Shock as Cavs get Snubbed in NBA Championship Odds after Donovan Mitchell’s Mega Extension!

All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell is all set to stay put this offseason, having reportedly agreed to a three-year, $150.3 million extension with the Cleveland Cavaliers. This ties him to the franchise until the 2027-28 season, with a player option available.

This is a significant step for the Cavs, as Mitchell’s retention was not always a certain outcome during his two-year stint with the team. Now, the Cavs can bank on Mitchell as a key player for the foreseeable future. This reaffirms the wisdom of the Cavs’ decision to trade for Mitchell in the 2022-23 season, and it should enhance their prospects of success in the upcoming seasons.

At least, it’s supposed to.

Despite the Mitchell extension, which many anticipated this offseason, oddsmakers have not significantly adjusted their predictions. The Cavs’ odds to win the 2024-25 NBA Finals remain unchanged. They currently stand at +4000, tied with the Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat, and Memphis Grizzlies.

2024-25 NBA Finals Predictions

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Boston Celtics: +295
• Philadelphia 76ers: +800
• Oklahoma City Thunder: +850
• Denver Nuggets: +850
• New York Knicks: +950
• Minnesota Timberwolves: +1000
• Dallas Mavericks: +1000
• Milwaukee Bucks: +1100
• Los Angeles Lakers: +3000
• Phoenix Suns: +3500
• Miami Heat: +4000
• Memphis Grizzlies: +4000
• Golden State Warriors: +4000
• Cleveland Cavaliers: +4000
• Los Angeles Clippers: +4500
• New Orleans Pelicans: +5000
• Indiana Pacers: +6000
• Sacramento Kings: +7500
• Orlando Magic: +7500

Are the Cavs Being Underestimated in NBA Finals Odds?

Despite the increased likelihood of Mitchell extending his deal before the 2023-24 offseason, the Cavs’ odds remain surprisingly low.

Cleveland has maintained the core team of Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, and Mitchell, yet its odds are level with teams that are not in an ideal position leading into the 2024-25 season.

Golden State is a notable example. The Warriors lost Klay Thompson and failed to secure Paul George after the Los Angeles Clippers refused to sign-and-trade him. Despite missing the playoffs last season, Golden State is considered just as likely to win the title as the Cavs, according to Vegas.

This is surprising, given that Cleveland reached the second round of the playoffs last season and even managed to claim a game against the eventual champions, the Boston Celtics, before Mitchell suffered a calf injury.

Cleveland has consistently ranked in the top four teams in the East for two consecutive seasons, and its core comprises three players (Mitchell, Allen, and Garland) who have made an All-Star team in their careers.

Given Mitchell’s return, it’s puzzling that the Cavs didn’t receive a slight bump in the odds, especially considering that the Los Angeles Lakers (+3000) and Phoenix Suns (+3500) are ranked higher despite not making any significant moves after a season in which they collectively won only one playoff game.

While the Cavs may not be my top pick for the title, the odds seem to undervalue the strong team Cleveland has assembled.

Please note that odds are updated periodically and may vary.

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