As the NBA Finals loom between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers, Sports Illustrated explores 10 crucial questions that could influence the outcome of the series and offers a prediction on the eventual NBA champion.
Oklahoma City’s Winning Formula?
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Chris Mannix: Essentially, just be true to themselves. Indiana is strong in several areas, but Oklahoma City outshines them in those same aspects. If Indiana aims to speed up the game, OKC can accelerate even faster. Facing a top-tier lead guard in Indiana? OKC counters with their MVP. While the Pacers have a solid defensive lineup, Oklahoma City’s trio of Dort, Caruso, and Wallace will prove formidable, much to Tyrese Haliburton’s dismay.
Examining the finer details, the Thunder should focus on forcing turnovers, minimizing their own, and dominating in transition. However, on paper, this pairing is a clear mismatch.
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Liam McKeone: Disrupting the Pacers’ fluid passing game is crucial. Halting their fast-break points is vital, but Indiana’s offense reaches its zenith when passes continuously flow around the perimeter. The Knicks were notably slow in retreating on defense during the Eastern Conference finals, but their ultimate downfall was Indiana’s seamless passing through defensive gaps, especially in pick-and-roll situations. Haliburton orchestrates this well, supported by a roster of adept passers, compensating for their lack of individual playmaking outside Haliburton and Pascal Siakam.
If OKC can effectively challenge potential passing lanes without leaving themselves vulnerable to drives or open shots, they can introduce a split-second of hesitation in the Pacers, crucial in the high-stakes environment of the Finals. This tactic is particularly potent against a team like Indiana, which leads all playoff teams in assist percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio, and assist ratio. Should OKC force the Pacers into isolation plays by disrupting their passing rhythm, they stand a great chance of dominating the series.
Indiana’s Strategy for Success?
CM: Utilize Myles Turner effectively. Turner has been impressive this postseason, particularly shining in the second round against Cleveland with 16.2 points per game and a 56.3% success rate from three-point range. However, his performance was less stellar against the Thunder earlier this season, averaging only 11.5 points with poor shooting percentages. For Indiana to triumph, Turner must outperform Chet Holmgren and keep Isaiah Hartenstein from dominating near the rim, potentially delivering the performance of his career.
LM: Capitalizing on catch-and-shoot three-point opportunities. OKC’s defense, while aggressive and effective, sometimes allows a narrow window for these shots due to their strategy of heavy paint protection. This season, the Thunder have allowed their opponents an average of 27.8 three-point attempts from catch-and-shoot situations per game.
This is advantageous for Indiana, which has excelled in converting these opportunities, making 43.9% of their catch-and-shoot threes, averaging 21.5 such attempts per game. If they can consistently exploit this aspect of Oklahoma City’s defense, it could force the Thunder to adjust their defensive strategy, potentially altering the dynamics of the series.
Coaching Advantage?
CM: Mark Daigneault is recognized as a top-tier coach for his strategic acumen and his boldness in player selection. However, Rick Carlisle’s experience and previous championship victory give him a slight edge. His historical success and the reverence he commands within the Pacers organization suggest a coaching advantage in Indiana’s favor.
LM: Indiana’s coaching. Daigneault has shown exceptional skill and adaptability throughout the season, learning from past mistakes and making strategic adjustments during this playoff run. Yet, Carlisle’s championship experience and his ability to maximize his team’s potential by exploiting opponent weaknesses give him a notable advantage. Despite some missteps, particularly against the Knicks, it’s difficult to overlook someone with his track record and experience in crucial moments.
Oklahoma City’s X-Factor?
CM: Chet Holmgren. Absent in the regular-season games against Indiana due to injury, Holmgren remains somewhat of an enigma for the Pacers. With Indiana likely playing a smaller lineup, less emphasis will be on Oklahoma City’s dual-big configuration. Holmgren’s role will be pivotal both in scoring in the paint and in containing Turner defensively.
LM: Jalen Williams. The difference in Williams’s performance was stark between the grueling seven-game series against the Denver Nuggets and the more straightforward five-game series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. In the conference finals, his improved shooting significantly boosted OKC’s offense. Given the attention Shai Gilgeous-Alexander attracts, Williams’s ability to capitalize on open opportunities will be crucial for maintaining their offensive flow, particularly in half-court settings.
The Thunder’s performance dips significantly when Williams is off his game, highlighting his critical role in their success.
Indiana’s X-Factor?
CM: Aaron Nesmith. Following a successful defensive stint against Jalen Brunson, Nesmith now faces the challenge of guarding Gilgeous-Alexander. He will need to disrupt Gilgeous-Alexander’s efficiency while avoiding foul trouble. Offensively, Nesmith must capitalize on opportunities, particularly from the corners, where OKC often leaves space as they focus on interior defense.
LM: Pascal Siakam. Opting for the second-best player on each team might seem straightforward, but it’s accurate. The Pacers face a formidable challenge in scoring against a robust Thunder defense, a struggle even against the weaker Knicks defense in previous rounds. Siakam’s ability to create plays when the offense stalls will be crucial. His performance in the Eastern Conference finals was pivotal, and similar heroics will be essential if Indiana hopes to compete with a more talented Oklahoma City team.
This matchup is critical, as demonstrated in the series against the Timberwolves, where Julius Randle was effectively neutralized by OKC’s focused defense. A similar fate for Siakam could spell quick elimination for Indiana.
Who Stands to Gain Most from a Championship Win?
CM: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Winning both the MVP and a championship in the same season is a rare feat, achieved only by legends like Stephen Curry, LeBron James, and Tim Duncan. A title win would not only reinforce Gilgeous-Alexander’s status as an elite player but also etch his name among the all-time greats.
LM: Sam Presti. Known as one of the premier talent evaluators in the NBA, Presti has been widely praised for building a contender from the ashes of previous iterations of the team. Successfully navigating the departures of key players like James Harden, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Paul George, and rebuilding around a new MVP contender is a testament to his executive prowess. A championship would be the ultimate validation of his strategic vision, potentially elevating him among the top executives of the century.
Which Reserve Player Will Make a Critical Impact?
CM: Alex Caruso. Known for his versatile defensive capabilities, Caruso has been pivotal in key matchups throughout the playoffs. His ability to adapt and perform regardless of the defensive assignment will be crucial for OKC.
LM: Isaiah Joe. Despite a quieter postseason, Joe’s potential for high-impact shooting could play a significant role, especially against an Indiana defense that can sometimes show lapses in discipline. His ability to hit deep shots could provide a crucial boost to OKC’s offense at key moments.
Most Anticipated Matchup?
CM: Tyrese Haliburton vs. Oklahoma City’s defensive trio of Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace. Known for shutting down top guards, OKC’s defense poses a significant challenge for Haliburton, who was instrumental in Indiana’s success against the Knicks. This matchup will be a key factor in determining the series outcome.
LM: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Tyrese Haliburton. This pairing features two of the league’s best playmakers, each known for their unique approach to controlling the game’s pace. Watching these two compete at the highest level will be a highlight of the Finals.
Why Oklahoma City Should Be Confident?
CM: They have consistently been the top team throughout the regular season and the playoffs. Their performance in key areas surpasses Indiana’s, giving them a clear advantage entering the Finals.
LM: OKC stands as the best team globally at this moment. Their deep roster, exceptional defense, and the MVP’s prowess make them formidable opponents. Their comprehensive strengths and consistent performance make confidence a natural stance.
Why Indiana Should Feel Hopeful?
CM: Indiana has consistently outperformed expectations. They’ve overcome long odds, including a 30–1 prediction against them, to dominate in the East. This underdog spirit fuels their confidence against formidable opponents like OKC.
LM: The Pacers have thrived under pressure, pulling off unexpected victories and demonstrating resilience. Their belief in their abilities and their knack for seizing crucial moments give them a fighting chance against the superior Thunder.
Championship Predictions
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