},"categories":[188],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sport","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33"],"yoast_head":"\nLA-Monroe struggles against favored Texas State with 20.5-point spread, Brad Jackson leads Bobcats 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