2024-25 NBA MVP Race Heats Up: Jokic, Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander Top Contenders!

The 2024-25 NBA season’s MVP race is shaping up to be highly competitive, with five top contenders all priced at +650 or shorter. Notably, this group includes last season’s finalists—Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Jokic, having secured three of the past four MVP titles—with Joel Embiid claiming the other—has been instrumental in Denver’s consistent top seeding in the West, thanks to his remarkable on/off court statistics.

The criteria for NBA MVP selection extend beyond mere performance on the court. Media narratives and the phenomenon of voter fatigue also play crucial roles in the decision-making process.

Some argue that Jokic’s performance in the 2022-23 season might have merited an MVP award more than in other years, but there was reluctance to award him three consecutive MVPs, a rare accolade in the league.

Following this, Jokic led Denver to an NBA championship, earning the NBA Finals MVP title for the first time.

Additionally, the NBA’s latest collective bargaining agreement sets a 65-game minimum to qualify for awards and All-NBA honors, which introduces another layer of complexity for players prone to injuries or rest days, like Joel Embiid.

This raises questions about whether teams like the Philadelphia 76ers will risk Embiid’s health to meet this threshold, a significant consideration for bettors in this market.

As the new season approaches, Jokic is the frontrunner for his fourth MVP in five years, with Doncic trailing closely after leading Dallas to the NBA Finals in the previous season.

Here is a detailed look at the MVP betting market, including odds and key trends to consider before making any season-long bets.

NBA MVP Contenders for 2024-25

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Nikola Jokic: +350
• Luka Doncic: +370
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +600
• Joel Embiid: +600
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: +650
• Anthony Edwards: +1200
• Jayson Tatum: +1800
• Jalen Brunson: +1800
• Victor Wembanyama: +2000
• Ja Morant: +3000
• Stephen Curry: +5000
• Kevin Durant: +6000
• Trae Young: +8000

LeBron James is priced at +15000, with no other player listed below +10000. Full odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Important Trends in the NBA MVP Betting Market

Historical MVP Participation Trends

• Joel Embiid in the 2022-23 season
• Giannis Antetokounmpo in the 2019-20 season (COVID-19 shortened season)
• LeBron James in the 2011-12 season (NBA lockout shortened season)
• Karl Malone in the 1998-99 season (NBA lockout shortened season)

While a 65-game season is usually sufficient, more often, MVP winners participate in at least 70 games. Although Embiid achieved this recently, he is the exception in nearly half a century.

Recent Back-to-Back MVPs

• Tim Duncan, LeBron James (twice), Steve Nash, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic are recent consecutive MVPs.

Jokic’s three MVPs in four seasons suggest that despite potential voter fatigue, he remains a strong contender.

Team Performance and MVP Selection

• Only Russell Westbrook (2016-17) and Jokic (2021-22) have won MVPs without their teams being among the top three seeds since 1983.

In MVP betting, it’s crucial not just to look for outstanding individual performances but also for candidates likely to lead their teams to the top of their conferences.

Spotlight on Nikola Jokic’s MVP Chances

Jokic, known for his triple-double capabilities, faces another season where he might defy the odds despite Denver losing key players and facing doubts about maintaining their top form.

Denver’s performance with Jokic on the floor last season was significantly better, emphasizing his critical role and making him a strong MVP candidate once again.

Luka Doncic’s Pursuit of the MVP

Despite leading the league in scoring and nearly averaging a triple-double last season, Doncic’s MVP chances were hurt by Dallas finishing fifth in the West. This season, his prospects might hinge on his ability to push Dallas into the top three.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Eyes the MVP

With Oklahoma City expected to be a top contender in the West, Gilgeous-Alexander stands out not just for his scoring but for leading a young and promising team.

Jayson Tatum’s MVP Potential

While Tatum’s willingness to share the limelight in Boston’s balanced attack impacted his previous MVP chances, this season presents another opportunity to enhance his credentials should he elevate his game further.

Assessing Anthony Edwards’ MVP Prospects

Edwards is seen as a future NBA frontrunner, but he needs to elevate his game to match the standards set by the likes of Jokic and Doncic.

Jalen Brunson’s Case for MVP

Brunson’s crucial role in New York’s success last season puts him in the MVP conversation, but he faces the challenge of replicating his impact amidst an enhanced roster.

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s MVP Odds Amidst Health Concerns

Health issues during the playoffs have slightly diminished the outlook for Giannis, yet his on-court production remains indisputably elite.

Joel Embiid’s MVP Ambitions

While Embiid’s scoring prowess keeps him in the MVP discussion, his injury history poses a significant risk for bettors, especially with the high standards set by the 65-game threshold.

Odds are subject to change.

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Find more on Peter Dewey’s NBA betting insights, including his record on futures, at BetStamp.