The NBA Cup has recently concluded, leaving Wednesday as a day without any NBA games.
Following the break, Thursday night heats up with 13 exciting games to place bets on.
It’s been a challenging NBA Cup for me, achieving only 1 out of 4 in my best bets, slightly dropping below a positive unit count for the season. I’m hopeful that Wednesday’s break will turn the tide in favor of some wins tonight.
Tonight’s games are particularly exciting, featuring the first regular-season matchup between the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves since their major trade involving Karl-Anthony Towns.
Other notable games include the Indiana Pacers going up against the Phoenix Suns and a playoff rivalry rekindled between the Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies.
With 26 teams playing tonight, there are numerous prop bets to consider, and I’ve selected a few that I believe are the best bets for tonight.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2024-25 season record: 83-84-3 (-2.27 units)
- OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1093-1029-25 (+35.82 units)
Check out Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here. Follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Top NBA Picks for Today
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Phoenix Suns-Denver Nuggets Moneyline Parlay (-130)
- Josh Hart OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-130) – 0.5 unit
- Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 18.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
Phoenix Suns-Denver Nuggets Moneyline Parlay (-130)
Phoenix Suns
Several factors make the Suns a compelling bet tonight, starting with their strong home record.
Despite a less favorable record against the spread as home favorites, I’m opting for a moneyline parlay instead.
The Suns face the Pacers, who have struggled significantly on the road. Additionally, Kevin Durant’s participation tonight boosts the Suns’ prospects, given their impressive record with him playing this season.
With Durant, the Suns have achieved a formidable 13-2 record.
Denver Nuggets
Denver, favored by 8.5 points on the road, faces a Portland Trail Blazers team on a losing streak and struggling at home.
The Nuggets, on a winning streak, are expected to dominate a faltering Portland team that ranks poorly in offensive and defensive ratings.
Given their recent performance and history against the Blazers, betting on Denver to win seems a secure choice.
Denver has consistently defeated Portland in recent matchups, including a significant victory against a struggling Utah team. Opting for Denver in this game, disregarding the points, is a solid bet.
Josh Hart OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-130) – 0.5 unit
Despite a recent dip in rebounding figures, I’m betting on New York Knicks’ Josh Hart in what could be a defensively oriented game against Minnesota, who ranks highly in defensive ratings.
Hart maintains strong averages in rebounds and assists, consistently achieving over 12 combined in a majority of his games this season.
His stats provide a good foundation for surpassing this prop bet tonight.
Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 18.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
While it’s not advisable to consistently bet against Tyrese Haliburton, his performance on the road suggests it might be the right strategy.
The Indiana Pacers guard shows significant variance in his home vs. road performance, with notably lower scoring on the road.
Points Per Game
- Home: 21.4
- Road: 15.5
Rebounds Per Game
- Home: 3.4
- Road: 3.3
Assists Per Game
- Home: 9.0
- Road: 8.2
Field Goal Percentage
- Home: 47.3%
- Road: 38.5%
3-Point Percentage
- Home: 41.8%
- Road: 29.0%
Given these stats, Haliburton is a less reliable choice on the road, particularly against a strong home team like Phoenix.
I’m wary of backing him in this matchup due to his poor shooting performance away from home.
Additional Betting Tips!
Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Los Angeles Lakers
I hesitated to include this in my official picks due to the uncertainty around LeBron James, Domantas Sabonis, and Keegan Murray’s participation.
However, if Sabonis and Murray play, I strongly favor the Kings.
The Lakers have struggled on the road, both straight up and against the spread. Despite their early success, they now rank poorly in net rating, while the Kings hold a much better position.
Sacramento has faced challenges in close games, which could affect their ability to cover a short spread. However, I don’t anticipate this game being particularly close.
The Kings perform much better at home, contrasting sharply with the Lakers’ poor road performance.
Domantas Sabonis Triple-Double
If Sabonis plays, he’s a strong candidate for a triple-double, priced attractively at +750. He has consistently excelled against the Lakers, achieving a triple-double in each of his last three encounters with them.
Sabonis led the NBA in triple-doubles last season and has already demonstrated his prowess against the Lakers this season with a standout performance.
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