As the 2024–25 NBA season reaches its halfway point, Sports Illustrated offers projections for the second half, including predictions for several major awards and insights from the season’s first half.
MVP
Chris Mannix: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder point guard
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains my top choice for MVP from preseason through midseason, and, barring any unforeseen circumstances, likely for the end of season as well. SGA has been outstanding, averaging 31.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game with shooting percentages of 53%/36%/90%. Leading his team to the top of the Western Conference, he embodies the ideal MVP candidate.
Liam McKeone: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets center
Despite potential voter fatigue, Nikola Jokic has enhanced his game this season, even as the Nuggets have struggled. His presence boosts Denver’s performance significantly, as evidenced by stats that show the team performs 26 points per 100 possessions better when he plays. Jokic ranks among the top three in points, assists, and rebounds per game and leads in three-point percentage. His revitalization of Russell Westbrook’s career should also contribute to his narrative appeal.
Rookie of the Year
Mannix: Yves Missi, New Orleans Pelicans center
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Yves Missi was an unexpected revelation for the Pelicans. The 21st overall pick has become a vital part of their rotation, excelling as a rebounder and shot blocker. His efficient, predominantly paint-based offensive game has made him one of the rookie leaders in field goal percentage, proving to be a smart acquisition by Pelicans’ president David Griffin.
McKeone: Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies forward
Jaylen Wells stands out as a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year, especially considering the overall lack of standout performances among his peers this season. Wells has been a defensive stalwart for the Grizzlies, who have maintained a top-10 defensive rating with him on the floor. His consistent availability and significant impact on a successful team make him a strong contender for the award.
Coach of the Year
Mannix: Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers
Kenny Atkinson’s appointment as head coach of the Cavaliers, following the dismissal of J.B. Bickerstaff, turned out to be a wise decision. Atkinson has excelled, particularly in maximizing Evan Mobley’s potential and leveraging the team’s depth while maintaining a strong defensive and the best offensive record in the NBA.
McKeone: Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers
There’s no doubting Kenny Atkinson’s impact in Cleveland. Even if the Cavaliers’ exceptional performance slightly declines, Atkinson’s remarkable coaching feats won’t be overshadowed. He has propelled the team to new heights, which is exactly what Coach of the Year voters look for.
NBA Finals Matchup and Champion
Mannix: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics (Boston in 7)
The significant lead that the Oklahoma City Thunder have established in the Western Conference is impressive. With Chet Holmgren expected to return post-All-Star break, the team is poised to strengthen further. The Celtics, on the other hand, must manage their injuries carefully but remain formidable when healthy. A Finals series between these two teams would likely extend to seven intense games, with Boston’s experience potentially giving them the edge.
McKeone: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (Thunder in 6)
The Cavaliers will face a tough challenge if they are to overcome the reigning champion Celtics for a shot at the title. However, Cleveland’s season has been so stellar it seems they are destined for a deep playoff run. The Thunder, dominating the Western Conference, are expected to break through to the Finals, where their superior defense could lead them to victory over the Cavaliers in a thrilling six-game series.
First-Half Breakout Star
Mannix: Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic forward
Franz Wagner has justified the Magic’s decision to grant him a max contract extension, especially during Paolo Banchero’s absence. Wagner’s leap from a solid player to an All-NBA contender has been one of the more surprising developments this season.
McKeone: Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons point guard
Cade Cunningham has taken a significant step forward, becoming a dominant force for the Pistons. His impressive stats and impact on the court make him not just an All-Star candidate but a potential starter. His transformation from a good player to a great one has been a highlight of the Pistons’ season, offering real hope for the team’s future.
Most Surprising Team
Mannix: Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets have exceeded expectations this season, thanks to Coach Ime Udoka’s influence. A blend of veteran leadership and burgeoning young talent has propelled the team to a top-five defensive ranking, while their offense has also been impressive. The Rockets have shown significant improvement from last season, surpassing many pre-season predictions.
McKeone: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a revelation this season, defying even the most optimistic forecasts. Under Kenny Atkinson’s leadership, and with standout performances from key players, the team has enjoyed a historic start. Their success is a testament to excellent teamwork and execution, making them one of the season’s biggest surprises.
Most Disappointing Team
Mannix: Philadelphia 76ers
Despite significant investments in Paul George and Joel Embiid, the Philadelphia 76ers have underperformed dramatically. Their struggles have been compounded by Embiid’s health issues, raising questions about their direction and management’s decisions. The pressure is on GM Daryl Morey to make significant moves before the trade deadline to salvage the season.
McKeone: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been a major disappointment, failing to build on last season’s success. High expectations have not been met, as the team has struggled with fit issues and declining performances from key players. Their lack of cohesion and effectiveness has been glaring, making them one of the season’s most disheartening stories.
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