{"id":17057,"date":"2025-11-21T18:44:58","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T22:44:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/egg-bowl-favors-ole-miss-with-78-win-probability-over-mississippi-state-on-nov-28\/"},"modified":"2025-11-21T18:45:17","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T22:45:17","slug":"95995-egg-bowl-favors-ole-miss-with-78-win-probability-over-mississippi-state-on-nov-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.red94.net\/news\/95995-egg-bowl-favors-ole-miss-with-78-win-probability-over-mississippi-state-on-nov-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Egg Bowl favors Ole Miss with 78% win probability over Mississippi State on Nov 28"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ole Miss<\/b> enters the Egg Bowl<\/b> as a heavy favorite against Mississippi State<\/b> on November 28<\/b>. The No. 6 Rebels<\/b> hold a 78% win probability<\/b> according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. Ole Miss<\/b> sits 10-1<\/b> while Mississippi State<\/b> limps in at 5-6<\/b>. This SEC rivalry game carries massive implications for both programs.<\/p>\n

\n

\ud83d\udd25 Quick Facts:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Ole Miss<\/b> has 67 wins<\/b> in the all-time series versus 47 losses<\/b><\/li>\n
  • Mississippi State<\/b> currently on 2-game losing streak<\/b> in rivalry<\/li>\n
  • Ole Miss<\/b> averages 37.2 points per game<\/b>, ranked 13th nationally<\/b><\/li>\n
  • Mississippi State<\/b> needs a win for bowl eligibility<\/b><\/li>\n
  • Game kicks off from Starkville<\/b> with home-field advantage for the Bulldogs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

    Head-to-Head Statistical Breakdown<\/h2>\n

    This rivalry leans heavily in Ole Miss<\/b>‘s favor both historically and this season. The Rebels<\/b> have dominated the series with a 66-46-6 all-time record<\/b> through 2024<\/b>. Plus, they’ve won the last 2 consecutive matchups<\/b>, giving them momentum heading into Nov. 28<\/b>.<\/p>\n

    Recent form tells an even starker story. Ole Miss<\/b> is 10-1<\/b> this season with just one loss, while Mississippi State<\/b>‘s 5-6 record<\/b> reflects a team struggling mightily. The Bulldogs<\/b> are 1-6 in SEC play<\/b>, showcasing how badly things have gone in conference competition. Ole Miss<\/b> counters with a 6-1 SEC record<\/b>, built on offensive dominance and defensive competence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Statistic<\/b><\/th>\nOle Miss<\/b><\/th>\nMississippi State<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    Overall Record<\/b><\/td>\n10-1<\/b><\/td>\n5-6<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    SEC Conference Record<\/b><\/td>\n6-1<\/b><\/td>\n1-6<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Points Per Game<\/b><\/td>\n37.2 PPG<\/b><\/td>\n31.5 PPG<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Points Allowed Per Game<\/b><\/td>\n20.2 PPG<\/b><\/td>\n28.4 PPG<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Total Yards Per Game<\/b><\/td>\n493.8 yards<\/b><\/td>\n394.6 yards<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Total Defense<\/b><\/td>\n323.4 yards allowed<\/b><\/td>\n393.2 yards allowed<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Passing Yards Per Game<\/b><\/td>\n305.1 yards<\/b><\/td>\n242.1 yards<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Rushing Yards Per Game<\/b><\/td>\n188.7 yards<\/b><\/td>\n152.5 yards<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    The numbers don’t lie here. Ole Miss<\/b> dominates nearly every statistical category. They score nearly 6 more points per game<\/b> than Mississippi State<\/b>. Plus, Ole Miss<\/b> allows 8+ fewer points per game<\/b> on defense. This gap reflects a stark difference between tournament contender and rebuilding team.<\/p>\n

    Offensive Firepower: Ole Miss vs Mississippi State<\/h2>\n

    Let’s look at who’s doing the damage on offense. Ole Miss<\/b> features RB Kewan Lacy<\/b>, who’s absolutely been a workhorse. Lacy<\/b> has rushed for 1,136 yards<\/b> with 19 touchdowns<\/b>. He’s scoring at a rate of 1 TD per 12 carries<\/b>, which is explosive stuff. His 103.3 rushing yards per game<\/b> leads the offensive attack.<\/p>\n

    Mississippi State<\/b> counters with RB Davon Booth<\/b>, who’s put up 547 rushing yards<\/b> and 7 touchdowns<\/b>. Thing is, Booth<\/b> also has 14 receptions<\/b> for 158 yards<\/b> and 2 more touchdowns<\/b>. That’s valuable production, but it still trails Lacy<\/b>‘s dominance significantly. On the passing side, Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss<\/b> has thrown 14 touchdowns<\/b> to just 3 interceptions<\/b>. Mississippi State QB Blake Shapen<\/b> has 15 passing touchdowns<\/b> against 8 interceptions<\/b>.<\/p>\n

    Defensive Strength and Vulnerabilities<\/h2>\n

    Defense will decide this game, though Ole Miss<\/b> enters with a clear advantage. The Rebels<\/b> have forced 6 interceptions<\/b> and recorded 22 sacks<\/b>. Mississippi State<\/b> has just 12 interceptions<\/b> but 20 sacks<\/b>. The difference lies in turnovers. Ole Miss<\/b> turns the ball over just 1.1 times per game<\/b> while Mississippi State<\/b> commits 1.3 turnovers per game<\/b>.<\/p>\n

    Here’s what matters most for prediction. Mississippi State<\/b> allows an ugly 28.4 points per game<\/b>, ranked 95th nationally<\/b>. Ole Miss<\/b> can exploit that ruthlessly with their balanced attack. Run Lacy<\/b>, throw occasional play-action, and let the defense rest.<\/p>\n

    Key Players to Watch<\/h2>\n
      \n
    • Kewan Lacy (RB, Ole Miss)<\/b> – 19 rushing TDs<\/b> on 231 carries<\/b>. He’s the heartbeat of this offense<\/li>\n
    • Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss)<\/b> – 2,657 passing yards<\/b> with 14 TDs<\/b> and tight ball control. 65.2% completion rate shows consistency<\/li>\n
    • Brenen Thompson (WR, Mississippi State)<\/b> – 47 receptions<\/b> for 868 yards<\/b> and 7 touchdowns<\/b> total. Only bright offensive spot for State<\/b><\/li>\n
    • Blake Shapen (QB, Mississippi State)<\/b> – 2,433 passing yards<\/b> with 15 TDs<\/b> but 8 interceptions<\/b>. Turnover risk is real<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Why Ole Miss Should Win This Game<\/h2>\n

      Statistics suggest Ole Miss<\/b> dominates this matchup convincingly. The 78% win probability<\/b> from ESPN’s advanced models reflects a team that’s better everywhere. Ole Miss<\/b> will control the line of scrimmage with Lacy’s running game<\/b>. They’ll keep Mississippi State<\/b>‘s struggling offense off the field. Plus, State<\/b> absolutely needs this win for bowl eligibility, which puts pressure on them to force plays.<\/p>\n

      Mississippi State<\/b> faces a desperate situation. They’re 5-6<\/b> and must win just to get to a bowl game. That desperation might create turnovers or reckless decisions. Ole Miss<\/b>, conversely, can play patient, methodical football. They can lean on Lacy<\/b>, control time of possession, and let their defense do its job.<\/p>\n

      The Mississippi State Question: Can They Pull Off The Upset?<\/h2>\n

      Here’s the thing though. Rivalry games are unpredictable by nature. Lane Kiffin’s<\/b> coaching future uncertainty has been a distraction for Ole Miss<\/b>. If State<\/b> can force turnovers early and jump out to a lead, they could steal this game. Brenen Thompson<\/b> is a legitimate receiving threat who can make plays after the catch. That could open things up downfield if Shapen<\/b> gets hot.<\/p>\n

      But statistically, the gap is just too large. Ole Miss<\/b> scores more, defends better, and commits fewer turnovers. Mississippi State<\/b> would need near-perfect execution and Ole Miss<\/b> playing sloppy.<\/p>\n

      Sources<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • ESPN College Football<\/b> – Season statistics, playoff projections, and FPI prediction models<\/li>\n
      • Sports-Reference<\/b> – Comprehensive team and player statistics for 2025<\/b><\/li>\n
      • Saturday Down South<\/b> – TV information and prediction data for Egg Bowl 2025<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":17056,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"schema_org_data":"{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Kewan Lacy\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Trinidad Chambliss\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Davon Booth\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Blake Shapen\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Brenen Thompson\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Lane 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