NBA Finals Showdown: Top 5 Stats That Could Swing Thunder vs. Pacers Series!

This Thursday night, the Indiana Pacers are set to visit the Oklahoma City Thunder for the inaugural game of the NBA Finals. It promises to be an exciting clash, with point guards Tyrese Haliburton and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading their respective teams. Both players, known for their impressive skills, are supported by equally strong teams, making for a potentially spectacular showdown.

On paper, the Thunder might seem to have the upper hand as the 68-win team boasting the league MVP. However, the true outcome will only be determined when the game is underway, starting at 8:30 p.m. ET on Thursday. Until then, predictions are just speculations.

Until the game begins, we can delve into the statistics that hint at potential advantages for each team. For instance, whether Indiana’s skill in mid-range shots will transfer to the Finals could be crucial, and Oklahoma City’s ability to disrupt Haliburton’s stellar assist-to-turnover ratio could be a game-changer. These underlying metrics offer a glimpse into the strategic battles that will unfold on the court.

To better understand the dynamics of the upcoming series, here are five key statistics that shed light on the Pacers-Thunder matchup, which will be captivating audiences over the next few weeks.

5.03—Tyrese Haliburton’s assist-to-turnover ratio

Haliburton’s ability to avoid turnovers will be critical in the Finals. Throughout the playoffs, he has maintained an impressive ratio of over five assists per turnover, achieving one or fewer turnovers in half of the playoff games. Handling the ball nearly 96 times per game, his performance is pivotal; he isn’t just a placeholder but a potential successor to Chris Paul in terms of ball security.

This skill will be especially valuable against the Thunder, who excel in capitalizing on turnovers. With the highest average of steals per game in the league during the regular season, OKC’s ability to transition quickly from defense to offense is a central component of their strategy, relying less on conventional playmaking and more on aggressive defense.

It’s a well-known fact in postseason basketball that teams that manage the ball well usually prosper. This is particularly relevant in this matchup, where the Thunder thrive on their opponent’s mistakes. Indiana, on the other hand, has shown they can secure wins when they minimize turnovers, averaging significantly fewer in their playoff victories compared to losses. Haliburton’s role as the orchestrator of the Pacers’ offense is crucial in this aspect.

Facing the Thunder, Haliburton’s challenge will be his toughest yet. If he can continue to minimize errors and keep the Pacers’ offense flowing, OKC will find it difficult to leverage their usual game plan. Conversely, if the Thunder can provoke Haliburton into making mistakes, it could tilt the advantage significantly in their favor. The Finals often boil down to which team can effectively neutralize the opponent’s strengths and exploit their weaknesses; for OKC, that means disrupting Haliburton’s poise.

53.3%—Jalen Williams’s clutch shooting percentage

Williams has displayed remarkable performance during critical moments of this playoff season. Despite having an up-and-down run, his ability to deliver when it matters has stood out. He has clocked the most clutch minutes among his teammates and has made significant contributions during these times. His 57.1% success rate from beyond the arc in clutch moments underscores his ability to perform under pressure.

While Williams’s overall postseason performance may not have mirrored his regular-season success, his clutch contributions cannot be underestimated. Even during challenging games, such as the series against the Denver Nuggets where he averaged below his season scoring rate, Williams proved critical in tight situations. His ability to step up during crucial moments has been a key asset for the Thunder.

As the Finals approach, the Thunder will rely heavily on Williams to continue his clutch performance, especially if he faces difficulties similar to earlier in the playoffs. His ability to rise to the occasion has been proven; maintaining this level of play will be crucial for OKC’s success against the Pacers.

1.029—Pacers’ points per paint touch in the ECF

Despite the Thunder’s strategy of allowing opponents into the paint, they have maintained impressive defensive stats. This approach might seem counterintuitive given their historical defensive efficiency, but it has worked for them by limiting successful shots in these areas.

The Pacers, however, pose a unique challenge. Unlike teams that prioritize paint touches, Indiana’s strategy under Carlisle emphasizes constant movement and opportunistic drives to the paint. This approach has been quite effective, particularly highlighted by their performance in the Eastern Conference finals where they excelled in converting paint touches into points.

The Pacers’ ability to exploit openings in the paint could be key against the Thunder. If they can maintain their efficiency in these scenarios, it could keep their offense potent throughout the series.

9.2—Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s playoff free throw attempts per game

Gilgeous-Alexander’s knack for drawing fouls and earning free throws is well-known, and it’s a trend that has continued into the playoffs. His average attempts per game have increased slightly in the postseason, highlighting his ability to still draw fouls under tighter playoff officiating.

This ability could play a significant role in the Finals, especially against a Pacers team that has struggled with fouls. If Gilgeous-Alexander can continue to exploit this, it could provide OKC with crucial points, particularly when their other offensive strategies are stifled.