{"id":17435,"date":"2025-11-22T16:20:20","date_gmt":"2025-11-22T20:20:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/northern-arizona-favored-to-beat-weber-state-with-80-win-probability-in-big-sky-matchup\/"},"modified":"2025-11-22T16:20:55","modified_gmt":"2025-11-22T20:20:55","slug":"61706-northern-arizona-favored-to-beat-weber-state-with-80-win-probability-in-big-sky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/61706-northern-arizona-favored-to-beat-weber-state-with-80-win-probability-in-big-sky\/","title":{"rendered":"Northern Arizona favored to beat Weber State with 80% win probability in Big Sky matchup"},"content":{"rendered":"

Northern Arizona<\/b> heads to Weber State<\/b> for a crucial November 22<\/b> matchup. The No. 23-ranked Lumberjacks (7-4, 4-3 Big Sky)<\/b> need a win. It’s make-or-break for an FCS Playoff berth<\/b>. Weber State (3-8, 1-6)<\/b> looks to send off 18 seniors<\/b> on their home field.<\/p>\n

\n

\ud83d\udd25 Quick Facts:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Kickoff:<\/b> Saturday, Nov. 22<\/b> at 1 p.m. MST<\/b> from Stewart Stadium<\/b> in Ogden, Utah<\/b><\/li>\n
  • Win probability:<\/b> 83%<\/b> favors NAU<\/b> to advance to playoffs<\/li>\n
  • Series record:<\/b> NAU<\/b> leads 29-28<\/b> all-time; NAU<\/b> won last two games<\/li>\n
  • Playoff stakes:<\/b> NAU<\/b> needs 8-4 record<\/b> for consecutive playoff appearances<\/li>\n
  • Big Sky standing:<\/b> Sacramento State<\/b> leads conference at 5-2<\/b> with playoff automatic bid implications<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

    What’s On The Line<\/h2>\n

    This isn’t just another conference game. Northern Arizona<\/b> sits on the playoff bubble. A loss means missing out on back-to-back postseason berths. Head coach Brian Wright<\/b> knows the stakes. His team just beat Cal Poly 35-27<\/b> at home.<\/p>\n

    The Lumberjacks have won two straight<\/b>. They’re clicking at the right time. QB Ty Pennington<\/b> just eclipsed 5,000 passing yards<\/b> for his career. Kolbe Katsis<\/b> is putting up monster numbers. But Weber State<\/b> at home? That’s dangerous.<\/p>\n

    Weber State<\/b> is sending off 18 seniors<\/b>. That includes standout kicker Sloan Calder<\/b>, tied for second nationally with 16 made field goals<\/b>. While the Wildcats<\/b> are 3-8<\/b>, senior day can spark unexpected resilience.<\/p>\n

    Head-to-Head Battle<\/h2>\n

    History slightly favors NAU<\/b>. The Lumberjacks<\/b> lead 29-28<\/b> all-time. They’ve won the last two matchups<\/b>. In Weber State’s<\/b> home stadium, though, the Wildcats<\/b> are 19-9<\/b>. That’s substantial home-field advantage.<\/p>\n

    The Red Rock Rivalry trophy<\/b> is on the line. NAU<\/b> won it the past two years<\/b>. Weber State<\/b> took the inaugural trophy in 2022<\/b>. This rivalry has real flesh on it now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Statistic<\/th>\nNorthern Arizona<\/b><\/th>\nWeber State<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    Record<\/b><\/td>\n7-4<\/b> (4-3 Big Sky)<\/b><\/td>\n3-8<\/b> (1-6 Big Sky)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Points Per Game<\/b><\/td>\n33.3<\/b> vs FCS foes<\/td>\n24.0<\/b> vs FCS foes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Defense Allows<\/b><\/td>\n28.9 PPG<\/b><\/td>\n34.7 PPG<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Turnover Margin<\/b><\/td>\n+3<\/b> (plus-12 takeaways)<\/td>\n-7<\/b> (minus-20 giveaways)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Total Yards\/Game<\/b><\/td>\n428.2<\/b> yards<\/td>\n339.7<\/b> yards<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    QB Efficiency<\/b><\/td>\nTy Pennington:<\/b> 260.6<\/b> YPG, 67%<\/b> completion<\/td>\nDijon Jennings:<\/b> 831<\/b> total yards, 4<\/b> TDs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    The data is stark. NAU<\/b> dominates nearly every metric. The Lumberjacks<\/b> control the line. They force turnovers relentlessly. Weber State<\/b> can’t afford to shoot itself in the foot.<\/p>\n

    Key Matchups To Watch<\/h2>\n
      \n
    • Run Defense vs. Godley:<\/b> Weber State RB Davion Godley<\/b> leads the Wildcats<\/b> with 512 rushing yards<\/b>. But NAU<\/b> held Cal Poly<\/b> to 86 net rushing yards<\/b> last week. The Lumberjacks<\/b> are elite stopping the run.<\/li>\n
    • Pennington’s Arm:<\/b> Ty Pennington<\/b> just threw four touchdowns<\/b> against Cal Poly<\/b>. First time in four years<\/b> a NAU QB<\/b> nailed that feat. Weber State<\/b>‘s secondary is vulnerable.<\/li>\n
    • Katsis Gets His:<\/b> Kolbe Katsis<\/b> had six catches<\/b> for 148 yards<\/b> and three TDs<\/b> last week. He’s sitting in top 10 FCS<\/b> in receiving yards and touchdowns. Look for him to feast early.<\/li>\n
    • Senior Day Energy:<\/b> Weber State<\/b> honors 18 players<\/b>. Emotional games flip scripts. The Wildcats<\/b> could play with unexpected fire in front of the home crowd.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      The Verdict: Why NAU Wins<\/h2>\n

      Multiple analytical models give NAU<\/b> the edge. D Ratings<\/b> predicts a 37-23 Lumberjacks<\/b> win at 83% probability<\/b>. ESPN’s Bill Connelly<\/b> projects 39-24 NAU<\/b>. Even Jeff Sagarin<\/b>‘s advanced formula favors Northern Arizona by nine points<\/b>.<\/p>\n

      The Lumberjacks<\/b> have momentum. They’ve won two straight<\/b>. The only loss in their last four games<\/b> was to Sacramento State<\/b>. They’re peaking at playoff time.<\/p>\n

      Plus, NAU<\/b> needs this more. A tournament berth changes the entire season narrative. Web State<\/b>‘s done for year. That desperation advantage matters.<\/p>\n

      But here’s the thing about college football: Nothing’s guaranteed. Senior days<\/b> spark miracles. Home crowds flip momentum. Weber State<\/b> started 2-2 non-conference<\/b>. They showed flashes of competence. One play. One moment. It’s how upsets happen.<\/p>\n

      Sources<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • NAU Athletics<\/b> – Game preview and statistics from official athletic department<\/li>\n
      • Standard-Examiner<\/b> – Weber State perspective and detailed analytical predictions<\/li>\n
      • Big Sky Conference<\/b> – 2025 standings and playoff seeding information<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":17434,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"schema_org_data":"{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Brian Wright\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.themoviedb.org\/person\/4478023\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Ty Pennington\",\"image\":\"https:\/\/image.tmdb.org\/t\/p\/w500\/aeB9ERQXGK3L6Gq4pRdwUMrPR4J.jpg\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.themoviedb.org\/person\/1228634\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Kolbe Katsis\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Sloan Calder\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Davion Godley\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Dijon Jennings\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Bill Connelly\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Jeff 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